| Literature DB >> 34957162 |
Jiawei He1, Jin Lin1, Meili Duan1.
Abstract
Background: Sepsis-associated acute kidney injury (AKI) is frequent in patients admitted to intensive care units (ICU) and may contribute to adverse short-term and long-term outcomes. Acute kidney disease (AKD) reflects the adverse events developing after AKI. We aimed to develop and validate machine learning models to predict the occurrence of AKD in patients with sepsis-associated AKI.Entities:
Keywords: acute kidney disease; acute kidney injury; intensive care unit; machine learning; sepsis
Year: 2021 PMID: 34957162 PMCID: PMC8703139 DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2021.792974
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Front Med (Lausanne) ISSN: 2296-858X
Figure 1Flow chart of patient selection.
Baseline characteristics of the Beijing Friendship Hospital (BFH) and Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC III) cohorts.
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| Age, mean (SD) | 54.7 (20.7) | 64.5 (14.7) | <0.001 | 64.3 (16.5) | 62.6 (18.1) | 0.252 |
| Male, (%) | 58 (62.4) | 74 (63.8) | 0.832 | 160 (58.6) | 117 (49.6) | 0.041 |
| BMI, kg/m2, median [Q1, Q3] | 26.6 (22.5, 30.4) | 26.3 (22.4, 29.4) | 0.837 | 27.3 (23.5, 32.2) | 27.3 (23.3, 31.2) | 0.782 |
| Heart failure, | 19 (20.4) | 30 (25.9) | 0.357 | 66 (24.2) | 50 (21.2) | 0.423 |
| Hypertension, | 45 (48.4) | 74 (63.8) | 0.025 | 21 (7.7) | 30 (12.7) | 0.060 |
| Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, | 12 (12.9) | 19 (16.4) | 0.482 | 62 (22.7) | 61 (25.8) | 0.410 |
| Chronic liver disease, | 3 (3.2) | 6 (5.2) | 0.491 | 30 (11.0) | 27 (11.4) | 0.872 |
| Diabetes mellitus, | 35 (37.6) | 66 (56.9) | 0.006 | 76 (27.8) | 52 (22.0) | 0.132 |
| Chronic kidney disease, | 37 (39.8) | 26 (22.4) | 0.007 | 36 (13.2) | 18 (7.6) | 0.042 |
| Charlson score, median [Q1, Q3] | 2 (1, 3) | 2 (1, 4) | 0.001 | 2 (1, 3) | 2 (1, 3) | 0.729 |
| Emergency department, | 59 (63.4) | 75 (64.7) | 0.856 | 33 (12.1) | 36 (15.3) | 0.298 |
| Surgery, | 25 (26.9) | 20 (17.2) | 0.092 | 99 (36.3) | 56 (23.7) | 0.002 |
| APS III, median [Q1, Q3] | 45 (32, 62) | 44.5 (32, 63) | 0.779 | 40 (29, 55) | 36.5 (26, 48) | 0.035 |
| SAPS II, median [Q1, Q3] | 35 (25, 46) | 35 (27, 44) | 0.779 | 31 (23, 44) | 31.5 (23, 41) | 0.461 |
| Non-renal SOFA at day 1, median [Q1, Q3] | 3 (1, 6) | 3 (1, 6) | 0.310 | 3 (1, 5) | 2 (1, 4) | 0.044 |
| Non-renal SOFA at day 3, median [Q1, Q3] | 3 (1, 6) | 3 (1, 6) | 0.375 | 2 (1, 4) | 2 (1, 4) | 0.226 |
| Delta non-renal SOFA, median [Q1, Q3] | 0 (0, 0) | 0 (0, 1) | <0.001 | 0 (0, 0) | 0 (0, 0) | 0.478 |
| AKI stage, | <0.001 | 0.008 | ||||
| 1 | 13 (14.0) | 3 (2.6) | 132 (48.4) | 145 (61.4) | ||
| 2 | 33 (35.5) | 20 (17.2) | 91 (33.3) | 55 (23.3) | ||
| 3 | 47 (50.5) | 93 (80.2) | 50 (18.3) | 36 (15.3) | ||
| Baseline creatinine, mg/dl, median [Q1, Q3] | 0.7 (0.5,1.0) | 0.8 (0.5, 1.1) | 0.880 | 0.6 (0.5, 0.9) | 0.60 (0.4, 0.9) | 0.700 |
