Literature DB >> 32559817

Real-world outcomes of advanced melanoma patients not represented in phase III trials.

Michiel C T van Zeijl1,2, Rawa K Ismail1,3,4, Liesbeth C de Wreede5, Alfonsus J M van den Eertwegh6, Anthonius de Boer3,4, Maaike van Dartel4, Doranne L Hilarius7, Maureen J B Aarts8, Franchette W P J van den Berkmortel9, Marye J Boers-Sonderen10, Jan-Willem B de Groot11, Geke A P Hospers12, Ellen Kapiteijn2, Djura Piersma13, Rozemarijn S van Rijn14, Karijn P M Suijkerbuijk15, Albert J Ten Tije16, Astrid A M van der Veldt17, Gerard Vreugdenhil18, John B A G Haanen19, Michel W J M Wouters1,20.   

Abstract

The aim was to provide evidence on systemically treated patients with advanced melanoma not represented in phase III trials to support clinical decision-making. Analysis were performed on advanced melanoma patients diagnosed between 2014 and 2017 in the Netherlands, treated with immune- or targeted therapy, who met ≥1 trial exclusion criteria. These criteria were derived from the KEYNOTE-006 and CHECKMATE-067/-066 phase III trials. Prognostic importance of factors associated with overall survival (OS) was assessed with the Kaplan-Meier method, Cox models, predicted OS probabilities of prognostic subgroups and a conditional inference survival tree (CIST). A nationwide population-based registry was used as data source. Of 2536 systemically treated patients with advanced melanoma, 1004 (40%) patients were ineligible for phase IIII trials. Ineligible patients had a poorer median OS (mOS) compared to eligible patients (8.8 vs 23 months). Eligibility criteria strongly associated with OS in systemically treated ineligible patients were Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Score (ECOG PS) ≥2, brain metastases (BM) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) of >500 U/L. Patients with ECOG PS of ≥2 with or without symptomatic BM had a predicted mOS of 6.5 and 11.3 months and a 3-year survival probability of 9.3% and 23.6%, respectively. The CIST showed the strongest prognostic covariate for survival was LDH, followed by ECOG PS. The prognosis of patients with LDH of >500 U/L is poor, but long-term survival is possible. The prognosis of ineligible patients with advanced melanoma in real-world was very heterogeneous and highly dependent on LDH value, ECOG PS and symptomatic BM.
© 2020 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.

Entities:  

Keywords:  advanced melanoma; decision tree; ineligibility; real-world outcomes; survival

Mesh:

Substances:

Year:  2020        PMID: 32559817      PMCID: PMC7689762          DOI: 10.1002/ijc.33162

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Int J Cancer        ISSN: 0020-7136            Impact factor:   7.316


American Society of Clinical Oncology brain metastases conditional inference survival tree Dutch Melanoma Treatment Registry Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Score European Society of Medical Oncology lactate dehydrogenase Magnitude of Clinical Benefit Scale median OS overall survival randomized controlled trials

INTRODUCTION

In recent years, treatment options for advanced melanoma have increased as immune‐ and targeted therapies became available. The randomized controlled trials (RCTs) used for marketing approval for these treatments showed major improvements in overall response rate, progression‐free survival and overall survival (OS) compared to standard treatments. RCTs are considered the gold standard to determine efficacy of new treatments. Strict inclusion and exclusion criteria are applied to create a homogenous patient population. This improves the internal validity of clinical trials which enables estimation of valid treatment effects of new treatments. A large proportion of real‐world patients with advanced melanoma are not represented in clinical trials. Real‐world patients not fulfilling the RCT inclusion criteria (ineligible patients) are being treated without evidence of the efficacy and safety in daily clinical practice. Donia et al concluded that also ineligible patients might have benefited from the introduction of new treatments. However, the ineligible patient population is heterogeneous. Additional information is needed to determine which subgroups of ineligible patients do not benefit from these new treatments. More efficient use of systemic treatment can spare patients severe adverse events , and perhaps reduce the financial burden for society. In our study, the nationwide prospective population‐based Dutch Melanoma Treatment Registry (DMTR) was used to report clinical outcomes of ineligible patients. Our study aimed to identify prognostic factors for survival for systemically treated ineligible patients, to predict survival for prognostic subgroups of ineligible patients and to order the impact of prognostic factors with a decision tree to help guide clinical decision‐making.

