| Literature DB >> 33016814 |
Yiwei Guo1,2, Yong Yang3, Qian Bai4, Zhengwei Huang3, Zongwu Wang5, Dongxia Cai3, Shuo Li3, Xiaowei Man6, Xuefeng Shi6.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To evaluate cost-utility of universal Hepatitis B vaccination program in the Beijing city (Beijing).Entities:
Keywords: Beijing; Hepatitis B; cost-utility; economic evaluation; vaccination
Year: 2020 PMID: 33016814 PMCID: PMC8018439 DOI: 10.1080/21645515.2020.1807812
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Hum Vaccin Immunother ISSN: 2164-5515 Impact factor: 3.452
Figure 1.Decision-Markov model of universal vaccination and nonvaccination program
Figure 2.Prognosis of HBV-infected infants
Figure 3.Prognosis of HBV-susceptible infants
Parameters of decision-Markov models
| Base value | Range | Distribution | Reference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 202349 | - | - | 24 | |
| 82 | - | - | 25 | |
| 0.9995 | 0.9990–1.00 | Triangular | Estimated | |
| 0.977 | 0.932–0.995 | Triangular | 26 | |
| HBsAg positive rate among mothers | 0.031 | 0.01–0.0386 | 5,22,27 | |
| Universal vaccination | 0.059 | 0.037–0.0926 | Triangular | 28–30 |
| Nonvaccination | 0.4034 | 0.3228–0.484 | Triangular | 31 |
| Incidence of AHB ≥1 year | 0.03 | ±50% | Triangular | 32 |
| AHB to carriers | ||||
| <1 | 0.89 | - | - | 33 |
| ≥1 | e^(−0.65*age^0.46) | - | - | |
| Symptomatic | - | - | 34 | |
| Age<1 | 0.01 | - | - | |
| 1≤ age<10 | 0.1 | - | - | |
| Age≥ 11 | 0.3 | - | - | |
| AHB to CHB | - | - | ||
| Age≤5 | 0.25 | - | - | 35 |
| 6≤ age<19 | 0.06 | - | - | 36 |
| Age≥20 | 0.04 | - | - | 36 |
| Mortality of AHB | 0.0041 | 0.003–0.015 | Triangular | 22,32 |
| HBV Carriers to immunity | - | - | ||
| Age<20 | 0.012 | - | - | 34,37 |
| Age≥20 | 0.0226 | - | - | 38 |
| HBV Carriers to CHB | 0.0269 | - | - | 39 |
| HBV Carriers to Cirrhosis | 0.001 | - | - | 19 |
| HBV Carriers to HCC | 0.002 | 0.0005–0.0061 | Triangular | 36 |
| CHB to immunity | 0.0005 | - | - | 32 |
| CHB to cirrhosis | 0.02 | 0.0081–0.027 | Triangular | 32,34,36 |
| CHB to HCC | 0.005 | 0.003–0.0064 | Triangular | 34,36 |
| Mortality of CHB | 0.014 | 0.0077–0.0158 | Triangular | 32,40 |
| Cirrhosis to HCC | 0.0465 | 0.028–0.066 | Triangular | 22,36 |
| Mortality of cirrhosis | 0.0663 | 0.0243–0.3932 | Triangular | 32,40 |
| Mortality of HCC | 0.5 | 0.081–0.545 | Triangular | 22,32,41 |
| Mortality of other causes | Sample Survey Data of 1% of Population in 2015 in Beijing | 42 | ||
| 36.86 | ±25% | Triangular | 43 | |
| Estimated | ||||
| AHB | 16,316.06 | ±25% | Triangular | |
| CHB | 14,743.24 | ±25% | Triangular | |
| Cirrhosis | 32,304.96 | ±25% | Triangular | |
| HCC | 112,324.15 | ±25% | Triangular | |
| HBV carrier | 761.95 | ±25% | Triangular | |
| 0.03 | 0.00–0.05 | Triangular | 44 | |
| 32 | ||||
| Acute hepatitis B | 0.892 | ±0.142 | β | |
| Chronic hepatitis B | 0.912 | ±0.136 | β | |
| Cirrhosis | 0.755 | ±0.209 | β | |
| Hepatocellular carcinoma | 0.712 | ±0.254 | β | |
| HBV Carrier | 0.968 | ±0.081 | β | |
note: 1CNY = 0.15377US dollar in 2016[45]
Direct treatment cost in 2016 in Beijing (CNY)
| HB diseases | Outpatient | Inpatient | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| AHB | 1,113.30 | 15,202.76 | 16,316.06 |
| CHB | 1,958.91 | 12,784.33 | 14,743.24 |
| Cirrhosis | 1,579.30 | 30,725.66 | 32,304.96 |
| HCC | 2,078.17 | 110,245.98 | 112,324.15 |
| HBV carrier | 761.95 | - | 761.95 |
The annual direct treatment cost of HB-related diseases was deduced by multiplying direct treatment cost for per visit and average visit times per year of HB-related out/inpatients. The average visit times per year of out/inpatients due to HCC and other four kinds of HB-related diseases were 1.38/2.39 and 1.52/1.08 respectively, which was deduced by employing data from National Health Services Surveys in 2013.
