Liu Jin1, Weiling Gu2, Xueqin Li1, Liang Xie1, Linhong Wang1, Zhongwen Chen3. 1. Department of Control and Prevention of Chronic Non-communicable Diseases, Jiaxing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jiaxing, Zhejiang, China. 2. Office, Jiaxing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jiaxing, Zhejiang,China. 3. Office, Jiaxing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, No.486, Wenqiao Road, Jiaxing, Zhejiang 314050, China.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The prognostic value of programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression in patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) has been controversial according to previous investigations. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis to assess the potential prognostic significance of PD-L1 expression in MPM. METHODS: PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus, and the Cochrane Library were thoroughly searched for relevant original articles published before 9 April 2020. The pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were calculated. The results of the meta-analysis were verified using The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) dataset. RESULTS: In total 16 studies were included in our meta-analysis. A high PD-L1 expression was associated with a poor OS (HR = 1.53, 95% CI = 1.28-1.83, p < 0.001), but not a grave PFS (HR = 1.07, 95% CI = 0.82-1.39, p = 0.643) in MPM. Furthermore, the PD-L1 expression correlated with the sarcomatoid + biphasic type of MPM (odds ratio = 4.32, 95% CI = 2.16-8.64, p < 0.001). TCGA data indicated that PD-L1 was a significant prognostic factor for OS (HR = 2.069, 95% CI = 1.136-3.769, p = 0.0175), but not for PFS (HR = 1.205, 95% CI = 0.572-2.539, p = 0.624), which was in accordance with the results of the meta-analysis. CONCLUSION: A high PD-L1 expression is a significant prognostic factor for poor OS of patients with MPM. We therefore suggest that PD-L1 expression levels can be used to predict the clinical outcomes of patients with MPM in the future.
BACKGROUND: The prognostic value of programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression in patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) has been controversial according to previous investigations. Therefore, we conducted a meta-analysis to assess the potential prognostic significance of PD-L1 expression in MPM. METHODS: PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus, and the Cochrane Library were thoroughly searched for relevant original articles published before 9 April 2020. The pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were calculated. The results of the meta-analysis were verified using The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) dataset. RESULTS: In total 16 studies were included in our meta-analysis. A high PD-L1 expression was associated with a poor OS (HR = 1.53, 95% CI = 1.28-1.83, p < 0.001), but not a grave PFS (HR = 1.07, 95% CI = 0.82-1.39, p = 0.643) in MPM. Furthermore, the PD-L1 expression correlated with the sarcomatoid + biphasic type of MPM (odds ratio = 4.32, 95% CI = 2.16-8.64, p < 0.001). TCGA data indicated that PD-L1 was a significant prognostic factor for OS (HR = 2.069, 95% CI = 1.136-3.769, p = 0.0175), but not for PFS (HR = 1.205, 95% CI = 0.572-2.539, p = 0.624), which was in accordance with the results of the meta-analysis. CONCLUSION: A high PD-L1 expression is a significant prognostic factor for poor OS of patients with MPM. We therefore suggest that PD-L1 expression levels can be used to predict the clinical outcomes of patients with MPM in the future.
Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is a rare cancer of the pleura with increasing incidence worldwide.[1] MPM is associated with asbestos exposure, which is responsible for 80% of the diagnosed cases,[2] and is an aggressive cancer with a grim prognosis.[1] The median survival period of patients with MPM is 8–14 months[3] and the 5-year overall survival (OS) rate is 8.5%.[4] For localized disease of MPM, the mainstay therapeutic strategies are surgical resection with or without radiotherapy and/or chemotherapy, whereas for patients with unresectable disease, multimodality therapy including radiotherapy and chemotherapy is usually selected.[5] Moreover, immunotherapy with checkpoint blockade has emerged as a promising new treatment for unresectable MPM.[6-8] KEYNOTE-028 was the first clinical trial to show the benefit of immune checkpoint inhibition (ICI) in patients with MPM.[9] Although revolutionary advancements have been achieved in the treatment of MPM in the last decade, the prognosis for MPM has not substantially improved. Biomarkers are important for the early determination of prognosis for patients with MPM. Therefore, it is necessary to identify novel and effective prognostic factors for MPM.Programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) is a 40 kDa surface glycoprotein molecule that is expressed in a variety of immune cells and tumor cells.[10] PD-L1 plays a vital role in immune suppression. The interaction of PD-L1 with programmed cell death 1 (PD-1) negatively regulates T cell-mediated immune responses.[11] The activation of the PD-1/PD-L1 signal pathway inhibits effector T cell function and protects cancer cells from immune surveillance.[12] Many studies have demonstrated the prognostic role of PD-L1 expression in diverse solid tumors, including hepatocellular carcinoma,[13] colorectal cancer,[14] breast cancer,[15] lung cancer,[16] and pancreatic cancer.[17] The potential prognostic value of tumor PD-L1 expression in patients with MPM has also been investigated; however, the results are inconsistent.[18-23] In addition, there is no consensus on whether PD-L1 expression can predict the efficiency of ICI treatments and the outcomes for patients receiving them.[6] Therefore, we performed a meta-analysis to incorporate current evidence to assess the prognostic significance of PD-L1 expression for MPM. In addition, we also validated the results of the meta-analysis using The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) to confirm the reliability of the data.