METHODS

Study design and patients

Patients of 18 years and older, diagnosed with unresectable stage IIIC or stage IV melanoma between January 1, 2014 and December 31, 2017, were included. Criteria to distinguish ineligible from eligible patients were derived from the KEYNOTE‐006 and CHECKMATE‐067/‐066 phase III trials. , , Patients were considered ineligible for potential trial participation if they met one or multiple of the following exclusion criteria: Brain metastasis or leptomeningeal metastasis In the DMTR data no distinction could be made between active or not active brain metastasis Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) of ≥2 Active autoimmune disease(s) Rheumatoid disease, systemic lupus erythematosus, vasculitis, inflammable bowel disease (Crohn's or colitis ulcerosa) Immune‐modulating medication Azathioprine or interferon Known history of Human Immunodeficiency Virus or AIDS Liver disease or failure or kidney failure Serious psychiatric disorder Schizophrenia, severe depression or psychosis Dataset cutoff date was June 1, 2019. The medical ethics committee judged that informed consent was not necessary for the DMTR and all patients were offered an opt‐out possibility.

Statistical analysis

Baseline patient and tumor characteristics of systemically treated ineligible and eligible patients were analyzed with descriptive statistics. OS estimates of these groups were estimated with the Kaplan‐Meier method. Survival times were calculated from the start of systemic therapy until death or last follow‐up. Median follow‐up time was estimated with the reverse Kaplan‐Meier method. Within the systemically treated ineligible patient population, univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the association of exclusion criteria and other clinically relevant prognostic factors with OS. Variables assessed were lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Score (ECOG PS), age, gender, metastases in ≥3 organ sites, brain metastases, liver metastases, year of diagnosis, auto‐immune disease, psychiatric disorder and BRAF mutation. We present the analyses of complete cases in Figure S1. The proportionality assumption in the Cox models was investigated by means of scaled Schoenfeld residuals. For further analyses, we created prognostic subgroups of patients based on the most important factors from the multivariable Cox model. We used the full multivariable Cox model to predict the patient‐specific probability of OS. For all subgroups the median OS (mOS) and 3‐year OS probability were calculated based on these individual predicted probabilities. To assess the potential benefit of systemic therapy in the absence of a historical cohort, we created a control group by selecting systemically treated and untreated ineligible patients diagnosed with advanced melanoma in 2013. We compared casemix‐adjusted survival curves of this 2013 cohort with our study population. In the 2013 cohort of ineligible patients, 29% received no systemic treatment, 14% received chemotherapy, 37% ipilimumab or BRAF inhibitor monotherapy as first‐line treatment and 21% of the patients received another systemic therapy (patients treated in named‐patient or compassionate use programs or in trials). We constructed a decision tree model using the recursive binary partitioning approach. The method of Hothorn et al was used to create a conditional interference survival tree (CIST). The variables used in the model were gender, age, LDH, ECOG PS, number of organs with distant metastases, brain and liver metastases, year of diagnosis and BRAF‐mutation. First, the model determines which variable is most strongly associated with OS. Second, a cut‐off value in this variable is calculated that optimally splits the data creating two most prognostically different subpopulations. The model then repeats these two steps taking the two new nodes as the basis. The model stops if no variable significantly associated with OS is left and no prognostic difference is seen when partitioning the subpopulation further. Data handling and statistical analyses were performed using the R software system for statistical computing (version 3.6.1.; packages tidyverse, lubridate, car, survival, survminer, partykit).

RESULTS

From 2014 to 2017, 3460 patients were diagnosed with unresectable stage IIIC and stage IV (advanced) melanoma prospectively registered in the DMTR. Patients diagnosed with uveal melanoma, age of <18 years and patients with missing values to determine eligibility or missing survival data were excluded from further analyses. Of the remaining 3009 patients, 1004 (40%) systemically treated patients with advanced melanoma were considered ineligible (Figure S2).

