| Literature DB >> 35193439 |
Francisco Martín-Rodríguez1,2, Ancor Sanz-García3, Guillermo J Ortega3,4, Juan F Delgado-Benito5, Eduardo García Villena6,7, Cristina Mazas Pérez-Oleaga6, Raúl López-Izquierdo8, Miguel A Castro Villamor2.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive value of the quick COVID-19 Severity Index (qCSI) and the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) for 90-day mortality amongst COVID-19 patients.Entities:
Keywords: Clinical decision rules COVID-19 Risk Scores NEWS; qCSI
Mesh:
Year: 2022 PMID: 35193439 PMCID: PMC8881067 DOI: 10.1080/07853890.2022.2042590
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Ann Med ISSN: 0785-3890 Impact factor: 5.348
Demographic and clinical characteristics for 90-day mortality.
| 90-day mortality | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Characteristicsa | Total No. | Non-survivors | Survivors | |
| No. with data | 2961 | 948 (32) | 2013 (68) | |
| Age (years) | 79 (66–88) | 86 (79–90) | 74 (60–85) | <.001 |
| <50 | 260 (8.8) | 10 (1.1) | 250 (12.4) | |
| 50–65 | 460 (15.5) | 36 (3.8) | 424 (21.1) | <.001 |
| 66–79 | 774 (26.1) | 194 (20.5) | 580 (28.8) | <.001 |
| >80 | 1467 (49.5) | 708 (74.7) | 759 (37.7) | <.001 |
| Sex, female | 1457 (49.2) | 439 (46.3) | 1018 (50.6) | .030 |
| Urban area | 1551 (52.4) | 473 (49.9) | 1078 (53.6) | .063 |
| Nursing homes | 1080 (36.5) | 526 (55.5) | 554 (27.5) | <.001 |
| Basal evaluation | ||||
| RR (breaths/min) | 16 (13–25) | 24 (14–26) | 14 (12–22) | <.001 |
| SpO2 (%) | 94 (90–96) | 90 (84–95) | 95 (92–97) | <.001 |
| FiO2 (%) | 0.21 (0.21–0.21) | 0.21 (0.21–0.28) | 0.21 (0.21–0.21) | <.001 |
| SBP (mmHg) | 126 (111–144) | 123 (106–144) | 127 (114–144) | <.001 |
| Heart rate (beats/min) | 87 (76–100) | 89 (75–104) | 86 (76–98) | .001 |
| Temperature (°C) | 36.6 (36.2–37.3) | 36.7 (36.1–37.4) | 36.6 (36.2–37.2) | .207 |
| GCS (points) | 15 (15-15) | 15 (13–15) | 15 (15-15) | <.001 |
| qCSI-19 SI (points) | 1 (1–5) | 5 (1–6) | 0 (0–2) | <.001 |
| NEWS (points) | 4 (2–8) | 8 (5–10) | 3 (2–6) | <.001 |
| CCI (points) | 1 (1–3) | 2 (1-4) | 1 (1–3) | <.001 |
| AIDS | 5 (0.2) | 2 (0.2) | 3 (0.1) | .702 |
| Metastatic disease | 42 (1.4) | 22 (2.3) | 20 (1) | .004 |
| Liver disease severe | 75 (2.5) | 19 (2) | 56 (2.8) | .209 |
| Lymphoma | 17 (0.6) | 6 (0.6) | 11 (0.5) | .772 |
| Leukemia | 38 (1.3) | 12 (1.3) | 26 (1.3) | .954 |
| Solid tumour localized | 383 (12.9) | 130 (13.7) | 253 (12.6) | 0.387 |
| DM end organ damage | 147 (5) | 67 (7.1) | 80 (4) | <.001 |
| Severe CKD | 454 (15.3) | 203 (21.4) | 251 (12.5) | <.001 |
| Hemiplegia | 87 (2.9) | 48 (5.1) | 39 (1.9) | <.001 |
| DM uncomplicated | 566 (19.1) | 197 (20.8) | 369 (18.3) | .114 |
| Liver disease mild | 89 (3) | 28 (3) | 61 (3) | .909 |
| Peptic ulcer | 84 (2.8) | 34 (3.6) | 50 (2.5) | .092 |
| Connective | 92 (3.1) | 29 (3.1) | 63 (3.1) | .918 |
| COPD | 310 (10.5) | 117 (12.3) | 193 (9.6) | .022 |
| Dementia | 719 (24.3) | 385 (40.6) | 334 (16.6) | <.001 |
| Cerebrovascular disease | 322 (10.9) | 156 (16.5) | 166 (8.2) | <.001 |
| Peripheral vascular disease | 255 (8.6) | 100 (10.5) | 155 (7.7) | .010 |
| Congestive heart failure | 437 (14.8) | 190 (20) | 247 (12.3) | <.001 |
| Myocardial infarction | 280 (9.5) | 119 (12.6) | 161 (8) | <.001 |
| Outcomes | ||||
| Hospitalization | 2328 (78.6) | 901 (95) | 1427 (70.9) | <.001 |
| ICU | 162 (5.5) | 73 (7.7) | 89 (4.4) | <.001 |
Figures represent the descriptive statistics and p value of the comparison between non-survivors and survivors.
