Breast Cancer Prevention: Time for Change.

Agency breast cancer prevention guidelines for other than hereditary cancers have not materially changed in 20 years; endocrine-targeted agents (then, tamoxifen; now, adding raloxifene and aromatase inhibitors) reduce good prognosis estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, progesterone receptor (PR)-positive cancers without reducing deaths from breast cancer. Across three tamoxifen placebo-controlled prevention trials (N = 23,360) begun almost 30 years ago, although there were 226 fewer breast cancer cases, there were nine more deaths from breast cancer in the tamoxifen groups. Following clinical advances, currently more than half of breast cancer cases are solved problems with extremely low risk of death. As endocrine-targeted agents commonly prevent these cancers, widespread implementation of current prevention strategies may not reduce deaths from breast cancer. Compared with other breast cancers, ER-positive, PR-negative cancers and triple-negative cancers have inferior survival (90.6% v 83.8% v 78.1%, respectively; P < .001). Against this background, in the Women's Health Initiative Dietary Modification randomized trial (N = 48,835), ER-positive, PR-negative cancers were statistically significantly reduced in the intervention group (hazard ratio, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.64 to 0.94) and deaths from breast cancer were reduced 21% (P = .02). In the Women's Health Initiative randomized, placebo-controlled trial evaluating conjugated equine estrogen (N = 10,739), ER-positive, PR-negative cancers were statistically significantly reduced in the intervention group (hazard ratio, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.27 to 0.74) and deaths from breast cancer were reduced 40% (P = .04). These findings suggest that reexamination of breast cancer risk reduction strategies and clinical practice is needed.