| Literature DB >> 33742730 |
Penghua Hu1,2,3, Li Song2, Huaban Liang2, Yuanhan Chen2, Yanhua Wu2, Li Zhang2, Zhilian Li2, Lei Fu2, Yiming Tao2, Shuangxin Liu2, Zhiming Ye2, Xia Fu2, Xinling Liang1,2.
Abstract
AIM: To develop a model for predicting renal recovery in cardiac surgery patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) requiring renal replacement therapy (RRT).Entities:
Keywords: cardiac surgery; renal recovery; renal replacement therapy; risk assessment
Mesh:
Year: 2021 PMID: 33742730 PMCID: PMC9292395 DOI: 10.1111/nep.13878
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Nephrology (Carlton) ISSN: 1320-5358 Impact factor: 2.358
Baseline characteristics of patients with acute kidney injury requiring dialysis, stratified according to renal recovery status
| Variable | Total patients ( | Not recovered ( | Recovered ( |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age (years) | 57.0 (45.0, 66.0) | 59.0 (46.0, 68.0) | 53.0 (42.0, 61.0) | .005 |
| Male | 141 (66.8%) | 92 (65.2%) | 49 (70.0%) | .490 |
| BMI | 22.0 ± 3.3 | 21.3 ± 2.9 | 23.3 ± 3.7 | <.001 |
| BMI stratification | <.001 | |||
| <18.5 kg/m2 | 32 (15.2%) | 26 (18.4%) | 6 (8.6%) | |
| 18.5–23.9 kg/m2 | 127 (60.2%) | 92 (65.2%) | 35 (50.0%) | |
| ≧24 kg/m2 | 52 (24.6%) | 23 (16.3%) | 29 (41.4%) | |
| Smoker | 53 (25.1%) | 34 (24.1%) | 19 (27.1%) | .633 |
| LVEF (%) | 59.0 (48.0, 65.0) | 55.0 (46.0, 65.0) | 61.0 (54.0, 66.0) | .152 |
| Baseline serum creatinine (μmol/L) | 86.7 ± 15.0 | 89.2 ± 13.6 | 81.7 ± 16.4 | <.001 |
| Baseline eGFR (ml/min/1.73m2) | 77.0 (63.4, 93.0) | 72.6 (61.7, 86.0) | 86.8 (71.8, 103.5) | <.001 |
| Comorbid disease | ||||
| Hypertension | 71 (33.6%) | 55 (39.0%) | 16 (22.9%) | .019 |
| Diabetes mellitus | 38 (18.0%) | 31 (22.0%) | 7 (10.0%) | .033 |
| Cerebral vascular disease | 14 (6.6%) | 12 (8.5%) | 2 (2.9%) | .120 |
| Peripheral vascular disease | 6 (2.8%) | 4 (2.8%) | 2 (2.9%) | .993 |
| Acute myocardial infarction | 11 (5.2%) | 8 (5.7%) | 3 (4.3%) | .669 |
| Gastrointestinal haemorrhage | 14 (6.6%) | 10 (7.1%) | 4 (5.7%) | .705 |
| Coronary heart disease | 8 (3.8%) | 6 (4.3%) | 2 (2.9%) | .617 |
| Atrial fibrillation | 18 (8.5%) | 13 (9.2%) | 5 (7.1%) | .611 |
| Sepsis | 28 (13.3%) | 23 (16.3%) | 5 (7.1%) | .065 |
| Previous cardiac surgery | 14 (6.6%) | 12 (8.5%) | 2 (2.9%) | .120 |
| Procedure | .673 | |||
| CABG | 22 (10.4%) | 14 (9.9%) | 8 (11.4%) | |
| Valve | 96 (45.5%) | 67 (47.5%) | 29 (41.4%) | |
| Aortic surgery | 47 (22.3%) | 30 (21.3%) | 17 (24.3%) | |
| combined surgery | 32 (15.2%) | 19 (13.5%) | 13 (18.6%) | |
| others | 14 (6.6%) | 11 (7.8%) | 3 (4.3%) | |
| Resurgery | 31 (14.7%) | 22 (15.6%) | 9 (12.9%) | .596 |
| Valuables at RRT initiation | ||||
| MAP (mmHg) | 78.8 ± 12.6 | 77.2 ± 12.6 | 81.9 ± 12.0 | .011 |
| Mechanical ventilation | 181 (85.8%) | 125 (88.7%) | 56 (80.0%) | .090 |
| Vasoactive drug above 3 kinds | 100 (47.4%) | 69 (48.9%) | 31 (44.3%) | .524 |
| CVP (cmH2O) | 15.0 (11.0, 19.0) | 15.0 (11.0, 19.0) | 15.0 (12.0, 20.0) | .366 |
| AKI stage 3 | 125 (59.2%) | 79 (56.0%) | 46 (65.7%) | .178 |
| GCS score | 3.0 (3.0, 15.0) | 3.0 (3.0, 14.5) | 6.0 (3.0, 15.0) | .144 |
| Drugs use | ||||
| Aminoglycosides or vancomycin antibiotics | 23 (10.9%) | 16 (11.3%) | 7 (10.0%) | .767 |
| ACEI or ARB | 21 (10.0%) | 11 (7.8%) | 10 (14.3%) | .138 |
| NSAID | 25 (11.8%) | 19 (13.5%) | 6 (8.6%) | .299 |
| Contrast media exposure | 21 (10.0%) | 16 (11.3%) | 5 (7.1%) | .337 |
| Laboratory data | ||||
| Haemoglobin (g/L) | 97.0 (86.0, 109.0) | 95.0 (86.0, 109.0) | 101.5 (90.0, 110.0) | .149 |
| Platelet count (×109/L) | 94.0 (58.0, 140.0) | 93.0 (56.0, 137.0) | 97.0 (66.0, 154.0) | .472 |
| Serum uric acid (μmol/L) | 465.0 (348.0, 566.0) | 465.0 (348.0, 576.0) | 465.0 (368.0, 548.0) | .962 |
| Glucose (mmol/L) | 9.9 (7.9, 13.4) | 9.9 (7.8, 13.5) | 10.0 (8.2, 13.1) | .879 |
| HbA1c (%) | 6.0 (5.7, 6.6) | 6.1 (5.7, 6.6) | 5.8 (5.6, 6.7) | .256 |
| ALT (U/L) | 60.0 (28.0, 309.0) | 65.0 (28.0, 410.0) | 52.0 (27.0, 210.0) | .474 |
