| Literature DB >> 34170393 |
Linda Walsh1, Roy Shore2, Tamara V Azizova3, Werner Rühm4.
Abstract
Recently, several compilations of individual radiation epidemiology study results have aimed to obtain direct evidence on the magnitudes of dose-rate effects on radiation-related cancer risks. These compilations have relied on meta-analyses of ratios of risks from low dose-rate studies and matched risks from the solid cancer Excess Relative Risk models fitted to the acutely exposed Japanese A-bomb cohort. The purpose here is to demonstrate how choices of methodology for evaluating dose-rate effects on radiation-related cancer risks may influence the results reported for dose-rate effects. The current analysis is intended to address methodological issues and does not imply that the authors recommend a particular value for the dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor. A set of 22 results from one recent published study has been adopted here as a test set of data for applying the many different methods described here, that nearly all produced highly consistent results. Some recently voiced concerns, involving the recalling of the well-known theoretical point-the ratio of two normal random variables has a theoretically unbounded variance-that could potentially cause issues, are shown to be unfounded when aimed at the published work cited and examined in detail here. In the calculation of dose-rate effects for radiation protection purposes, it is recommended that meta-estimators should retain the full epidemiological and dosimetric matching information between the risks from the individual low dose-rate studies and the acutely exposed A-bomb cohort and that a regression approach can be considered as a useful alternative to current approaches.Entities:
Keywords: Dose-rate effects; Meta-analysis; Radiation cancer risk
Mesh:
Year: 2021 PMID: 34170393 PMCID: PMC8310494 DOI: 10.1007/s00411-021-00920-y
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Radiat Environ Biophys ISSN: 0301-634X Impact factor: 1.925
Results for the excess relative risk (ERR) ratio, qi, the ratio of the individual study ERR/unit dose to matched LSS ERR/unit dose, and the standard error of qi, obtained with two different methods, Delta method (Bevington and Robinson 2003) as originally applied in Shore et al. (2017), or Fieller’s method (Fieller 1940)
| Low dose-rate study | LSS | Combined estimates | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cohort and reference | ERR/Gy | Std. Err | ERR/Gy | Std. Err | ERR ratio ( | Std. Err | Std. Err |
| France, UK, US nuclear workers (Richardson et al. | 0.47 | 0.185 | 0.3538 | 0.058 | 1.328 | 0.567 | 0.569 |
| Japan nuclear workers (Akiba et al. | 0.20 | 0.895 | 0.4551 | 0.144 | 0.439 | 1.972 | 1.998 |
| Chernobyl liquidators (Kashcheev et al. | 0.58 | 0.318 | 0.2282 | 0.056 | 2.542 | 1.529 | 1.543 |
| Techa River (Schonfeld et al. | 0.61 | 0.314 | 0.5288 | 0.056 | 1.154 | 0.606 | 0.607 |
| Mayak workers (Sokolnikov | 0.12 | 0.046 | 0.4271 | 0.066 | 0.281 | 0.116 | 0.116 |
| Yangjiang high natural background (Tao et al. | 0.19 | 1.253 | 0.4904 | 0.071 | 0.387 | 2.555 | 2.562 |
| Rocketdyne (Boice et al. | − 0.20 | 0.893 | 0.2298 | 0.037 | − 0.870 | 3.888 | 3.902 |
| German U millers (Kreuzer et al. | 0.27 | 1.419 | 0.3554 | 0.061 | 0.747 | 3.994 | 4.009 |
| US nuclear power plant workers (Cardis et al. | 0.51 | 1.696 | 0.4459 | 0.098 | 1.135 | 3.813 | 3.837 |
| Canada nuclear workers (Zablotska et al. | − 1.20 | 1.832 | 0.3555 | 0.081 | − 3.376 | 5.210 | 5.247 |
| Port Hope (Zablotska et al. | 0.12 | 0.439 | 0.2696 | 0.043 | 0.445 | 1.629 | 1.635 |
| Sweden nuclear facilities (Cardis et al. | − 0.58 | 4.298 | 0.339 | 0.074 | − 1.711 | 12.685 | 12.763 |
