Multiple-trait model through Bayesian inference applied to Jatropha curcas breeding for bioenergy.

Multiple-trait model tends to be the best alternative for the analysis of repeated measures, since they consider the genetic and residual correlations between measures and improve the selective accuracy. Thus, the objective of this study was to propose a multiple-trait Bayesian model for repeated measures analysis in Jatropha curcas breeding for bioenergy. To this end, the grain yield trait of 730 individuals of 73 half-sib families was evaluated over six harvests. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm was used to estimate genetic parameters and genetic values. Genetic correlation between pairs of measures were estimated and four selective intensities (27.4%, 20.5%, 13.7%, and 6.9%) were used to compute the selection gains. The full model was selected based on deviance information criterion. Genetic correlations of low (ρg ≤ 0.33), moderate (0.34 ≤ ρg ≤ 0.66), and high magnitude (ρg ≥ 0.67) were observed between pairs of harvests. Bayesian analyses provide robust inference of genetic parameters and genetic values, with high selective accuracies. In summary, the multiple-trait Bayesian model allowed the reliable selection of superior Jatropha curcas progenies. Therefore, we recommend this model to genetic evaluation of Jatropha curcas genotypes, and its generalization, in other perennials.