| Total bilirubin (μmol/L) | 36.0 (20.4, 61.4) | 36.3 (20.8, 61.9) | 34.7 (20.4, 53.4) | .534 |
| Serum albumin (g/L) | 31.8 (27.7, 36.0) | 31.0 (27.2, 34.7) | 34.2 (29.7, 37.5) | .003 |
| CO2CP (mmol/L) | 24.6 (21.9, 27.8) | 24.6 (22.2, 27.9) | 24.8 (21.4, 27.2) | .591 |
| Serum potassium (mmol/L) | 4.2 (3.8, 4.7) | 4.2 (3.7, 4.7) | 4.2 (3.8, 4.7) | .623 |
| Lactic acid (mmol/L) | 3.5 (1.5, 6.4) | 4.6 (1.5, 7.6) | 2.8 (1.4, 5.1) | .035 |
| Lactic acid | 137 (64.9%) | 94 (66.7%) | 43 (61.4%) | .453 |
| Serum Chlorine (mmol/L) | 104.5 (99.8, 106.9) | 104.5 (100.1, 106.9) | 104.4 (99.8, 106.6) | .722 |
| Proteinuria | 36 (17.1%) | 26 (18.4%) | 10 (14.3%) | .450 |
Abbreviations: ACEI/ARB, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitior/angiotensin receptor blocker; AKI, acute kidney injury; ALT, alanine Aminotransferase; BMI, body mass index; CABG, coronary artery bypass grafting; CO2CP, carbon dioxide‐combining power.; CVP, central venous pressure; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; GCS, glasgow coma scale; HbA1c, glycated haemoglobin; LVEF, left ventricular ejection fraction; MAP, mean arterial pressure; NSAID, non‐steroidal anti‐inflammatory drugs; RRT, renal replacement therapy.
Data were expressed as mean ± SD.
Multivariate logistic regression analysis of variables for predicting renal recovery after acute kidney injury requiring renal replacement therapy
| Variables | β |
| OR | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMI stratification | <.001 | |||
| <18.5 kg/m2 | 1 | |||
| 18.5–23.9 kg/m2 | 0.476 | .394 | 1.609 | (0.539, 4.804) |
| ≧24 kg/m2 | 2.155 | <.001 | 8.629 | (2.581, 28.848) |
| Baseline eGFR (ml/min/1.73m2) | 0.046 | <.001 | 1.047 | (1.026, 1.068) |
| Hypertension | −0.955 | .019 | 0.385 | (0.173, 0.857) |
| Sepsis | −0.946 | .112 | 0.388 | (0.121, 1.248) |
| MAP | 0.030 | .039 | 1.030 | (1.001, 1.060) |
| Mechanical ventilation | −1.130 | .021 | 0.323 | (0.123, 0.846) |
| Constant | −6.376 | <.001 |
Abbreviations: BMI, body mass index; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate; MAP, mean arterial pressure.
FIGURE 1Nomogram for predicting renal function recovery 90 days after renal replacement therapy initiation in patients with acute kidney injury after cardiac surgery. The probability of renal function recovery for each patient after AKI requiring RRT was estimated by drawing on each variable axis. Plotting vertical lines from each variable axis to the top points scale to get the score of each variable. Calculate the sum points of all variables. After locating the sum points of all variables on the total points scale axis, drawing a downward vertical line from the total points scale axis to the probability axis. Then a personalized probability of renal function recovery after AKI requiring RRT was obtained
FIGURE 2Model calibration and decision curve analyses. (A) Internal model calibration curves (bootstrap = 1000 repetitions). Calibration plot illustrates the relationship between actual occurrence of renal recovery and predicted probability according to the model. The ideal curve along the 45° line represents model calibration in which predicted values are the same as actual outcomes. Apparent and bias‐corrected curves have a close fit to the ideal curve, indicating better predictive accuracy of the model. (B) Decision curve analyses for prediction models. Y‐axis is for net benefit and x‐axis for threshold probability. Dashed and solid black lines represent hypothesis that all patients and no patients had renal recovery after acute kidney injury requiring renal replacement therapy, respectively. The net benefit was computed by subtracting the proportion of false positives from proportion of true positives in all patients and weighting the relative harm driven by false positives. Threshold probability occurs when the expected benefit of treatment avoidance is equal to the expected benefit of treatment. Net benefits for the new model are presented for each decision threshold. The new model was positive across the most range of decision thresholds