| Literature DB >> 34880677 |
Jinlian Jin1, Haiyan Zhou1, Shulin Sun1, Zhe Tian1, Haibing Ren1, Jinwu Feng1.
Abstract
PURPOSE: Predicting lymph node metastasis (LNM) after endoscopic resection is crucial in determining whether patients with pT1NxM0 colorectal cancer (CRC) should undergo additional surgery. This study was aimed to develop a predictive model that can be used to reduce the current likelihood of overtreatment. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We recruited a total of 1194 consecutive CRC patients with pT1NxM0 who underwent endoscopic or surgical resection at the Gezhouba Central Hospital of Sinopharm between January 1, 2006, and August 31, 2021. The random forest classifier (RFC) and generalized linear algorithm (GLM) were used to screen out the variables that greatly affected the LNM prediction, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) were applied to assess the accuracy of predictive models.Entities:
Keywords: colorectal cancer; generalized linear model; lymph nodes metastasis; machine learning; pT1NxM0; prediction model; random forest classifier
Year: 2021 PMID: 34880677 PMCID: PMC8645952 DOI: 10.2147/CMAR.S337516
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Cancer Manag Res ISSN: 1179-1322 Impact factor: 3.989
Figure 1Flow chart of this study.
Baseline Demographic and Clinical Characteristics of the Study Cohort
| Variables | Subgroups | Training Cohort | Validation Cohort | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | LNM(-) | LNM(+) | P-value | Overall | LNM(-) | LNM(+) | P-value | ||
| N=835 | N=772 | N=63 | N=359 | N=331 | N=28 | ||||
| Sex (%) | Female | 178 (21.3) | 142 (18.4) | 36 (57.1) | <0.001 | 81 (22.6) | 68 (20.5) | 13 (46.4) | 0.004 |
| Male | 657 (78.7) | 630 (81.6) | 27 (42.9) | 278 (77.4) | 263 (79.5) | 15 (53.6) | |||
| Age, y | 48.00 [34.00, 63.00] | 48.00 [34.00, 63.00] | 47.00 [34.00, 62.00] | 0.327 | 50.00 [36.00, 63.50] | 51.00 [36.00, 64.00] | 44.50 [30.50, 52.50] | 0.037 | |
| BMI, kg/m2 | 24.50 [21.30, 27.80] | 24.60 [21.20, 27.90] | 23.90 [22.05, 26.40] | 0.41 | 24.50 [21.25, 27.80] | 24.50 [21.40, 27.90] | 24.45 [20.80, 27.07] | 0.506 | |
| Smoking (%) | No | 413 (49.5) | 384 (49.7) | 29 (46.0) | 0.663 | 187 (52.1) | 175 (52.9) | 12 (42.9) | 0.411 |
| Yes | 422 (50.5) | 388 (50.3) | 34 (54.0) | 172 (47.9) | 156 (47.1) | 16 (57.1) | |||
| Tumor site (%) | Colon | 398 (47.7) | 365 (47.3) | 33 (52.4) | 0.517 | 166 (46.2) | 157 (47.4) | 9 (32.1) | 0.174 |
| Rectum | 437 (52.3) | 407 (52.7) | 30 (47.6) | 193 (53.8) | 174 (52.6) | 19 (67.9) | |||
| Endoscope type (%) | Non-polypoid | 67 (8.0) | 52 (6.7) | 15 (23.8) | <0.001 | 27 (7.5) | 17 (5.1) | 10 (35.7) | <0.001 |
| Polypoid | 768 (92.0) | 720 (93.3) | 48 (76.2) | 332 (92.5) | 314 (94.9) | 18 (64.3) | |||
| Treatment (%) | Endoscopic+surgery | 248 (29.7) | 226 (29.3) | 22 (34.9) | 0.424 | 109 (30.4) | 98 (29.6) | 11 (39.3) | 0.392 |
| Endoscopic | 587 (70.3) | 546 (70.7) | 41 (65.1) | 250 (69.6) | 233 (70.4) | 17 (60.7) | |||
| Grade (%) | High | 167 (20.0) | 121 (15.7) | 46 (73.0) | <0.001 | 82 (22.8) | 61 (18.4) | 21 (75.0) | <0.001 |
| Low | 668 (80.0) | 651 (84.3) | 17 (27.0) | 277 (77.2) | 270 (81.6) | 7 (25.0) | |||
| Histology (%) | ADE | 688 (82.4) | 645 (83.5) | 43 (68.3) | 0.004 | 292 (81.3) | 276 (83.4) | 16 (57.1) | 0.002 |
| M-ADE | 147 (17.6) | 127 (16.5) | 20 (31.7) | 67 (18.7) | 55 (16.6) | 12 (42.9) | |||
| DSI (%) | sm1 | 335 (40.1) | 311 (40.3) | 24 (38.1) | 0.868 | 157 (43.7) | 145 (43.8) | 12 (42.9) | 0.527 |
| sm2 | 360 (43.1) | 333 (43.1) | 27 (42.9) | 139 (38.7) | 126 (38.1) | 13 (46.4) | |||
| sm3 | 140 (16.8) | 128 (16.6) | 12 (19.0) | 63 (17.5) | 60 (18.1) | 3 (10.7) | |||
| Background adenoma (%) | No | 263 (31.5) | 211 (27.3) | 52 (82.5) | <0.001 | 112 (31.2) | 88 (26.6) | 24 (85.7) | <0.001 |