Eligible vs ineligible patients

The main differences in characteristics between ineligible patients and eligible patients were related to the exclusion criteria, such as the presence of brain metastases (n = 682, 67.9%), ECOG PS of ≥2 (n = 281, 28.0%) and the presence of active autoimmune diseases (n = 141, 14.0%) in ineligible patients (Table 1). Besides these differences in exclusion criteria, other baseline characteristics were significantly more common in ineligible patients compared to eligible patients, such as elevated LDH level of ≥250 U/L, stage IVM1c disease, liver metastasis, metastasis in ≥3 organ sites and the presence of BRAF mutation (Table 1).
TABLE 1

Patient and tumor characteristics of systemically treated for phase III trials ineligible and eligible patients

Ineligible (n = 1004)Eligible (n = 1532) P value
Median age, year (range)62 (19, 94)64 (19, 94).080
Age categories.035
<50 years176 (17.5)273 (17.8)
50‐59 years259 (25.8)320 (20.9)
60‐69 years

274 (27.3)

452 (29.5)
>70 years295 (29.4)487 (31.8)
Female422 (42.0)607 (39.6).238
ECOG PS
0357 (38.3)1028 (67.1)
1295 (31.6)504 (32.9)
2204 (21.9)
≥377 (8.3)
Unknown71
LDH level<.001
Normal528 (54.0)1052 (69.8)
250‐500 U/L283 (28.9)332 (22.0)
>500 U/L167 (17.1)124 (8.2)
Unknown2624
Stage<.001
IIIc17 (1.7)150 (9.8)
IV‐M1a22 (2.2)172 (11.2)
IV‐M1b29 (2.9)246 (16.1)
IV‐M1c934 (93.2)962 (62.9)
Metastases in ≥3 organ sites620 (61.9)549 (35.8)<.001
Brain metastasis
No308 (31.1)1532 (100.0)
Yes, asymptomatic237 (23.9)
Yes, symptomatic445 (44.9)
Unknown14
Liver metastasis311 (31.7)387 (25.4).001
Auto‐immune disease a 141 (14.0)
IM medication b 4 (0.4)
HIV or AIDS1 (0.1)
Psychiatric disorder c 51 (5.1)
BRAF mutant671 (66.8)833 (54.3)<.001

Note: Values are n (%) unless otherwise indicated.

Abbreviations: ECOG PS, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status; IM, immune modulating; LDH, lactate dehydrogenase.

Rheumatoid disease, systemic lupus erythematosus, vasculitis, inflammable bowel disease (Crohn's or colitis ulcerosa).

Azathioprine, interferon.

Schizophrenia, major depression, psychosis and other psychiatric disorders.

Patient and tumor characteristics of systemically treated for phase III trials ineligible and eligible patients 274 (27.3) Note: Values are n (%) unless otherwise indicated. Abbreviations: ECOG PS, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status; IM, immune modulating; LDH, lactate dehydrogenase. Rheumatoid disease, systemic lupus erythematosus, vasculitis, inflammable bowel disease (Crohn's or colitis ulcerosa). Azathioprine, interferon. Schizophrenia, major depression, psychosis and other psychiatric disorders. The mOS of systemically treated ineligible patients was shorter compared to systemically treated eligible patients (8.8 months (95%CI: 7.9‐11.0) vs 23 months (95%CI: 21‐27)). The 3‐year OS probability was 22% (95%CI: 19‐25) for ineligible patients and 41% (95%CI: 38‐43) for eligible patients (Figure 1). The median follow‐up of systemically treated ineligible patients was 38 months.
FIGURE 1

Overall survival of systemically treated ineligible and eligible patients estimated with the Kaplan‐Meier method [Color figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]

Overall survival of systemically treated ineligible and eligible patients estimated with the Kaplan‐Meier method [Color figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]

Treatment and clinical outcomes of ineligible patients

The composition of the systemically treated ineligible patient group and the exclusion criteria are shown in Table S3. A total of 862 (85.9% of the ineligible patients) patients would have been excluded from trial participation, because of either brain metastases or ECOG PS ≥2, or both. The first‐ and second‐line treatments of ineligible patients are shown in Figure 2.
FIGURE 2

First‐ and second‐line systemic treatment of ineligible patients [Color figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]

First‐ and second‐line systemic treatment of ineligible patients [Color figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com] In the multivariable Cox model, ECOG PS ≥2, elevated LDH ≥500 U/L and the presence of symptomatic brain metastases and liver metastases were negatively associated with OS. BRAF mutational status was not associated with OS (Table 3).
TABLE 3