| German nuclear power plant workers (Merzenich et al. | − 1.02 | 1.551 | 0.3182 | 0.076 | − 3.207 | 4.934 | 4.971 |
| Rocky Flats Plutonium facilities (Cardis et al. | − 1.63 | 1.295 | 0.2847 | 0.067 | − 5.725 | 4.745 | 4.782 |
| Belgian nuclear workers (Cardis et al. | − 0.59 | 4.152 | 0.3515 | 0.079 | − 1.679 | 11.819 | 11.897 |
| Finnish nuclear workers (Cardis et al. | 174.00 | 544.729 | 0.3179 | 0.075 | 547.342 | 1718.319 | 1730.681 |
| Spain nuclear facilities (Cardis et al. | 1.02 | 7.830 | 0.3393 | 0.077 | 3.006 | 23.088 | 23.244 |
| Australia nuclear workers (Cardis et al. | 13.40 | 37.994 | 0.3835 | 0.076 | 34.941 | 99.315 | 99.833 |
| Slovak nuclear workers (Gulis et al. | 9.50 | 24.516 | 0.4008 | 0.101 | 23.703 | 61.457 | 61.968 |
| Kerala high natural background (Nair et al. | − 0.13 | 0.265 | 0.336 | 0.059 | − 0.387 | 0.793 | 0.796 |
| Taiwan Co-60 contaminated flats (Hwang et al. | 0.30 | 0.395 | 1.243 | 0.172 | 0.241 | 0.320 | 0.321 |
| Korea nuclear workers (Jeong et al. | 2.06 | 2.783 | 0.5575 | 0.113 | 3.695 | 5.048 | 5.075 |
for the calculations, the full precision available from the literature or from re-fitting the LSS models was applied
Fig. 1Result of the meta-analysis reformulated as a York regression with the best fit (all studies, solid black line), which is also the same if calculated with orthogonal distance regression. Note that some of the off-scale points from Table 1 were omitted to obtain an illustrative scaling here, but these outlying points were included in the fit. The points are given with standard error bars
Results for Q [the ratio of the study to LSS risks, i.e., the inverse of the dose-rate effectiveness factor (DREF)] and the standard error of Q, obtained with different methods
| Method 1 | Method 2 | All studies | All studies | Excluding Mayak | Excluding Mayak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fieller's method (Fieller | Meta-analysis with fixed effects (Sutton and Higgins | 0.3331 | 0.1040 | 0.5390 | 0.2314 |
| Fieller's method | Meta-analysis with random effects (DerSimonian and Laird | 0.3331 | 0.1040 | 0.5390 | 0.2314 |
| aDelta-method (Bevington and Robinson | Meta-analysis with fixed effects (Sutton and Higgins | 0.3331 | 0.1036 | 0.5393 | 0.2306 |
| Delta method | Meta-analysis with random effects (DerSimonian and Laird | 0.3331 | 0.1036 | 0.5393 | 0.2306 |
| Delta method | Meta-analysis, restricted maximum-likelihood estimator (Viechtbauer | 0.3368 | 0.1073 | 0.6003 | 0.2949 |
| Delta method | Meta-analysis, DerSimonian–Laird estimator with adjustments (Knapp and Hartung | 0.3331 | 0.077 | 0.5393 | 0.1695 |
| Delta method | Meta-analysis, Hunter-Schmidt estimator (Hunter and Schmidt | 0.3331 | 0.1036 | 0.5393 | 0.2306 |
| Delta method | Meta-analysis, Hedges estimator (Hedges and Olkin | 0.3331 | 0.1036 | 0.5393 | 0.2306 |
| Delta method | Meta-analysis, Sidik-Jonkman estimator (Sidik and Jonkman | 0.0166 | 2.7112 | − 0.0021 | 2.8980 |
| Delta method | Meta-analysis, Empirical Bayes estimator (Morris | 0.3331 | 0.1036 | 0.5393 | 0.2306 |
| Delta method | Meta-analysis (Paule and Mandel | 0.3331 | 0.1036 | 0.5393 | 0.2306 |
| Not required | York regression (York | 0.3488 | 0.1096 | 0.5925 | 0.2326 |
| Not required | York regression, (York | 0.3488 | 0.0901 | 0.5928 | 0.2342 |
| not required | Orthogonal distance regression (Boggs and Rogers | 0.3488 | 0.0860 | 0.5925 | 0.1765 |
The first column gives the method used to calculate the standard error of the ratio of the excess relative risk (ERR) ratio (q) (study/LSS) and the second column gives either the type of meta-analytic method applied or the type of regression
aNote (for the third row of results): this is the combination of methods and the result of the meta-estimator of Q as originally reported by Shore et al. (2017)