Methods
Study guidelines and ethics
We carried out the meta-analysis according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines.[24] As our research was based on data extracted from previously published studies, ethical approval was not required.
Search strategy
Electronic platforms such as PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus, and the Cochrane Library were thoroughly searched using the following terms: PD-L1, programmed death ligand-1, PDL1, B7-H1, B7 homolog 1, CD274, programmed cell death ligand 1, mesothelioma, MPM, and malignant pleural mesothelioma. The search was conducted up to 9 April 2020. The search strategies for PubMed are shown in the Supplemental Material online. Searches were limited to English-language publications. In addition, the reference lists of the retrieved articles were examined for potential eligible studies.
Selection criteria
Eligible studies were selected based on the following inclusion criteria: (1) patients’ MPM diagnoses were pathologically and/or histologically confirmed; (2) the studies recorded sufficient data to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) for overall survival (OS) and/or progression-free survival (PFS); (3) PD-L1 expression in tumor tissue was detected using immunohistochemistry (IHC) staining; (4) PD-L1 expression was stratified into high and low groups using a definite cut-off value; and (5) the studies were published in English. The exclusion criteria were as follows: (1) duplicate reports, meeting abstracts, correspondences, letters, and reviews; (2) studies without sufficient data for meta-analysis; and (3) animal studies and basic research. OS was calculated from diagnosis of malignancy until death due to any cause or until the date of last follow-up visit for still alive patients. PFS was calculated from diagnosis of malignancy until disease progression.
Data extraction
Two independent researchers (LJ and WG) extracted data in a standardized form from the included studies, and any disagreements were resolved via discussion with a third investigator (ZC). The information extracted from each study included the first author, country, year of publication, number of cases, enrollment duration, treatment, sex, median or mean age of patients, study design, survival endpoints, follow-up, cut-off values for high PD-L1 expression, HR estimate, and HR with 95% CI.
Qualitative assessment
Two investigators (XL and LX) independently assessed the methodological quality of all the included studies, using the Newcastle–Ottawa Scale (NOS).[25] The NOS includes three domains: selection (0–4 stars), comparability (0–2 stars), and outcome (0–3 stars). The maximum score of the NOS is nine points and studies with NOS scores ⩾6 are considered high-quality studies. Any discrepancies were discussed by all the researchers in the group, to reach a consensus.
Bioinformatics study using TCGA data
The RNA-sequencing data and corresponding survival analysis of patients with MPM were analyzed using TCGA data. We accessed the datasets through cBioPortal (http://www.cbioportal.org/). The “TCGA, PanCancer Atlas” dataset was selected, and 87 patients with available data were included. This dataset was selected because it contained the largest sample size in mesothelioma type of cancer. We requested mRNA expression with a z-score threshold of ±1.4, based on the median value and referring to previous literature.[26] Analyses of OS and PFS were conducted using Kaplan–Meier plots.
Statistical analysis
The prognostic value of PD-L1 for OS and PFS was calculated by pooling the HR and 95% CI values. The odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs were calculated to evaluate the association between PD-L1 expression and clinicopathological characteristics of MPM. The heterogeneity among the studies was detected using Cochran’s Q test and the I2 test. If the heterogeneity was significant (p < 0.1 or I2 >50%), a random-effects model (REM) (the Mantel–Haenszel method) was used; otherwise, a fixed-effects model (the DerSimonian and Laird method) was applied. We also conducted subgroup analyses to detect potential sources of heterogeneity. A survival analysis (using TCGA) of 87 patients was conducted in cBioPortal, using the Kaplan–Meier curve. Publication bias was analyzed using the Begg’s test. All the calculations were performed using Stata version 12.0 (StataCorp LP, TX, USA). A two-sided p-value < 0.05 was considered to indicate statistical significance.