Cox model of systemically treated ineligible patients for the association of prognostic factors with overall survival

UnivariableMultivariable
nHR (95% CI) P valuenHR (95% CI) P value
Year of diagnosis
201420311731
20152620.91 (0.75‐1.12).3832260.84 (0.67‐1.05).129
20162440.76 (0.61‐0.93).0092190.70 (0.56‐0.87).002
20172950.73 (0.59‐0.91).0042640.61 (0.48‐0.77)<.001
Age
≤501760.70 (0.56‐0.87).0021480.65 (0.51‐0.84).001
50‐592590.84 (0.69‐1.02).082280.79 (0.64‐0.98).032
60‐6927412451
≥702950.98 (0.81‐1.18).7922611.02 (0.83‐1.24).885
Gender
Male58215111
Female4220.90 (0.78‐1.04).1493710.91 (0.78‐1.07).245
ECOG PS
035713421
12951.46 (1.21‐1.75)<.0012781.35 (1.11‐1.65).003
≥22812.09 (1.75‐2.51)<.0012621.95 (1.52‐2.5)<.001
LDH
Normal52814751
250‐500 U/L2831.44 (1.21‐1.7)<.0012591.23 (1.02‐1.49).03
>500 U/L1672.64 (2.17‐3.2)<.0011481.89 (1.49‐2.41)<.001
Metastases in ≥3 organ sites
No38213391
Yes6201.57 (1.35‐1.83)<.0015431.25 (1.03‐1.51).021
Brain metastasis
Absent30812951
Asymptomatic2370.95 (0.78‐1.16).6142081.31 (0.98‐1.75).069
Symptomatic4451.25 (1.06‐1.48).013791.71 (1.34‐2.18)<.001
Liver metastasis
No67116021
Yes3111.64 (1.4‐1.9)<.0012801.22 (1‐1.48).049
Auto‐immune disease
No86317541
Yes1410.71 (0.57‐0.89).0031281.02 (0.77‐1.35).892
Psychiatric disorder
No95318351
Yes510.69 (0.49‐0.99).044470.93 (0.62‐1.4).721
BRAF‐mutant
No33313021
Yes6711.06 (0.91‐1.24).475800.94 (0.79‐1.12).474

Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; ECOG PS, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status; HR, hazard ratio; LDH, lactate dehydrogenase.

Comparison of the casemix‐adjusted survival curves of the 2013 cohort with our study cohort of 2014 to 2017 indicated that OS for ineligible patients has increased when more systemic therapies were available (mOS of 5.7 months vs 8.8 months, respectively). The 3‐year OS probability of the 2013 cohort was 7.5% vs 22% of our study cohort (Figure S4). The mOS of systemically untreated ineligible patients diagnosed with advanced melanoma from 2014 to 2017 (n = 327) was 2.4 (95% CI: 2.1‐2.8) months (Figure S5). We created 18 subgroups of systemically treated ineligible patients by combining the most important exclusion criteria from the multivariable Cox model, ECOG PS, and brain metastases with LDH level, as LDH level is an important prognostic factor for survival. , Each subgroup was assessed for the predicted mOS and 3‐year survival probability (Table 2). The predicted survival curves of individual patients in the subgroups showed substantial prognostic variation in survival between patients in a subgroup (Figures S6 and S7). The covariates BRAF mutational status, LDH, ECOG PS and brain metastases violated the proportionality assumption. To keep interpretation easy and avoid overfitting, time‐dependent effects of these risk factors were not modeled explicitly. The HRs have to be interpreted as averages over the follow‐up time. The predicted probability curves also represent these averaged effects. The nonproportionality of BRAF mutation was further investigated in a Cox model in which this variable was entered as a stratification factor.
TABLE 2

Subgroups of ineligible patients with predicted median overall survival and median of predicted 3‐year survival probability based on the multivariable Cox model