| Yes | 572 (68.5) | 561 (72.7) | 11 (17.5) | 247 (68.8) | 243 (73.4) | 4 (14.3) | |||
| Lymphovascular invasion (%) | No | 581 (69.6) | 568 (73.6) | 13 (20.6) | <0.001 | 251 (69.9) | 246 (74.3) | 5 (17.9) | <0.001 |
| Yes | 254 (30.4) | 204 (26.4) | 50 (79.4) | 108 (30.1) | 85 (25.7) | 23 (82.1) | |||
| Venous invasion (%) | No | 641 (76.8) | 634 (82.1) | 7 (11.1) | <0.001 | 272 (75.8) | 270 (81.6) | 2 (7.1) | <0.001 |
| Yes | 194 (23.2) | 138 (17.9) | 56 (88.9) | 87 (24.2) | 61 (18.4) | 26 (92.9) | |||
| Neurovascular invasion (%) | No | 150 (18.0) | 139 (18.0) | 11 (17.5) | 1 | 58 (16.2) | 55 (16.6) | 3 (10.7) | 0.584 |
| Yes | 685 (82.0) | 633 (82.0) | 52 (82.5) | 301 (83.8) | 276 (83.4) | 25 (89.3) | |||
| Tumor budding (%) | No | 656 (78.6) | 642 (83.2) | 14 (22.2) | <0.001 | 287 (79.9) | 282 (85.2) | 5 (17.9) | <0.001 |
| Yes | 179 (21.4) | 130 (16.8) | 49 (77.8) | 72 (20.1) | 49 (14.8) | 23 (82.1) | |||
| Poorly differentiated clusters (%) | High | 245 (29.3) | 218 (28.2) | 27 (42.9) | 0.016 | 108 (30.1) | 96 (29.0) | 12 (42.9) | 0.285 |
| Low | 308 (36.9) | 294 (38.1) | 14 (22.2) | 123 (34.3) | 116 (35.0) | 7 (25.0) | |||
| None | 282 (33.8) | 260 (33.7) | 22 (34.9) | 128 (35.7) | 119 (36.0) | 9 (32.1) | |||
| CA199 (%), U/mL | 32.00 [22.00, 42.00] | 31.00 [21.00, 41.00] | 39.00 [33.00, 46.50] | <0.001 | 31.00 [18.00, 44.00] | 32.00 [17.00, 46.00] | 37.00 [35.00, 47.00] | <0.001 | |
| CEA (%), ng/mL | 2.13 [1.43, 2.84] | 2.11 [1.42, 2.81] | 2.32 [1.73, 3.18] | <0.001 | 2.57 [1.23, 3.26] | 2.19 [1.58, 3.11] | 2.65 [1.15, 3.25] | <0.001 | |
| Neutrophil count,10^9 | 3.02 [2.29, 3.66] | 2.90 [2.25, 3.52] | 4.85 [4.06, 5.25] | <0.001 | 3.02 [2.36, 3.62] | 2.89 [2.30, 3.54] | 4.33 [3.72, 4.89] | <0.001 | |
| Lymphocyte count, 10^9 | 1.71 [1.25, 2.17] | 1.65 [1.23, 2.13] | 2.12 [1.87, 2.36] | <0.001 | 1.74 [1.33, 2.14] | 1.66 [1.29, 2.10] | 2.00 [1.78, 2.54] | <0.001 | |
| Platelet count, 10^9 | 185.00 [119.50, 242.00] | 188.00 [120.00, 245.00] | 165.00 [102.00, 215.50] | 0.007 | 168.00 [118.00, 228.00] | 168.00 [117.50, 231.50] | 162.00 [126.25, 208.00] | 0.695 | |
| NLR | 1.75 [1.35, 2.38] | 1.70 [1.33, 2.33] | 2.21 [1.79, 2.64] | <0.001 | 1.73 [1.39, 2.28] | 1.71 [1.35, 2.25] | 2.14 [1.64, 2.39] | 0.009 | |
| PLR | 106.40 [72.27, 144.20] | 109.18 [74.20, 150.56] | 73.68 [47.86, 103.30] | <0.001 | 99.10 [65.83, 138.02] | 100.00 [66.32, 143.53] | 85.40 [57.88, 110.94] | 0.008 | |
| PNR | 60.35 [40.21, 85.02] | 64.12 [42.42, 87.09] | 34.75 [21.22, 43.61] | <0.001 | 56.30 [37.78, 78.96] | 60.77 [40.02, 80.99] | 37.27 [28.59, 45.60] | <0.001 | |
Abbreviations: BMI, body mass index; ADE, adenocarcinoma; M-ADE, mucinous adenocarcinoma; DSI, depth of submucosal invasion; CA199, carbohydrate antigen199; CEA, carcinoembryonic antigen; NLR, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio; PLR, platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio; PNR, platelet-to- neutrophil ratio.
Figure 2Development and verification of the RFC model. (A) The influencing factors of LNM were ordered according to the mean decreased Gini index. (B) Ten-fold cross-validation of the performance of the prediction model. (C) Clinical impact curve for the evaluation of RFC model.
Figure 3Nomogram to estimate the risk of LNM. (A) Nomogram used to predict LNM risk, showing the proportion of parameters included in the scoring table (%). (B) Calibration curves for internal validation of the nomogram. (C) Predicted risk histogram comparing predicted risk of the nomogram with the observed frequency.
Figure 4The ROC curve analyses for models in the study cohort. (A) Internal training set. (B) Internal testing set. (C) External validation set.
Figure 5Decision curve analysis compares the net benefits associated with predicting LNM using RFC and GLM models. (A) Internal training set. (B) Internal testing set. (C) External validation set.