| Literature DB >> 34952596 |
Humphrey R Mkali1, Erik J Reaves2, Shabbir M Lalji3, Abdul-Wahid Al-Mafazy3, Joseph J Joseph3, Abdullah S Ali4, Faiza B Abbas4, Mohamed H Ali4, Wahida S Hassan4, Chonge Kitojo5, Naomi Serbantez5, Bilali I Kabula3, Ssanyu S Nyinondi3, Donal Bisanzio6, Mike McKay6, Erin Eckert6, Richard Reithinger6, Jeremiah M Ngondi6.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Over the past two decades, Zanzibar substantially reduced malaria burden. As malaria decreases, sustainable improvements in control interventions may increasingly depend on accurate knowledge of malaria risk factors to further target interventions. This study aimed to investigate the risk factors associated with malaria infection in Zanzibar.Entities:
Keywords: Elimination; Malaria; Travel; Vector control; Zanzibar
Mesh:
Substances:
Year: 2021 PMID: 34952596 PMCID: PMC8710018 DOI: 10.1186/s12936-021-04025-1
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Malar J ISSN: 1475-2875 Impact factor: 2.979
Fig. 1Distribution of location of index case households by Island and year, 2012–2019. *August to December 2012
Fig. 2Study individuals included in the analysis from Zanzibar’s Malaria Case Notification and Reactive Case Detection systems, 2012–2019
Annual number of index cases, households followed-up and household members tested by year and Island, 2012–2019
| Year | Unguja | Pemba | Total | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index cases reported (N) | Index cases investigated: n (%) | Households followed-up | Household members tested (N) | Household members positive: n (%) | Index cases reported (N) | Index cases investigated: n (%) | Households followed-up | Household members tested (N) | Household members positive: n (%) | Index cases reported (N) | Index cases investigated: n (%) | Households followed-up | Household members tested (N) | Household members positive: n (%) | |
| 2012a | 239 | 97 (40.6) | 151 | 569 | 35 (6.2) | 171 | 47 (27.5) | 48 | 288 | 14 (4.9) | 410 | 144 (35.1) | 199 | 857 | 49 (5.7) |
| 2013 | 2005 | 734 (36.6) | 1526 | 8606 | 503 (5.8) | 572 | 309 (54.0) | 475 | 2,311 | 148 (6.4) | 2577 | 1043 (40.5) | 2001 | 10,917 | 651 (5.9) |
| 2014 | 2815 | 1449 (51.5) | 2571 | 10,698 | 592 (5.5) | 619 | 488 (78.8) | 604 | 2973 | 172 (5.8) | 3434 | 1937 (56.4) | 3175 | 13,671 | 764 (5.6) |
| 2015 | 3603 | 2004 (55.6) | 2532 | 10,205 | 575 (5.6) | 722 | 616 (85.3) | 644 | 3021 | 131 (4.3) | 4325 | 2620 (60.6) | 3176 | 13,226 | 706 (5.3) |
| 2016 | 2391 | 1028 (42.9) | 1479 | 5233 | 263 (5.0) | 810 | 562 (69.4) | 766 | 3,158 | 81 (2.6) | 3201 | 1590 (49.7) | 2245 | 8391 | 344 (4.1) |
| 2017 | 3438 | 1068 (31.1) | 2148 | 6334 | 251 (3.9) | 700 | 282 (40.3) | 414 | 1938 | 73 (3.8) | 4138 | 1350 (32.6) | 2562 | 8272 | 324 (3.9) |
| 2018 | 4541 | 1827 (40.2) | 2254 | 7776 | 313 (4.0) | 1,051 | 463 (44.1) | 713 | 3280 | 134 (4.1) | 5592 | 2290 (40.9) | 2967 | 11,056 | 447 (4.0) |
| 2019 | 6117 | 4 310 (70.5) | 4237 | 11,823 | 411 (3.5) | 853 | 787 (92.3) | 881 | 3808 | 127 (3.3) | 6970 | 5,097 (73.1) | 5118 | 15,631 | 538 (3.4) |
| Total | 25,149 | 12,517 (49.8) | 16,898 | 61,244 | 2943 (4.8) | 5498 | 3554 (64.6) | 4545 | 20,777 | 880 (4.2) | 30,647 | 16,271 (53.1) | 21,443 | 82,021 | 3823 (4.7) |
aAugust to December 2012
Univariate logistic regression analysis of risk factors associated with a positive malaria rapid diagnostic test
| Explanatory variable | Total tested | Malaria positive | Malaria positivity (%) | Odds ratio (95% CI) | P-value | P-trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Individual factors | |||||||