Average cost and QALYs gains and ICUR of two scenarios
| Strategy | Average cost(CNY) | Average QALY gains | ICUR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unversal vaccination | 543.05 | 30.10 | −24,576.61 |
| Unvaccination | 11,615.52 | 29.65 | |
| Incremental value | −11,072.47 | 0.45 |
Direct treatment cost and QALY loss of HB-related patients under different scenarios
| Direct treatment cost (CNY) | Loss of QALYs | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HB diseases | Universal vaccination | Nonvaccination | Prevented value | Universal vaccination | No vaccination | Prevented value |
| AHB | 6,417,040.52 | 292,636,257.07 | 286,219,216.55 | 43.82 | 1998.19 | 1954.37 |
| CHB | 47,407,437.29 | 1,213,027,955.08 | 1,165,620,517.79 | 281.70 | 7188.84 | 6907.14 |
| Cirrhosis | 16,124,433.30 | 408,475,499.25 | 392,351,065.95 | 120.81 | 3032.88 | 2912.07 |
| HCC | 11,661,511.70 | 291,868,298.68 | 280,206,786.98 | 29.10 | 708.27 | 679.17 |
| HBV carrier | 5,910,016.05 | 144,381,602.28 | 138,471,586.23 | 249.40 | 6118.90 | 5869.50 |
| total | 87,520,438.86 | 2,350,389,612.36 | 2,262,869,173.50 | 724.83 | 19047.08 | 18322.25 |
Figure 4.Incremental cost-utility plane for vaccination vs. nonvaccination from healthcare perspective of 5000 simulations
Characteristics of socio-demographic variables of HB-related patients in 2016
| AHB | CHB | Cirrhosis | HCC | HBV Carriers | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outpatient (%) | Inpatient (%) | Outpatient (%) | Inpatient (%) | Outpatient (%) | Inpatient (%) | Outpatient (%) | Inpatient (%) | Outpatient (%) | Total (%) | |
| Male | 41(67.21) | 21(63.64) | 69685(65.11) | 1277(68.25) | 4986(63.55) | 1214(70.62) | 346(73.15) | 863(81.11) | 1854(41.51) | 80287(64.46) |
| Female | 20(32.79) | 12(36.36) | 37335(34.89) | 594(31.75) | 2860(36.45) | 505(29.38) | 127(26.85) | 201(18.89) | 2612(58.49) | 44266(35.54) |
| Age group (%) | ||||||||||
| x ≤ 30 | 22(36.07) | 5(15.15) | 20156(18.83) | 482(25.76) | 223(2.84) | 24(1.4) | 12(2.54) | 6(0.56) | 1731(38.76) | 22661(18.19) |
| 30 < x ≤ 40 | 18(29.51) | 14(42.42) | 32656(30.51) | 535(28.59) | 652(8.31) | 125(7.27) | 5(1.06) | 26(2.44) | 1580(35.38) | 35611(28.59) |
| 40 < x ≤ 50 | 15(24.59) | 5(15.15) | 22.90 | 434(23.2) | 1678(21.39) | 339(19.72) | 77(16.28) | 135(12.69) | 711(15.92) | 27903(22.4) |
| 50 < x ≤ 60 | 1(1.64) | 5(15.15) | 18931(17.69) | 279(14.91) | 2738(34.9) | 648(37.7) | 173(36.58) | 414(38.91) | 333(7.46) | 23522(18.89) |
| 60 < x | 11.90 | 3(9.09) | 10768(10.06) | 119(6.36) | 2555(32.56) | 575(33.45) | 206(43.55) | 481(45.21) | 111(2.49) | 14823(11.9) |
| Missing value | 0(0) | 1(3.03) | 0(0) | 22(1.18) | 0(0) | 8(0.47) | 0(0) | 2(0.19) | 0(0) | 33(0.03) |
| Total | 61(100) | 33(100) | 107020(100) | 1871(100) | 7846(100) | 1719(100) | 473(100) | 1064(100) | 4466(100) | 124553(100) |
aICD-10code of HB-related diseases: AHB-B16, CHB-B18, Cirrhosis-K74, HCC-C22, HBV carrier-Z22
bAverage age of outpatients/inpatients: 43.18/49.99
cMissing value represented individuals whose information of age was lost but with complete information of medical charge.
Death rate data of 1% of population in 2015 in Beijing
| Age group | Total population | Death population | Death rate (‰) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4 | 15569 | 2 | 0.128460402 |
| 5–9 | 12720 | - | - |
| 10–14 | 8092 | - | - |
| 15–19 | 10719 | - | - |
| 20–24 | 22750 | 2 | 0.087912088 |
| 25–29 | 36373 | 7 | 0.192450444 |
| 30–34 | 35943 | 3 | 0.083465487 |
| 35–39 | 27723 | 9 | 0.32464019 |
| 40–44 | 26742 | 10 | 0.373943609 |
| 45–49 | 26127 | 22 | 0.842040801 |
| 50–54 | 26904 | 50 | 1.858459709 |
| 55–59 | 23959 | 53 | 2.212112359 |
| 60–64 | 22325 | 65 | 2.911534155 |
| 65–69 | 13996 | 78 | 5.573020863 |
| 70–74 | 9079 | 124 | 13.65789184 |
| 75–79 | 8709 | 185 | 21.24239293 |
| 80–84 | 5757 | 231 | 40.12506514 |
| 85–89 | 2411 | 171 | 70.92492742 |
| 90–94 | 687 | 81 | 117.9039301 |
| 95–99 | 130 | 23 | 176.9230769 |
| 100~ | 21 | 5 | 238.0952381 |
| total | 336729 | 1120 | 3.326116848 |
Beijing 1% population sample survey in 2015. (2017). Office for Beijing 1% Population Sample Survey, Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics. China Statistics Press.