Results
Literature search
A total of 452 records were identified through literature retrieval and reference list examination. Then, 299 duplicate publications were excluded, and 153 studies were screened by title and abstract. Subsequently, 119 studies were discarded and 34 studies[9,18-23,27-53] were left for eligibility assessment by full-text examination. Eighteen studies were excluded for different reasons: one study did not detect PD-L1 expression in sera samples other than tumor tissues,[37] 11 studies did not present sufficient data for meta-analysis,[9,38,39,42-48,52] two studies did not use unique cut-off value,[40,50] one study did not test PD-L1 expression,[41] one study was a letter to the editor,[49] and two studies recruited patients with pleural and peritoneal mesothelioma tumors other than MPM.[51,53] Finally, 16 studies were included in our meta-analysis.[18-23,27-36] The flow chart of the article screening process is shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Flow chart of included studies for the meta-analysis.
Flow chart of included studies for the meta-analysis.MPM, malignant pleural mesothelioma; PD-L1, programmed death-ligand 1.
Characteristics of eligible studies
The baseline features of the 16 included studies are summarized in Table 1. The studies were published from 2014 to 2020. The sample size of the individual studies ranged from 27 to 329, and our meta-analysis eventually included 1899 patients. Two studies were prospective studies[19,23] and 14 were of retrospective design.[18,20-22,27-36] All 16 studies[18-23,27-36] provided data on the association between PD-L1 and OS, whereas only two studies reported data on PFS.[19,30] With respect to treatment, seven studies enrolled patients receiving surgery,[18,27-29,31,35,36] three studies recruited patients receiving chemotherapy[19,33] or immunotherapy,[30] and six studies included patients receiving mixed treatments (chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and surgery).[20-23,32,34] The detailed information of antibody used in IHC for included studies is shown in Table 2. The NOS indicated that all the included studies were of high quality (score ⩾6); the detailed scores are shown in Table 3.
Table 1.
Main characteristics of the studies included for meta-analysis.
The Newcastle–Ottawa scale quality assessment of the enrolled studies.
Study
Selection
Comparability
Outcome
Total
Representativeness of the exposed cohort
Selection of the non-exposed cohort
Ascertainment of exposure
Outcome of interest
Control for factor
Assessment of outcome
Follow-up long enough
Adequacy of follow-up of cohorts
Ahmadzada et al.[18]
★
★
★
★
★★
★
–
★
8
Brosseau et al.[19]
★
★
★
★
★★
★
★
★
9
Cedres et al.[20]
★
★
–
★
★★
★
–
★
7
Cedres et al.[21]
★
–
–
★
★★
★
★
★
7
Combaz-Lair et al.[22]
★
★
–
★
★★
★
★
★
8
de Perrot et al.[23]
★
★
★
★
★★
★
★
★
9
Inaguma et al.[27]
★
–
–
★
★★
★
–
★
6
Kao et al.[28]
★
★
–
★
★★
★
★
★
8
Mansfield et al.[29]
★
★
–
★
★★
★
–
★
7
Metaxas et al.[30]
★
★
–
★
★★
★
–
★
7
Muller et al.[31]
★
★
★
★
★★
★
–
★
8
Nguyen et al.[32]
★
★
–
★
★★
★
★
★
8
Patil et al.[33]
★
–
★
★
★★
★
–
★
7
Sobhani et al.[34]
★
★
–
★
★★
★
★
★
8
Thapa et al.[35]
★
–
–
★
★★
★
–
★
6
Watanabe et al.[36]
★
–
★
★
★★
★
–
★
7
Main characteristics of the studies included for meta-analysis.IHC, immunohistochemistry staining; MPM, malignant pleural mesothelioma; NR, not reported; OS, overall survival; PFS, progression-free survival.Immunohistochemical methods for PD-L1 detection in the studies included in this meta-analysis.IHC, immunohistochemistry staining; MAB, monoclonal antibody; NR, not reported; PD-L1, programmed death-ligand 1.The Newcastle–Ottawa scale quality assessment of the enrolled studies.
Prognostic value of PD-L1 for OS and PFS
The data derived from 16 studies comprising 1899 patients were used to investigate the prognostic significance of PD-L1 for OS. The pooled results were as follows: HR = 1.53, 95% CI = 1.28–1.83, p < 0.001 (Table 4; Figure 2). As the heterogeneity was significant (I2 = 63.4%, p < 0.001), the REM was applied for calculation. For PFS, two studies consisting of 307 cases provided relevant data. The combined HR and 95% CI (HR = 1.07, 95% CI = 0.82–1.39, p = 0.643) indicated that the association between PD-L1 expression and PFS was not significant (Table 4; Figure 3). We then conducted a subgroup analysis of OS for further investigations (Table 4). The results showed that PD-L1 overexpression significantly correlated with poor OS irrespective of the sample size, treatment method, or PD-L1 cut-off value.
