| Literature DB >> 34510779 |
Maaike Alblas1, Elisabeth F P Peterse1,2, Mengmeng Du3, Ann G Zauber3, Ewout W Steyerberg1,4, Nikki van Leeuwen1, Iris Lansdorp-Vogelaar1.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of prophylactic hysterectomy (PH) in women with Lynch syndrome (LS).Entities:
Keywords: advisory committees; cost-effectiveness; hysterectomy; lynch syndrome; microsimulation; microsimulation model; theoretical
Mesh:
Year: 2021 PMID: 34510779 PMCID: PMC8495276 DOI: 10.1002/cam4.4080
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Cancer Med ISSN: 2045-7634 Impact factor: 4.452
FIGURE 1Natural history model of MISCAN Endometrium model. EC, endometrial cancer
FIGURE 2Flowchart target population for prophylactic hysterectomy
Model inputs
| Variable | Base case | Range | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cumulative risk of developing EC before age 80 | 35% | 17–60 | Bonadona 2011 |
| Age distribution of FDR | 11–80 | — | Leenen 2016 |
| Survival probability | Age specific | — | SEER 2009–2013 |
| Ratio of prevalence of hyperplasia without atypia compared to with atypia | 6.14 | — | Lacey 2010 |
| Life table | Age specific | — | National Vital Statistics Reports 2012 |
| Dwelling time atypical lesions | 7.77 | Assumption | |
| Dwelling time lesions without atypia | 114.40 | Assumption | |
| Costs prophylactic hysterectomy | 15,276 | 7,638–30,552 | Havrilesky 2009 |
| Costs EC | 35,763 | 17,882–71,526 |
Schmeler 2006 Broaddus 2006 |
| Utility prophylactic hysterectomy | 0.88 | 0.82–0.99 |
Roberts 2011 Bhattacharya 2011 Hurskainen 2004 |
| Utility well | 1 | 0.8–1.0 | Fryback 1993 |
Abbreviations: EC, endometrial cancer; FDRs, first‐degree relatives.
The median age was 42 years, with an interquartile range of 31–55 years.
We derived dwelling times from Lacey et al. (2010) with a Weibull distribution. We assumed that for women with Lynch Syndrome, dwelling times were 10 times shorter as for the general population. Values are shown as mean input parameter, dwelling times of lesions that develop into EC will be shorter.
Cost reported as total Medicare reimbursement in US dollars. Includes: gynecologist fee, anesthesia fee for hysterectomy, pathology fee for uterus, inpatient diagnosis‐related group fees, preoperative lab fees.
For the costs of treatment of EC, we assumed 25% of all LS patients receive radiotherapy and 15% of LS patients receive chemotherapy ,
Results per 1000 women diagnosed with Lynch syndrome
| Strategy | EC cases | EC deaths | LYG | QALYG | Costs | ACER QALYG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prophylactic hysterectomy | 300 | 70.9 |
|
| 5.9 | |
| 30–70 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 426 | 262 | 14.1 | $31,220 |
| 30–75 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 433 | 269 | 14.4 | $31,618 |
| 30–80 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 435 | 272 | 14.6 | $31,936 |
| 35–70 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 423 | 374 | 13.7 | $20,735 |
| 35–75 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 430 | 381 | 14.0 | $21,228 |
| 35–80 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 432 | 384 | 14.2 | $21,513 |
| 40–70 | 11.0 | 2.9 | 411 | 506 | 13.2 | $14,306 |
| 40–75 | 6.7 | 1.5 | 417 | 514 | 13.5 | $14,768 |
| 40–80 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 420 | 516 | 13.7 | $15,008 |
Abbreviations: ACER, Average Cost‐Effectiveness Ratio; EC, deaths endometrial cancer deaths; LYG, life years gained; QALYG, quality‐adjusted life years gained.
Results are 3% discounted.
Compared to no prophylactic hysterectomy.
FIGURE 3Efficiency frontier quality‐adjusted life years gained. QALYG, quality‐adjusted life‐years gained, LS, Lynch syndrome
Results per age category (per 1000 women diagnosed with Lynch syndrome)
| Strategy | EC cases prevented | EC deaths prevented | LYG | QALYG | Additional Costs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30–34 | 351.8 | 77.9 | 460 | −489 | 9.518 |
| 35–39 |
348.5 | 77.6 | 510 | 45 | 8.811 |
| 40–44 | 339.5 | 76.2 | 536 | 608 | 8.269 |
| 45–49 | 323.4 | 73.8 | 534 | 918 | 7.975 |
| 50–54 | 297.1 | 70.3 | 502 | 845 | 8.087 |
| 55–59 | 258.1 | 65.8 | 443 | 701 | 8.754 |
| 60–64 | 217.8 | 60.9 | 385 | 558 | 9.544 |
| 65–69 | 178.8 | 55.0 | 320 | 420 | 10.372 |
| 70–74 | 142.2 | 48.0 | 252 | 292 | 11.210 |
| 75–79 | 108.8 | 40.7 | 188 | 182 | 12.033 |
Abbreviations: EC, deaths endometrial cancer deaths; LYG, life years gained; QALYG, quality‐adjusted life years gained.
Results are 3% discounted.
Earlier PH adds slightly more LYG for women who would otherwise die from EC between this age group and the next. On the other hand, LYG in all women who would be diagnosed with EC after age 35 are discounted for 5 more years and therefore become smaller.
Model‐recommended strategies with a willingness‐to‐pay threshold of $100,000 based on varying input parameters in sensitivity analyses
| Model recommended strategies | |
|---|---|
| Base case | 40–80 |
| Base case without adjustment for quality of life | 30–80 |
| Prophylactic hysterectomy costs | |
| −50% | 40–80 |
| +100% | 40–75 |
| Treatment costs endometrial cancer | |
| −50% | 40–80 |
| +100% | 40–80 |
| Utility endometrial cancer | |
| 0.68 | 40–80 |
| Utility prophylactic hysterectomy | |
| 0.82 | 40–80 |
| 0.99 | 35–80 |
| Risk of endometrial cancer | |
| 17% | 40–80 |
| 60% | 40–80 |
| Accounting for reduced life expectancy due to increased colorectal cancer risk in LS | 40–80 |
Abbreviations: LYG, life years gained; QALYG, quality‐adjusted life‐years gained.
MISCAN‐Colon was used to generate lifetables that accounted for the increased colorectal cancer mortality of LS women, assuming LS women participated in biennial colonoscopy surveillance from age 25 to age 80.