The change in endometrial thickness following progesterone exposure correlates with in vitro fertilization outcome after transfer of vitrified-warmed blastocysts.

PURPOSE: To determine if the change in endometrial thickness following exogenous progesterone (P) initiation correlates with outcome following autologous transfer of a single thawed blastocyst.
METHODS: The study is a retrospective observational cohort study conducted at a private fertility center. Patients scheduled for thawed blastocyst transfer received artificial endometrial preparation (artificial cycle FET) and underwent serial ultrasonography. The main outcomes were the rate of ongoing pregnancy (fetal heart motion at 12 weeks of gestation) and early pregnancy loss. Logistic regression was used to test for correlations between these outcomes and the change in endometrial thickness while adjusting for potential confounders (patient age, embryo quality, and the use of genetic testing).
RESULTS: There were 232 qualifying autologous single-blastocyst transfers in the 20-month study period ending 31 December 2019. Mean endometrial thicknesses were 3.8 mm, 10.0 mm, and 11.2 mm at baseline, P initiation, and at transfer, respectively. The change in endometrial thickness after exogenous P exposure ranged from - 5 to + 9 mm and negatively correlated with ongoing pregnancy in logistic regression analyses. Specifically, ongoing pregnancy rates per transfer were 63.2% in 19 cases where endometria compacted by 10% or more, 64.2% in 95 cases where there was unchanged endometrial thickness, and 52.5% in 118 cases where endometria expanded.
CONCLUSIONS: The change in endometrial thickness after P initiation was associated with the probability of ongoing pregnancy but not with early pregnancy loss. Ongoing pregnancy rates were greater in endometria with negative growth (compaction) when compared to endometria that grew (expanded) after P exposure.