| Creatinine at day 1, mg/dl, median [Q1, Q3] | 1.3 (0.9, 2.2) | 1.4 (0.9, 2.5) | 0.857 | 1.1 (0.9, 1.5) | 1.0 (0.8, 1.4) | 0.050 |
| Creatinine at day 3, mg/dl, median [Q1, Q3] | 1.1 (0.9, 1.6) | 1.2 (0.8, 2.0) | 0.014 | 1.0 (0.8, 1.3) | 0.9 (0.7, 1.4) | 0.159 |
| Delta creatinine, mg/dl, median [Q1, Q3] | −0.1 (−0.7, 0.0) | −0.1 (−0.40, 0.0) | 0.001 | −0.1 (−0.20, 0.0) | 0.0 (−0.1, 0.0) | <0.001 |
| Urine output at day1, ml/kg/h, median [Q1, Q3] | 0.9 (0.4, 2.9) | 0.9 (0.4, 2.8) | 0.457 | 1.9 (0.7, 3.9) | 1.9 (0.8, 4.0) | 0.324 |
| Urine output at day3, ml/kg/h, median [Q1, Q3] | 1.1 (0.7, 1.7) | 0.9 (0.3, 1.5) | <0.001 | 1.0 (0.6, 1.6) | 1.1 (0.7, 2.1) | 0.438 |
| Delta urine output, ml/kg/h, median [Q1, Q3] | 1.1 (0.7, 1.7) | 0.9 (0.3, 1.5) | <0.001 | −0.3 (−1.7, 0.0) | −0.2 (−1.0, 0.0) | 0.219 |
| Diuretics, | 22 (23.7) | 94 (81.0) | <0.001 | 126 (46.2) | 91 (38.6) | 0.084 |
| Mechanical ventilation, | 61 (65.6) | 74 (63.8) | 0.787 | 137 (50.2) | 103 (43.6) | 0.141 |
| Renal toxic drugs, | 46 (49.5) | 89 (76.7) | <0.001 | 115 (42.1) | 84 (35.6) | 0.132 |
MIMIC III, Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III; AKD, acute kidney disease; BMI, body mass index; APS III, Acute Physiological Score III; SPAS II, Simplified Acute Physiology Score II; SOFA, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment.
Figure 2Loss (A) and accuracy (B) vs. epoch graph (up to 200 epochs).
Figure 3Significance of the predictors in the Recurrent Neural Network-Long Short-Term Memory (RNN-LSTM) model. All 28 important features regarding the development of the final predictive model are depicted.
Figure 4Contribution of 28 variables in predicting the occurrence of patients with sepsis-associated AKD.
Figure 5Optimized decision tree for the classification of acute kidney disease (AKD)/non-AKD of patients.
Figure 6Clinical feature selection using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) logistic regression. (A) Optimal parameter (lambda) selection in the LASSO logistic regression. The black vertical lines were drawn at the optimal values by using the minimum criteria and the one SE of the minimum criteria (the 1-SE criteria). (B) LASSO coefficient profiles of the 28 features. A coefficient profile plot was produced against the log (lambda) sequence.
Figure 7Nomogram developed based on the training dataset with the incorporation of age, combined with hypertension, diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease (CKD), delta non-renal Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), acute kidney injury (AKI) stage, delta creatinine, delta urine output, diuretics, and renal toxic drugs.
Figure 8Calibration curves (A) and decision curve analysis (B) for nomogram.
Figure 9The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of the RNN-LSTM, decision trees, and logistic regression. (A) Training dataset; (B) Validation dataset.