Table 4.
Summary of subgroup analysis in studies that reported overall survival and progression-free survival stratified by programmed death-ligand 1 status in patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma.
Forest plot of pooled hazard ratio for association between programmed death-ligand 1 and overall survival in patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma.
CI, confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio.
Figure 3.
Forest plot of pooled hazard ratio for association between programmed death-ligand 1 and progression-free survival in patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma.
CI, confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio.
Summary of subgroup analysis in studies that reported overall survival and progression-free survival stratified by programmed death-ligand 1 status in patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma.CI, confidence interval; FEM, fixed-effects model; HR, hazard ratio; REM, random-effects model.Forest plot of pooled hazard ratio for association between programmed death-ligand 1 and overall survival in patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma.CI, confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio.Forest plot of pooled hazard ratio for association between programmed death-ligand 1 and progression-free survival in patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma.CI, confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio.Meta-analysis of the association between programmed death-ligand 1 and (A) smoking (yes versus no), (B) clinical stage, (C) sex, and (D) pathological type in malignant pleural mesothelioma.CI, confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio.
Relationship between PD-L1 expression and clinicopathological characteristics in MPM
A total of five studies with 840 patients explored the connection between PD-L1 and four clinical factors, namely, smoking (yes versus no),[21,29] clinical stage (III–IV versus I–II),[21,35] sex (male versus female),[19,21,28,29,35] and pathological type (sarcomatoid + biphasic versus epithelial).[19,21,28,29,35] The pooled ORs and 95% CIs (Figure 4) demonstrated that PD-L1 overexpression correlated with the sarcomatoid + biphasic type of MPM (OR = 4.32, 95% CI = 2.16–8.64, p < 0.001). However, the association between PD-L1 and smoking (OR = 1.06, 95% CI = 0.56–2.05, p = 0.855), clinical stage (OR = 1.17, 95% CI = 0.76–1.81, p = 0.478), and sex (OR = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.67–1.54, p = 0.944) was not significant.
Figure 4.
Meta-analysis of the association between programmed death-ligand 1 and (A) smoking (yes versus no), (B) clinical stage, (C) sex, and (D) pathological type in malignant pleural mesothelioma.
CI, confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio.
Publication bias
Begg’s funnel plot was applied to assess the publication bias of the literature. The plot (Begg’s test: p = 0.964 for OS and 0.317 for PFS) demonstrated that there was no significant publication bias in the meta-analysis (Figure 5).
Figure 5.
Begg’s funnel plot for the assessment of potential publication bias. (A) For overall survival; (B) for progression-free survival.
CI, confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio; PD-L1, programmed death-ligand 1; s.e.of: lnhr, standard error of ln(HR).
Begg’s funnel plot for the assessment of potential publication bias. (A) For overall survival; (B) for progression-free survival.CI, confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio; PD-L1, programmed death-ligand 1; s.e.of: lnhr, standard error of ln(HR).
TCGA dataset validation of prognostic value of PD-L1 expression in MPM
To further validate and confirm the prognostic significance of PD-L1 expression for OS and PFS of patients with MPM, we evaluated the expression using TCGA data. The mRNA levels of PD-L1 were tested. A total of 87 samples were analyzed, with 86 and 84 samples accessible for OS and PFS analysis, respectively. The maximum follow-up period was 92 months. For the OS analysis, 86 patients were included; 14 and 72 patients exhibited high and low PD-L1 expression, respectively. In the PD-L1 overexpression group, 13 patients died, with a median survival period of 6.08 months. In the PD-L1 underexpression group, 60 patients died at the end of follow-up, with a median survival period of 19.99 months. The HR was 2.069, with 95% CI = 1.136–3.769 and p = 0.0175 (Figure 6). For the PFS analysis, 84 patients were included; 12 and 72 patients exhibited high and low expression of PD-L1, respectively. Eight patients in the PD-L1 overexpression group and 51 patients in the PD-L1 underexpression group exhibited disease progression with median PFS periods of 10.26 and 14.73 months, respectively. The HR of PFS was 1.205, with 95% CI = 0.572–2.539 and p = 0.624 (Figure 6).
Figure 6.
Kaplan–Meier plotter showing the prognostic role of PD-L1 mRNA expression for (A) overall survival and (B) progression-free survival in malignant pleural mesothelioma. Data were derived from The Cancer Genome Atlas dataset.
