BACKGROUND: In the United States, laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is nationally notifiable. However, reported case counts are recognized to be less than the true number of cases because detection and reporting are incomplete and can vary by disease severity, geography, and over time. METHODS: To estimate the cumulative incidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections, symptomatic illnesses, and hospitalizations, we adapted a simple probabilistic multiplier model. Laboratory-confirmed case counts that were reported nationally were adjusted for sources of underdetection based on testing practices in inpatient and outpatient settings and assay sensitivity. RESULTS: We estimated that through the end of September, 1 of every 2.5 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 2.0-3.1) hospitalized infections and 1 of every 7.1 (95% UI: 5.8-9.0) nonhospitalized illnesses may have been nationally reported. Applying these multipliers to reported SARS-CoV-2 cases along with data on the prevalence of asymptomatic infection from published systematic reviews, we estimate that 2.4 million hospitalizations, 44.8 million symptomatic illnesses, and 52.9 million total infections may have occurred in the US population from 27 February-30 September 2020. CONCLUSIONS: These preliminary estimates help demonstrate the societal and healthcare burdens of the COVID-19 pandemic and can help inform resource allocation and mitigation planning. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2020.
BACKGROUND: In the United States, laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is nationally notifiable. However, reported case counts are recognized to be less than the true number of cases because detection and reporting are incomplete and can vary by disease severity, geography, and over time. METHODS: To estimate the cumulative incidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections, symptomatic illnesses, and hospitalizations, we adapted a simple probabilistic multiplier model. Laboratory-confirmed case counts that were reported nationally were adjusted for sources of underdetection based on testing practices in inpatient and outpatient settings and assay sensitivity. RESULTS: We estimated that through the end of September, 1 of every 2.5 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 2.0-3.1) hospitalized infections and 1 of every 7.1 (95% UI: 5.8-9.0) nonhospitalized illnesses may have been nationally reported. Applying these multipliers to reported SARS-CoV-2 cases along with data on the prevalence of asymptomatic infection from published systematic reviews, we estimate that 2.4 million hospitalizations, 44.8 million symptomatic illnesses, and 52.9 million total infections may have occurred in the US population from 27 February-30 September 2020. CONCLUSIONS: These preliminary estimates help demonstrate the societal and healthcare burdens of the COVID-19 pandemic and can help inform resource allocation and mitigation planning. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2020.
Authors: Kiersten J Kugeler; Laura J Podewils; Nisha B Alden; Tori L Burket; Breanna Kawasaki; Brad J Biggerstaff; Holly M Biggs; Rachael Zacks; Monique A Foster; Travis Lim; Emily McDonald; Jacqueline E Tate; Rachel K Herlihy; Jan Drobeniuc; Margaret M Cortese Journal: Public Health Rep Date: 2021-11-09 Impact factor: 2.792
Authors: Christopher J Colombo; Rhonda E Colombo; Ryan C Maves; Angela R Branche; Stuart H Cohen; Marie-Carmelle Elie; Sarah L George; Hannah J Jang; Andre C Kalil; David A Lindholm; Richard A Mularski; Justin R Ortiz; Victor Tapson; C Jason Liang Journal: Crit Care Explor Date: 2021-07-13
Authors: Jefferson M Jones; Mars Stone; Hasan Sulaeman; Rebecca V Fink; Honey Dave; Matthew E Levy; Clara Di Germanio; Valerie Green; Edward Notari; Paula Saa; Brad J Biggerstaff; Donna Strauss; Debra Kessler; Ralph Vassallo; Rita Reik; Susan Rossmann; Mark Destree; Kim-Anh Nguyen; Merlyn Sayers; Chris Lough; Daniel W Bougie; Megan Ritter; Gerardo Latoni; Billy Weales; Stacy Sime; Jed Gorlin; Nicole E Brown; Carolyn V Gould; Kevin Berney; Tina J Benoit; Maureen J Miller; Dane Freeman; Deeksha Kartik; Alicia M Fry; Eduardo Azziz-Baumgartner; Aron J Hall; Adam MacNeil; Adi V Gundlapalli; Sridhar V Basavaraju; Susan I Gerber; Monica E Patton; Brian Custer; Phillip Williamson; Graham Simmons; Natalie J Thornburg; Steven Kleinman; Susan L Stramer; Jean Opsomer; Michael P Busch Journal: JAMA Date: 2021-10-12 Impact factor: 56.272
Authors: Amanda B Payne; Zunera Gilani; Shana Godfred-Cato; Ermias D Belay; Leora R Feldstein; Manish M Patel; Adrienne G Randolph; Margaret Newhams; Deepam Thomas; Reed Magleby; Katherine Hsu; Meagan Burns; Elizabeth Dufort; Angie Maxted; Michael Pietrowski; Allison Longenberger; Sally Bidol; Justin Henderson; Lynn Sosa; Alexandra Edmundson; Melissa Tobin-D'Angelo; Laura Edison; Sabrina Heidemann; Aalok R Singh; John S Giuliano; Lawrence C Kleinman; Keiko M Tarquinio; Rowan F Walsh; Julie C Fitzgerald; Katharine N Clouser; Shira J Gertz; Ryan W Carroll; Christopher L Carroll; Brooke E Hoots; Carrie Reed; F Scott Dahlgren; Matthew E Oster; Timmy J Pierce; Aaron T Curns; Gayle E Langley; Angela P Campbell; Neha Balachandran; Thomas S Murray; Cole Burkholder; Troy Brancard; Jenna Lifshitz; Dylan Leach; Ian Charpie; Cory Tice; Susan E Coffin; Dana Perella; Kaitlin Jones; Kimberly L Marohn; Phoebe H Yager; Neil D Fernandes; Heidi R Flori; Monica L Koncicki; Karen S Walker; Maria Cecilia Di Pentima; Simon Li; Steven M Horwitz; Sunanda Gaur; Dennis C Coffey; Ilana Harwayne-Gidansky; Saul R Hymes; Neal J Thomas; Kate G Ackerman; Jill M Cholette Journal: JAMA Netw Open Date: 2021-06-01
Authors: Jeffrey Gassen; Tomasz J Nowak; Alexandria D Henderson; Sally P Weaver; Erich J Baker; Michael P Muehlenbein Journal: Front Psychol Date: 2021-06-04