ECOG PSBrain metastasisLDH levelnPredicted mOS (months)3‐year survival (%)
0‐1Absentnormal8222.744.5
0‐1Absent250‐500 U/L3215.433.1
0‐1Absent>500 U/L147.915.3
0‐1Asymptomaticnormal11916.435.1
0‐1Asymptomatic250‐500 U/L639.921.0
0‐1Asymptomatic>500 U/L166.07.2
0‐1Symptomaticnormal19111.925.0
0‐1Symptomatic250‐500 U/L947.212.4
0‐1Symptomatic>500 U/L215.03.7
≥2Absentnormal5311.323.6
≥2Absent250‐500 U/L507.614.1
≥2Absent>500 U/L654.83.2
≥2Asymptomaticnormal311.022.7
≥2Asymptomatic250‐500 U/L66.28.1
≥2Asymptomatic>500 U/L104.83.1
≥2Symptomaticnormal376.59.3
≥2Symptomatic250‐500 U/L184.73.1
≥2Symptomatic>500 U/L243.40.3

Abbreviations: ECOG PS, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status; LDH, lactate dehydrogenase; mOS, median overall survival.

Subgroups of ineligible patients with predicted median overall survival and median of predicted 3‐year survival probability based on the multivariable Cox model Abbreviations: ECOG PS, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status; LDH, lactate dehydrogenase; mOS, median overall survival. The conditional inference survival tree resulted in six subgroups (Figure 3). The covariate with the strongest association with survival was LDH. For patients with an LDH level of >500 U/L, other covariates did not significantly influence the OS. The most prognostic covariate in the subgroup of patients with a normal or LDH level of 250 to 500 U/L was ECOG PS followed by symptomatic brain metastases.
FIGURE 3

Conditional inference survival tree incorporating disease and patient variables into prognostic models for survival, based on year of diagnosis, age, gender, ECOG PS, LDH level, distant metastases, brain‐ and liver metastases and BRAF mutational status. P‐values are from log‐rank statistics

Conditional inference survival tree incorporating disease and patient variables into prognostic models for survival, based on year of diagnosis, age, gender, ECOG PS, LDH level, distant metastases, brain‐ and liver metastases and BRAF mutational status. P‐values are from log‐rank statistics

BRAF mutational status

We performed an additional analysis of BRAF‐mutant vs BRAF wild‐type melanoma because BRAF mutational status was not associated with OS in the multivariable Cox model (Table 3). Baseline characteristics and the first‐line systemic therapies of BRAF wild‐type and BRAF‐mutated melanoma patients are shown in Table S8 and Figure S9, respectively . The casemix‐adjusted OS curves showed that the small survival benefit in favor of the BRAF mutated melanoma established in the first 6 months, disappeared after 10 months (Figure S10). Cox model of systemically treated ineligible patients for the association of prognostic factors with overall survival Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; ECOG PS, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status; HR, hazard ratio; LDH, lactate dehydrogenase.

DISCUSSION

Our study focused on clinical outcomes of ineligible advanced melanoma patients treated with systemic therapy in real‐world. There is no RCT evidence to justify treatment in these patients, but our study fills this knowledge gap and provides guidance in shared decision‐making. Forty percent of the systemically treated patients were considered ineligible following the exclusion criteria of phase III trials. , , Although OS of systemically treated ineligible patients was significantly lower than the OS of systemically treated eligible patients, the 3‐year OS probability of ineligible patients was still 22%. There was a high variation in (predicted) OS within the ineligible patient population, except for most subgroups with an LDH level of >500 U/L. The decision tree (CIST) technique identified clinically interesting prognostic subgroups that can be used to prognostically stratify and inform ineligible patients in daily practice. In‐depth postapproval research cannot replace RCTs, but it is necessary to try to substantiate the effectiveness of using new systemic treatments in real‐world patients. The distinction in eligibility for trial participation is factitious. Eligibility depends on having one or multiple exclusion criteria that were once defined for phase III trials, but not all exclusion criteria are equally important with regard to the prognosis and/or effect of treatment (ie, psychiatric disorder and immune‐modulating medication). The ineligible patient population is heterogeneous in itself and with different statistical approaches, we attempted to provide in‐depth evidence on what effect exclusion criteria have on survival in the real‐world. In our study, 86% of systemically treated ineligible patients had brain metastasis, ECOG PS of ≥2 or both. Brain metastases and ECOG PS were combined with LDH level, a nonexclusion criterion that is generally known for its prognostic and predictive importance, to create subgroups. , For subgroups of patients with (a)symptomatic brain metastases, the prognosis was relatively good, provided that ECOG PS was ≤1 and LDH level was normal. The decision tree (CIST) model also showed that ineligible patients with an LDH level of >500 U/L were a prognostic subgroup with poor survival. We previously showed the dismal prognosis in this group of patients and proposed switching to ICI upon response to BRAF(/MEK‐)‐inhibition with LDH normalization as a potential strategy to obtain long‐term survival in these patients. This information supports well‐informed use of systemic therapy in this patient group.

