| Literature DB >> 33995268 |
Haiyan Zhu1,2, Chenqiong Zhao1,2, Peiwen Xiao3, Songying Zhang1,2.
Abstract
Capsule: We designed a predictive reference model to evaluate how many stimulation cycles are needed for a patient to achieve an ideal live birth rate using assisted reproductive technology. Objective: To develop a counseling tool for women who wish to undergo assisted reproductive technology (ART) treatment to predict the likelihood of live birth based on age and number of oocytes retrieved.Entities:
Keywords: cumulative live birth rate; female age; oocyte numbers; ovarian stimulation; predictive model
Mesh:
Year: 2021 PMID: 33995268 PMCID: PMC8120808 DOI: 10.3389/fendo.2021.606231
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Front Endocrinol (Lausanne) ISSN: 1664-2392 Impact factor: 5.555
Figure 1Flow chart of patient selection and exclusions.
Basal characteristics and fresh/FET IVF/ICSI outcomes.
| Live birth | No live births |
| OR (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. of stimulation cycles, n (%) | 11,121 (62.0%) | 6,827 (38.0%) | ||
| Age (mean ± SD) | 30.5 ± 3.8 | 33.3 ± 5.1 | <0.001 | |
| D3 FSH (IU/ml) (mean ± SD) | 7.0 ± 2.4 | 7.9 ± 3.2 | <0.001 | |
| D3 E2 (mean ± SD) | 40.4 ± 27.9 | 43.0 ± 28.4 | <0.001 | |
| Infertility factor, n (%) | 0.069 | |||
| Tubal factor | 7,162 (64.4%) | 4,488 (65.7%) | 0.943 (0.885–1.004) | |
| Endometriosis | 463 (4.2%) | 314 (4.6%) | ||
| Ovulatory disorder | 508 (4.6%) | 171 (2.5%) | ||
| Diminished ovarian reserve | 377 (3.3%) | 517 (7.6%) | ||
| Male factor | 1,944 (17.5%) | 941 (13.8%) | ||
| Unexplained | 667 (6.0%) | 396 (5.8%) | ||
| Duration of infertility (years) (mean ± SD) | 3.4 ± 2.6 | 4.1 ± 3.2 | <0.001 | |
| Stimulation protocol, n (%) | <0.001 | |||
| Long protocols | 6,638 (59.7%) | 2,543 (37.2%) | 2.494 (2.344–2.654) | |
| Short protocols | 1170 (10.5%) | 1121 (16.4%) | ||
| Ultralong protocols | 981 (8.8%) | 641 (9.4%) | ||
| Micro-stimulation protocols | 575 (5.2%) | 1,081 (15.9%) | ||
| Others | 1,757 (15.8%) | 1,441 (21.1%) | ||
| Duration of stimulation (day) (mean ± SD) | 9.8 ± 1.9 | 9.1 ± 2.5 | <0.001 | |
| No. of oocytes retrieved (mean ± SD) | 11.4 ± 6.7 | 6.9 ± 5.0 | <0.001 | |
| Use of ICSI, n (%) | 3,631 (32.6%) | 2,718 (39.8%) | <0.001 | 0.733 (0.688–0.780) |
| Fertilization rate (%) | ||||
| IVF | 70.60% | 66.20% | <0.001 | 1.223 (1.189–1.259) |
| ICSI | 77.20% | 73.60% | <0.001 | 1.211 (1.161–1.263) |
| Good quality embryo rate (%) | 49.80% | 41.10% | <0.001 | 1.422 (1.385–1.460) |
| No. of good quality embryo (mean ± SD) | 4.2 ± 8.0 | 2.3 ± 1.7 | <0.001 | |
| No. of frozen embryo (mean ± SD) | 6.7 ± 4.4 | 3.6 ± 2.7 | <0.001 | |
| Day of embryo transfer in the fresh cycle | ||||
| Day-3 embryo transfer, n (%) | 1476 (92.7%) | 1,152 (93.6%) | 0.37 | 0.865 (6.44–1.163) |
| Blastocyst transfer, n (%) | 117 (7.3%) | 79 (6.4%) | 0.37 | |
| No. of embryo transferred in the fresh cycle | ||||
| No. of day-3 embryos transferred (mean ± SD) | 1.8 ± 0.4 | 1.7 ± 0.5 | <0.001 | |
| No. of blastocysts transferred (mean ± SD) | 1.4 ± 0.5 | 1.5 ± 0.5 | >0.05 | |
| Day of embryo transfer in the frozen cycle | ||||
| Day-3 embryo transfer, n (%) | 10,556 (85.1%) | 6,666 (84.0%) | 0.028 | 1.092 (1.010–1.180) |
| Blastocyst transfer, n (%) | 1,842 (14.9%) | 1,270 (16.0%) | 0.028 | |
| No. of embryo transferred in the frozen cycle | ||||
| No. of day-3 embryos transferred (mean ± SD) | 1.9 ± 0.4 | 1.8 ± 0.5 | <0.001 | |
| No. of blastocysts transferred (mean ± SD) | 1.6 ± 0.5 | 1.5 ± 0.5 | <0.001 | |
FSH, follicle stimulating hormone; E2, estradiol; IVF, in vitro fertilization; ICSI, intracytoplasmic sperm injection; OR, odds ratio; 95% CI, 95% confidence interval.
Figure 2Predictions of the CLBR according to age and the number of oocytes retrieved. Each curve represents the likelihood that a patient of a given age will obtain a live birth based on the number of oocytes retrieved. (A) Patients aged 20–29 years; (B) patients aged 30–39 years; (C) patients aged 40-49 years.
Logistic regression analysis with odds ratios for CLBR.
| Cumulative live birth | Odds ratio | SE | 95% CI |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age | 0.902 | 0.005 | 0.893–0.910 | <0.001 |
| Oocytes | 1.036 | 0.007 | 1.022–1.050 | <0.001 |
| Good quality embryo | 1.362 | 0.115 | 1.088–1.705 | 0.007 |
| Fertilization rate | 1.265 | 0.009 | 1.234–1.296 | <0.001 |
| Insemination method | ||||
| IVF | 1.077 | 0.04 | 0.996–1.165 | 0.062 |
| ICSI | 1 | |||
| Duration of infertility | 0.989 | 0.007 | 0.975–1.003 | 0.109 |
CLBR, cumulative live birth rate; 95% CI, 95% confidence interval; SE, standard error of the mean.