Kaplan–Meier plotter showing the prognostic role of PD-L1 mRNA expression for (A) overall survival and (B) progression-free survival in malignant pleural mesothelioma. Data were derived from The Cancer Genome Atlas dataset.CI, confidence interval; HR, hazard ratio; PD-L1, programmed death-ligand 1.
Discussion
The prognostic value of PD-L1 expression in patients with MPM has been controversial according to previous investigations. We therefore carried out a meta-analysis to identify the exact significance of PD-L1 expression for the prognosis of MPM. Our meta-analysis indicated that high PD-L1 expression is a significant prognostic factor for poor OS, but not for PFS, of patients with MPM. The prognostic value of PD-L1 for OS was further confirmed using TCGA data. Moreover, overexpression of PD-L1 was associated with sarcomatoid and biphasic histology of MPM.The PD-L1/PD-1 pathway is the prominent mechanism of peripheral tolerance in the immune system. PD-L1 was the first reported ligand of PD-1, and the binding of PD-L1/PD-1 could promote inhibition, the proliferation of T cells, and cytokine production.[54] PD-L1 is significantly expressed in different types of immune cells, including macrophages, B cells, T cells, myeloid DCs, and NK cells.[55] The PD-L1/PD-1 immune checkpoints can disrupt the PD-1 axis to reverse T-cell suppression and enhance endogenous antitumor immunity in various types of cancer.[11] There are several ongoing clinical trials to evaluate the efficiency and safety of single-agent and combination ICIs in MPM treatment.[9] An anti-PD-1 monoclonal antibody (mAb), nivolumab, showed clinical activity and an acceptable safety profile as a second-line treatment for recurrent MPM.[42] The NIBIT-MESO-1 study also demonstrated that the combination of anti-CTLA4 mAb (tremelimumab) and anti-PD-L1 mAb (durvalumab) was active, with a good safety profile in patients with mesothelioma.[46] In those studies, PD-L1 expression did not correlate with the outcome in patients receiving ICI treatments. Herein, we have shown the prognostic value of PD-L1 for poor OS of patients who underwent surgery, chemotherapy/immunotherapy, and systemic treatment. However, only one study involving patients who received pembrolizumab was included in this meta-analysis.[30] Considering that ICIs are promising therapeutic strategies for MPM, further studies are needed to identify the prognostic value of PD-L1 expression for MPM patients receiving immunotherapy.Many recent meta-analyses have also demonstrated the prognostic value of PD-L1 expression in solid tumors.[12,13,56,57] Zeng et al. showed that PD-L1 expression was associated with the prognosis of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) (HR = 1.70, 95% CI = 1.05–2.74, p = 0.031).[56] Li et al. reported that a high PD-L1 expression was associated with a shorter OS period of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.[13] In addition, a recent meta-analysis indicated that PD-L1 overexpression could predict poor survival outcomes related to bladder cancer.[58] Through our meta-analysis, we found a significant prognostic value of PD-L1 overexpression for poor OS, but not for PFS. The non-significant association between PD-L1 and PFS may be due to the limited number of studies included in the analysis. Therefore, the prognostic significance of PD-L1 for PFS should be verified via further studies. Moreover, in future prospective clinical trials, the prognostic impact of PD-L1 should be verified. It is also suggested to include PD-L1 testing in the diagnostic pathway of patients with malignant disease like MPM.Some limitations of this meta-analysis need to be noted. First, the heterogeneity among the studies is significant and cannot be ignored. Study design, treatment methods, and other factors can result in heterogeneity among studies. Second, non-English studies and studies with negative results were not included in our meta-analysis; this may have caused publication bias. Third, studies from the USA and Europe accounted for the majority of the included studies, which may have limited the applicability of the results to other regions of the world. Fourth, the studies for PFS analysis were too limited, because only two studies[19,30] were eligible. Although we did not restrict the treatment of eligible studies, the sample size for PFS analysis was relatively small. We suggested that more clinical trials investigating PFS should be validated, especially using various treatment methods including surgery, chemotherapy, and immunotherapy.
Conclusion
In summary, this meta-analysis shows that high PD-L1 expression is a significant prognostic factor for poor OS of patients with MPM; this has been verified using TCGA data. We therefore suggest that PD-L1 expression levels can be used to predict the clinical outcomes of MPM patients in the future.Click here for additional data file.Supplemental material, supplymentary_file for PD-L1 and prognosis in patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma: a meta-analysis and bioinformatics study by Liu Jin, Weiling Gu, Xueqin Li, Liang Xie, Linhong Wang and Zhongwen Chen in Therapeutic Advances in Medical Oncology
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