Clinical benefit

It is important to estimate the clinical benefit of systemic treatment in ineligible patients to decide whether possible treatment benefit is worth the risk of side‐effects for individual patients and the financial burden for society. Donia et al , found that the (unadjusted) survival of ineligible patients improved over time and suggested that these patients might have benefited from systemic treatment. In the Netherlands, there are no guidelines for patients with advanced melanoma recommending systemic treatment for specific subgroups. Results from RCTs have to be extrapolated to the real‐world population. For specific subgroups of patients, the choice to offer systemic therapy is, in most cases, based on the expertise of the medical team. In general, the interpretation of observational data for the effectiveness of treatment is complicated by the lack of a comparator. Moreover, a clear definition of significant clinical benefit is lacking. The American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Value Framework and the European Society of Medical Oncology (ESMO) Magnitude of Clinical Benefit Scale (MCBS) , were developed to assess the clinical benefit of new cancer therapies in clinical trials. However, lack of real‐world comparison prohibits translation of these scales into daily practice. We attempted to estimate the magnitude of the benefit from systemic treatment by comparing our study cohort to a surrogate control group from the DMTR. This surrogate control group was comprised of patients comprised of both systemically treated and untreated ineligible patients diagnosed in 2013 when only chemotherapy, ipilimumab and BRAF‐inhibitors (dabrafenib and vemurafenib) monotherapy were available as standard treatments outside a trial setting. We observed a mOS benefit of 3.1 months and a 3‐year survival probability increase of 14% to 22% of our study cohort (Figure 3). This suggests that ineligible patients have benefitted from systemic treatments. We are aware of the statistical limitations of the comparison with the artificially created “control group”. However, HRs of year of diagnosis 2016 and 2017 from the Cox also indicate that with the availability of more effective immune and targeted therapies, OS has improved for systemically treated trial‐ineligible patients with advanced melanoma in the Netherlands. Importantly, the full potential of ipilimumab plus nivolumab combination therapy may not have been achieved yet, because it only became available in the Netherlands in November 2016. A high proportion of systemically treated ineligible patients had a BRAF‐mutated melanoma. For patients who are in poor condition, which can be partly due to advanced melanoma, or patients with brain metastases (or both), the threshold to start with targeted therapy may be low. Targeted therapy for advanced melanoma is known for its potential dramatic antitumor activity and short time to first response. A notable finding in our Cox model was that BRAF‐mutational status was not associated with OS. The initial survival advantage of patients with BRAF‐mutated melanoma did not persist. Our results do not appear to support an alleged synergy of (sequential) treatment with targeted‐ and immunotherapy in the ineligible patient population.

RCT recommendations

Currently, evidence on the effectiveness of systemic treatment in patients with melanoma brain metastases is being generated in phase II clinical trials. , In our study, 27% of all patients with advanced melanoma had (a)symptomatic brain metastases. We found that of the trial exclusion criteria, that having brain metastasis was one of the most important prognostic factors for survival. We observed, on the other hand, that some of these patients with brain metastasis could still reach long‐term survival. Therefore, we advocate that patients with brain metastases should be included in RCTs. This will lead to a more representative casemix and an increase in evidence for effective systemic treatment of patients.

Limitations

There are limitations to our study. We used observational data of a nationwide population‐based registry to analyze daily practice. Systemic treatment of ineligible patients was dependent on considerations of the medical team and patient. The mOS of untreated ineligible patients in the same period was less than 3 months (Figure S6). This indicates that the selection of ineligible patients suitable for treatment was justified. However, we were not able to estimate the influence of systemic treatment, because we do not know what the outcomes would have been if untreated patients would have been treated and vice versa. The effectiveness of individual targeted or immunotherapies could not be investigated due to confounding by indication. We did not analyze safety of systemic treatment, and data on quality of life and exact treatment costs were not available, but these topics are important to further improve clinical decisions for starting systemic therapy in ineligible patients.