| Gender (N = 80,532) | Female | 41,623 | 2103 | 5.1 | 1.0 | ||
| Male | 38,909 | 1714 | 4.4 | 0.9 (0.8–0.9) | < 0.001 | ||
| Age group (N = 80,275) | ≥ 45 years | 9207 | 181 | 2.0 | 1.0 | < 0.001 | |
| 35–44 years | 9016 | 266 | 3.0 | 1.5 (1.2–1.8) | < 0.001 | ||
| 25–34 years | 11,816 | 580 | 4.9 | 2.5 (2.1–2.9) | < 0.001 | ||
| 15–24 years | 16,887 | 838 | 5.0 | 2.6 (2.2–3.1) | < 0.001 | ||
| 5–14 years | 21,948 | 1311 | 6.0 | 3.2 (2.7–3.7) | < 0.001 | ||
| < 5 years | 11,401 | 642 | 5.6 | 2.9 (2.5–3.4) | < 0.001 | ||
| Self-reported fever in last two weeks (N = 73,273) | No | 70,384 | 2151 | 3.1 | 1.0 | ||
| Yes | 2889 | 1354 | 46.9 | 32.1 (29.3–35.1) | < 0.001 | ||
| History of travel during last 30 days (N = 76,970) | No | 55,267 | 2103 | 3.8 | 1.0 | < 0.001 | |
| Within Zanzibar | 2360 | 66 | 2.8 | 0.8 (0.6–0.9) | 0.027 | ||
| Outside Zanzibar | 19,343 | 1506 | 7.8 | 2.3 (2.1–2.4) | < 0.001 | ||
| Number of household members who travelled outside Zanzibar (N = 82,021) | None | 48,966 | 1751 | 3.6 | 1.0 | < 0.001 | |
| 1 | 10,977 | 503 | 4.6 | 1.4 (1.3–1.6) | < 0.001 | ||
| ≥ 2 | 22,078 | 1569 | 7.1 | 2.3 (2.1–2.5) | < 0.001 | ||
| Slept under an LLIN the previous night (N = 74,119) | No | 29,316 | 1658 | 5.7 | 1.0 | ||
| Yes | 44,803 | 1864 | 4.2 | 0.7 (0.6–0.7) | < 0.001 | ||
| Household factors | |||||||
| Net access (N = 80,202)a | No access | 15,756 | 922 | 5.9 | 1.0 | < 0.001 | |
| < 80% | 24,071 | 1344 | 5.6 | 0.9 (0.8–1.0) | 0.058 | ||
| ≥ 80%a | 40,375 | 1492 | 3.7 | 0.6 (0.6–0.7) | < 0.001 | ||
| IRS in the last 12 months (N = 82,021) | No | 21,934 | 1173 | 5.3 | 1.0 | ||
| Yes | 60,087 | 2650 | 4.4 | 0.8 (0.7–0.9) | < 0.001 | ||
| Geographical factors | |||||||
| Zone (N = 82,021) | Pemba | 20,777 | 880 | 4.2 | 1.0 | ||
| Unguja | 61,244 | 2943 | 4.8 | 1.2 (1.0–1.4) | 0.019 | ||
| Total weekly rainfall for previous 9 weeks (N = 82,021) | Increments of 10 mm | 1.0 (0.9–1.0) | 0.757 | ||||
CI, confidence interval; LLIN, long-lasting insecticidal net; IRS, indoor residual spraying of households with insecticide
aHousehold level access to LLIN (universal coverage ≥ 80%)
Multivariate logistic regression analysis of risk factors associated with a positive malaria rapid diagnostic test (N = 66,756)
| Explanatory variable | Odds ratio (95% CI) | P-value | P-trend | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Individual factors | ||||
| Gender | Female | 1.0 | ||
| Male | 0.8 (0.7–0.9) | < 0.001 | ||
| Age group | ≥ 45 years | 1.0 | < 0.001 | |
| 35–44 years | 1.4 (1.2–1.8) | 0.001 | ||
| 25–34 years | 2.2 (1.8–2.7) | < 0.001 | ||
| 15–24 years | 2.4 (1.9–2.9) | < 0.001 | ||
| 5–14 years | 3.2 (2.7–3.9) | < 0.001 | ||
| < 5 years | 2.5 (2.0–3.0) | < 0.001 | ||
| Self-reported fever in last two weeks | No | 1.0 | ||
| Yes | 35.7 (32.3–39.5) | < 0.001 | ||
| History of travel during last 30 days | No | 1.0 | < 0.001 | |
| Within Zanzibar | 0.8 (0.6–1.0) | 0.104 | ||
| Outside Zanzibar | 2.5 (2.3–2.8) | < 0.001 | ||
| Malaria prevention | ||||
| Net access | No access | 1.0 | < 0.001 | |
| < 80% | 0.8 (0.7–0.9) | 0.003 | ||
| ≥ 80%* | 0.6 (0.5–0.6) | < 0.001 | ||
| Slept under an LLIN the previous night | No | 1.0 | ||
| Yes | 0.9 (0.7–0.9) | 0.036 | ||
| IRS in the last 12 months | No | 1.0 | ||
| Yes | 0.8 (0.7–0.9) | 0.002 | ||
| Interaction term: Slept under an LLIN the previous night and household received IRS in the last 12 months | 0.7 (0.6–0.8) | < 0.001 | ||
| Geographical factors | ||||
| Zone | Pemba | 1.0 | ||
| Unguja | 1.2 (1.0–1.5) | 0.034 | ||
CI, confidence Interval; LLIN, long-lasting insecticidal net; IRS, indoor residual spraying of household with insecticide