RR: Respiratory rate; SpO2: pulse oximetry saturation; FiO2: fraction of inspired oxygen; GCS: Glasgow coma scale; qCSI-19 SI: quick COVID-19 Severity Index; NEWS: National Early Warning Score; CCI: Charlson comorbidity index; AIDS: acquired immunodeficiency syndrome; DM: Diabetes mellitus; CKD: chronic kidney disease; COPD: chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; ICU: intensive care unit.
aValues expressed as total number (fraction) and medians [25–75‰], as appropriate.
Figure 1.Predicted probability of death and observed distribution of patients across score value of NEWS for 1-day (A) and 90-day mortality (B) and qCSI for 1-day (C) and 90-day mortality (D). The grey area of the trend line corresponds to 95% confidence interval of the predicted probability of death (trend line). The bars correspond to the number of patients alive (grey) or dead (black) in the training cohort. The values within parenthesis refer to the range of score values included in each bar.
Figure 2.Predictive validity results of each model. Decision curve analysis for 1-day (A) and 90-day mortality (C) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for 1-day (B) and 90-day mortality (D) of qCSI and NEWS. Grey line corresponds to qCSI results and the black line to NEWS results.
Predictive validity of qCSI and NEWS for different mortality time points.
| 1-day | 2-day | 7-day | 14-day | 30-day | 90-day | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEWS | 0.825 | 0.823 | 0.792 | 0.780 | 0.779 | 0.777 |
| qCSI | 0.769 | 0.782 | 0.760 | 0.745 | 0.750 | 0.749 |
| <.001 | <.001 | <.001 | <.001 | <.001 | <.001 |
Figures represent the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for each score, and the p value (Delong’s test) of the AUCs comparison at each time point.
NEWS: National Early Warning Score; qCOVID: quick COVID-19 Severity Index.
Statistical details of the qCSI and NEWS for different point times analyzed.
| Mortality | Specificity | Sensitivity | PPV | NPV | LR + | LR − |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-day | ||||||
| NEWS | 72.1 (56.5–87.5) | 51.5 (33.7–69.2) | 32.4 (18.2–46.7) | 96.7 (95.8–97.6) | 8.94 (1.95–15.9) | 0.55 (0.39–0.71) |
| qCSI | 76.1 (59.6–92.4) | 47.9 (28.6–67.2) | 19.2 (12.9–25.5) | 96.3 (95.4–97.2) | 4.29 (2.48–6.09) | 0.63 (0.47–0.78) |
| 2-day | ||||||
| NEWS | 72.5 (57.1–88) | 50.4 (32.5–68.2) | 39.2 (24.8–53.7) | 95.2 (93.9–96.5) | 10.5 (2.04–19.1) | 0.56 (0.4–0.72) |
| qCSI | 76.7 (60.3–93.1) | 48.4 (29–67.8) | 27.7 (19–36.5) | 94.8 (93.5–96.1) | 4.96 (2.78–7.13) | 0.61 (0.45–0.77) |
| 7-day | ||||||
| NEWS | 74.1 (58.8–89.5) | 45.1 (27.4–62.9) | 53.1 (40.6–65.7) | 88.1 (85.1–90.7) | 6.76 (3.29–10.2) | 0.63 (0.47–0.78) |
| qCSI | 78.5 (62.4–94.9) | 43.4 (24.1 (62.8) | 48 (36.2–59.8) | 87.1 (84.6–89.7) | 5.93 (2.54–9.33) | 0.67 (0.52–0.82) |
| 14-day | ||||||
| NEWS | 75.1 (59.8–90.2) | 43.1 (25.4–60.6) | 60.3(48.5–72.1) | 83.2 (79.8–86.5) | 7.5 (2.97–12.03) | 0.65 (0.5–0.8) |
| qCSI | 79.6 (63.5–95.7) | 40.7 (21.5–59.8) | 56.1 (44.4–67.7) | 81.8 (78.8–84.9) | 6.16 (2.42–9.91) | 0.7 (0.56–0.84) |
| 30-day | ||||||
| NEWS | 75.6 (60.5–90.8) | 42.2 (24.7–59.7) | 65.3 (53.5–77.1) | 80.2 (76.4–83.9) | 6.96 (3.22–10.6) | 0.66 (0.52–0.81) |
| qCSI | 80.3 (64.3–96.3) | 39.9 (20.6–59.1) | 60.4 (49.6–71.2) | 78.8 (75.3–82.3) | 5.8 (2.71–8.89) | 0.7 (0.56–0.85) |
| 90-day | ||||||
| NEWS | 76.3 (61.2–91.4) | 41.3 (23.9–58.7) | 69.7 (58.4–81.1) | 76.7 (72.6–80.7) | 9.3 (3.19–15.4) | 0.67 (0.53–0.81) |
| qCSI | 81.1 (65.1–97) | 38.8 (19.7–57.9) | 65.2 (54.7–75.6) | 75.1 (71.3–79) | 5.85 (3.08–8.62) | 0.71 (0.57–0.85) |
Figures represent different metrics derived from the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for each score at each time point.
NEWS: National Early Warning Score; qCSI: quick COVID-19 Severity Index; PPV: positive predictive value; NPV: negative predictive value; LR: likelihood ratio.
Bracketed number indicate 95% confidence interval.