Reza Arabi Belaghi1,2, Joseph Beyene3,4, Sarah D McDonald5,6,7,8. 1. Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. 2. Department of Statistics, Faculty of Mathematical Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran. 3. Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence & Impact, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. 4. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. 5. Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. mcdonals@mcmaster.ca. 6. Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence & Impact, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. mcdonals@mcmaster.ca. 7. Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology (Division of Maternal-Fetal Medicine), McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. mcdonals@mcmaster.ca. 8. Department of Radiology, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. mcdonals@mcmaster.ca.
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To develop risk prediction models for singleton preterm birth (PTB) < 28 weeks and <32 weeks. METHODS: Using a retrospective cohort of 267,226 singleton births in Ontario hospitals, we included variables from the first and second trimester in multivariable logistic regression models to predict overall and spontaneous PTB < 28 weeks and <32 weeks. RESULTS: During the first trimester, the area under the curve (AUC) for prediction of PTB < 28 weeks for nulliparous and multiparous women was 68.5% (95% CI: 63.5-73.6%) and 73.4% (68.6-78.2%), respectively, while for PTB < 32 weeks it was 68.9% (65.5-72.3%) and 75.5% (72.3-78.7%), respectively. AUCs for second-trimester models were 72.4% (95% CI: 69.7-75.1%) and 78.2% (95% CI: 75.8-80.5%), respectively, in nulliparous and multiparous women. Predicted probabilities were well-calibrated within a wide range around expected base prevalence for the study outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Our prediction models generated acceptable AUCs for PTB < 28 weeks and <32 weeks with good calibration during the first and second trimester.
OBJECTIVE: To develop risk prediction models for singleton preterm birth (PTB) < 28 weeks and <32 weeks. METHODS: Using a retrospective cohort of 267,226 singleton births in Ontario hospitals, we included variables from the first and second trimester in multivariable logistic regression models to predict overall and spontaneous PTB < 28 weeks and <32 weeks. RESULTS: During the first trimester, the area under the curve (AUC) for prediction of PTB < 28 weeks for nulliparous and multiparous women was 68.5% (95% CI: 63.5-73.6%) and 73.4% (68.6-78.2%), respectively, while for PTB < 32 weeks it was 68.9% (65.5-72.3%) and 75.5% (72.3-78.7%), respectively. AUCs for second-trimester models were 72.4% (95% CI: 69.7-75.1%) and 78.2% (95% CI: 75.8-80.5%), respectively, in nulliparous and multiparous women. Predicted probabilities were well-calibrated within a wide range around expected base prevalence for the study outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Our prediction models generated acceptable AUCs for PTB < 28 weeks and <32 weeks with good calibration during the first and second trimester.
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