Strengths

Although we used registry data, we argue the data are of high quality since trained data managers check electronic patient records every 3 months with quality control of data by medical oncologists. The DMTR has nationwide coverage and includes patients without treatment as well. Results from our study can be used to inform patients on probable prognosis to make well‐informed shared‐decision and set realistic treatment goals. In patients with (multiple) unfavorable prognostic factors refraining from systemic treatment should be seriously considered. Our real‐world clinical results can be used in the treatment of future ineligible patients. The CIST method could also be used in future research for the entire patient population of advanced melanoma patients to further improve shared‐decision making. Furthermore, if individual trial data would be publicly available, comparison of RCT data with real‐world data could lead to a better understanding of clinical outcomes.

CONFLICT OF INTEREST

A. J. M. v. d. E. has advisory relationships with Amgen, Bristol‐Myers Squibb, Roche, Novartis, MSD, Pierre Fabre, Sanofi, Pfizer, Ipsen, Merck and has received research study grants not related to this article from Sanofi, Roche, Bristol‐Myers Squibb, Idera and TEVA, travel expenses from MSD Oncology, Roche, Pfizer and Sanofi and received speaker honoraria from BMS and Novartis. M. J. B. S. has consultancy relationships with Pierre Fabre, MSD and Novartis. J. W. B. d. G. has advisory relationships with Bristol‐Myers Squibb, Pierre Fabre, Servier, MSD, and Novartis. G. A. P. H. has consultancy/advisory relationships with Amgen, Bristol‐Myers Squibb, Roche, MSD, Pfizer, Novartis, Pierre Fabre and has received research grants not related to this article from Bristol‐Myers Squibb, Seerave. E. K. has consultancy/advisory relationships with Bristol‐Myers Squibb, Novartis, Merck, Pierre Fabre and received research grants not related to this article from Bristol‐Myers Squibb. K. P. M. S. has consultancy/advisory relationships with Bristol‐Myers Squibb, Novartis, MSD, Pierre Fabre and received honoraria from Novartis, MSD and Roche. A. A. M. v. d. V. has consultancy/advisory relationships with Bristol‐Myers Squibb, MSD, Roche, Novartis, Pierre Fabre, Pfizer, Sanofi, Ipsen, Eisai, Merck. J. B. A. G. H. has advisory relationships with Aimm, Achilles Therapeutics, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Bristol‐Myers Squibb, Celsius Therapeutics, GSK, Immunocore, Ipsen, MSD, Merck Serono, Novartis, Neogene Thereapeutics, Neon Therapeutics, Pfizer, Roche/Genentech, Sanofi, Seattle Genetics, Third Rock Ventures, Vaximm and has received research grants not related to this article from Bristol‐Myers Squibb, MSD, Neon Therapeutics and Novartis. All grants were paid to the institutions. The funders had no role in the writing of this article or decision to submit it for publication. All remaining authors have declared no conflicts of interest. Appendix S1: Supporting Information Click here for additional data file.
  23 in total

1.  Nivolumab in previously untreated melanoma without BRAF mutation.

Authors:  Caroline Robert; Georgina V Long; Benjamin Brady; Caroline Dutriaux; Michele Maio; Laurent Mortier; Jessica C Hassel; Piotr Rutkowski; Catriona McNeil; Ewa Kalinka-Warzocha; Kerry J Savage; Micaela M Hernberg; Celeste Lebbé; Julie Charles; Catalin Mihalcioiu; Vanna Chiarion-Sileni; Cornelia Mauch; Francesco Cognetti; Ana Arance; Henrik Schmidt; Dirk Schadendorf; Helen Gogas; Lotta Lundgren-Eriksson; Christine Horak; Brian Sharkey; Ian M Waxman; Victoria Atkinson; Paolo A Ascierto
Journal:  N Engl J Med       Date:  2014-11-16       Impact factor: 91.245

2.  American Society of Clinical Oncology Statement: A Conceptual Framework to Assess the Value of Cancer Treatment Options.

