| Literature DB >> 34751958 |
Hanghang Wang1, Wen Tang1, Quanyue Hu1, Hao Hu1, Rui Tang1, Jia Deng2, Daoxin Wang1, Yan Zhao1.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a highly heterogeneous disease accompanied by high mortality. Our goal was to investigate the risk factors for 28-day mortality and then establish a predictive online nomogram for ARDS originating from pulmonary disease (ARDSp).Entities:
Keywords: ARDSp; mortality; nomogram; risk factors
Mesh:
Year: 2021 PMID: 34751958 PMCID: PMC9285379 DOI: 10.1111/eci.13708
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Eur J Clin Invest ISSN: 0014-2972 Impact factor: 5.722
FIGURE 1Research process diagram
Baseline characteristics of ARDSp patients
| Training cohort ( | External validation cohort ( | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Survivors ( | Nonsurvivors ( |
| Survivors ( | Nonsurvivors ( |
| |
| Age (year, | 66.88 ± 8.82 | 75.50 ± 12.18 | .000*** | 56.67 ± 16.96 | 67.86 ± 14.95 | .027* |
| Female/male ( | 37/57 | 23/68 | .041* | 10/11 | 9/13 | .628 |
| Urban/rural ( | 82/12 | 80/11 | .889 | 18/3 | 17/5 | .698 |
| Onset time (days, | 97.67 ± 18.07 | 93.16 ± 16.51 | .078 | 15.81 ± 13.82 | 13.56 ± 19.71 | .668 |
| Oxygenation index | 173.76 ± 49.01 | 169.07 ± 63.60 | .575 | 176.44 ± 54.96 | 179.40 ± 53.44 | .859 |
| Mild ( | 27 (28.72%) | 32 (35.16%) | .09 | 7 (33.3%) | 6 (27.3%) | .943 |
| Moderate ( | 60 (63.83%) | 45 (49.45%) | 12 (57.1%) | 13 (59.1%) | ||
| Severe ( | 7 (7.45%) | 14 (15.38%) | 2 (9.5%) | 3 (13.6%) | ||
| Vital signs in admission | ||||||
| Heart rate (bpm, | 102.38 ± 18.62 | 96.33 ± 18.62 | .166 | 96.24 ± 19.28 | 105.36 ± 8.04 | .116 |
| Respiratory rate (times/min) | 23 (20–25.25) | 20 (20–25) | .153 | 22 (20–29) | 26 (21.75–30.25) | .212 |
| Mean blood pressure (mmHg) | 97.68 ± 18.07 | 93.16 ± 16.51 | .078 | 90.55 ± 13.23 | 90.79 ± 19.91 | .964 |
| Temperature (°C) | 36.8 (36.5–37.83) | 36.8 (36.5–37.6) | .592 | 36.6 (36.4–37.25) | 37.15 (36.5–37.85) | .050 |
| Laboratory analysis | ||||||
| Platelet (×109/L) | 162.5 (94–217.5) | 175 (101–267) | .412 | 195 (154–298.5) | 171 (97.75–261.5) | .159 |
| Lymphocyte (×109/L, | 0.82 ± 0.40 | 0.82 ± 0.46 | .963 | 0.84 ± 0.50 | 1.64 ± 3.67 | .325 |
| Neutrophil (×109/L, | 9.88 (6.58–14.58) | 10.63 (6.65–15.16) | .487 | 6.82 (5.27–9.71) | 13.87 (6.51–16.66) | .023* |
| CRP (ng/ml, | 135.42 (65.45–200) | 93.37 (28.52–159.32) | .002** | 136.12 (113.23–158.39) | 96.3 (35.9–156.49) | .084 |
| Procalcitonin (ng/ml) | 0.71 (0.21–3.79) | 0.50 (0.22–3.3) | .676 | 0.343 (0.19–0.81) | 1.57 (0.16–8.51) | .106 |
| Albumin (g/L) | 30.42 ± 5.88 | 28.16 ± 5.44 | .007** | 30.09 ± 5.67 | 29.37 ± 6.39 | .701 |
| Blood glucose (mmol/L) | 8.05 (6.4–10.25) | 8.2 (6.38–10.6) | .869 | 7.47 (6.05–9.21) | 8.9 (7.05–11.6) | .191 |
| Creatinine (μmol/L) | 71.75 (55.55–109.55) | 85.2 (54.4–126.4) | .311 | 64.7 (57–78.25) | 87.5 (62.5–154.45) | .053 |
| Alanine transaminase (U/L) | 21.5 (13–49) | 29 (15–51) | .288 | 27 (16–44) | 25.5 (11.75–44.25) | .488 |
| Aspartate transaminase (U/L) | 29 (21–65.5) | 34 (23–67) | .283 | 35 (25–58) | 37.5 (20–73.25) | .752 |
| Coexisting conditions | ||||||
| Hypertension ( | 41.49% | 45.05% | .625 | 38.1% | 43.5% | .364 |
| Heart failure ( | 15.96% | 30.77% | .017* | 38.1% | 31.8% | .755 |
| Myocardial infarction ( | 2.13% | 7.69% | .079 | 0 | 1 4.5% | / |
| Coronary heart disease ( | 13.83% | 14.29% | .929 | 14.3% | 18.2% | 1 |
| Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease ( | 19.15% | 19.78% | .914 | 19.0% | 36.4% | .310 |
| MODS ( | 6.38% | 24.18% | .001** | 4.8% | 54.5% | .000*** |
| Scores | ||||||
| SOFA, | 4.79 ± 1.16 | 5.25 ± 2.89 | .001** | 3.33 ± 3.35 | 7.14 ± 5.27 | .008** |
| APACHEⅡ, | 16.25 ± 5.33 | 18.04 ± 5.30 | .006** | 13.48 ± 7.60 | 20.18 ± 7.49 | .006** |
*p < .05, **p < .01, ***p < .001.
FIGURE 2The nomogram for predicting ARDSp patients’ 28‐day mortality based on age, sex, CRP and albumin levels, and MODS. Age: years; sex: 0: female, 1: male; CRP: ng/ml; albumin: g/L; MODS: 0: without MODS, 1: with MODS
FIGURE 3Example of the online nomogram. A 66‐year‐old man with CRP 113 ng/ml, albumin 29 g/L, and MODS had a predicted 28‐day mortality rate of 85.6% (95% CI 0.675–0.944)
FIGURE 4ROC curves to predict 28‐day mortality in ARDSp patients. A, ROC curve for the training cohort. B ROC curve for the external validation cohort
FIGURE 5Calibration plots of the nomogram. A, The calibration plot for the training cohort; B, the calibration plot for the external validation cohort
FIGURE 6DCA of the nomogram. A, DCA for the training cohort; B, DCA for the external validation cohort