Authors:  Lowell E Schnipper; Nancy E Davidson; Dana S Wollins; Courtney Tyne; Douglas W Blayney; Diane Blum; Adam P Dicker; Patricia A Ganz; J Russell Hoverman; Robert Langdon; Gary H Lyman; Neal J Meropol; Therese Mulvey; Lee Newcomer; Jeffrey Peppercorn; Blase Polite; Derek Raghavan; Gregory Rossi; Leonard Saltz; Deborah Schrag; Thomas J Smith; Peter P Yu; Clifford A Hudis; Richard L Schilsky
Journal:  J Clin Oncol       Date:  2015-06-22       Impact factor: 44.544

Review 3.  Survival of patients with advanced metastatic melanoma: the impact of novel therapies-update 2017.

Authors:  Selma Ugurel; Joachim Röhmel; Paolo A Ascierto; Keith T Flaherty; Jean Jacques Grob; Axel Hauschild; James Larkin; Georgina V Long; Paul Lorigan; Grant A McArthur; Antoni Ribas; Caroline Robert; Dirk Schadendorf; Claus Garbe
Journal:  Eur J Cancer       Date:  2017-08-23       Impact factor: 9.162

Review 4.  Biology and treatment of BRAF mutant metastatic melanoma.

Authors:  Benjamin Y Kong; Matteo S Carlino; Alexander M Menzies
Journal:  Melanoma Manag       Date:  2016-02-12

5.  Efficacy and Safety Outcomes in Patients With Advanced Melanoma Who Discontinued Treatment With Nivolumab and Ipilimumab Because of Adverse Events: A Pooled Analysis of Randomized Phase II and III Trials.

Authors:  Dirk Schadendorf; Jedd D Wolchok; F Stephen Hodi; Vanna Chiarion-Sileni; Rene Gonzalez; Piotr Rutkowski; Jean-Jacques Grob; C Lance Cowey; Christopher D Lao; Jason Chesney; Caroline Robert; Kenneth Grossmann; David McDermott; Dana Walker; Rafia Bhore; James Larkin; Michael A Postow
Journal:  J Clin Oncol       Date:  2017-08-25       Impact factor: 44.544

6.  The majority of patients with metastatic melanoma are not represented in pivotal phase III immunotherapy trials.

Authors:  Marco Donia; Marie Louise Kimper-Karl; Katrine Lundby Høyer; Lars Bastholt; Henrik Schmidt; Inge Marie Svane
Journal:  Eur J Cancer       Date:  2017-02-12       Impact factor: 9.162

7.  Combined Nivolumab and Ipilimumab or Monotherapy in Untreated Melanoma.

Authors:  James Larkin; Vanna Chiarion-Sileni; Rene Gonzalez; Jean Jacques Grob; C Lance Cowey; Christopher D Lao; Dirk Schadendorf; Reinhard Dummer; Michael Smylie; Piotr Rutkowski; Pier F Ferrucci; Andrew Hill; John Wagstaff; Matteo S Carlino; John B Haanen; Michele Maio; Ivan Marquez-Rodas; Grant A McArthur; Paolo A Ascierto; Georgina V Long; Margaret K Callahan; Michael A Postow; Kenneth Grossmann; Mario Sznol; Brigitte Dreno; Lars Bastholt; Arvin Yang; Linda M Rollin; Christine Horak; F Stephen Hodi; Jedd D Wolchok
Journal:  N Engl J Med       Date:  2015-05-31       Impact factor: 91.245

8.  Broadening Eligibility Criteria to Make Clinical Trials More Representative: American Society of Clinical Oncology and Friends of Cancer Research Joint Research Statement.

Authors:  Edward S Kim; Suanna S Bruinooge; Samantha Roberts; Gwynn Ison; Nancy U Lin; Lia Gore; Thomas S Uldrick; Stuart M Lichtman; Nancy Roach; Julia A Beaver; Rajeshwari Sridhara; Paul J Hesketh; Andrea M Denicoff; Elizabeth Garrett-Mayer; Eric Rubin; Pratik Multani; Tatiana M Prowell; Caroline Schenkel; Marina Kozak; Jeff Allen; Ellen Sigal; Richard L Schilsky
Journal:  J Clin Oncol       Date:  2017-10-02       Impact factor: 44.544

9.  Serum lactate dehydrogenase as an early marker for outcome in patients treated with anti-PD-1 therapy in metastatic melanoma.

Authors:  S Diem; B Kasenda; L Spain; J Martin-Liberal; R Marconcini; M Gore; J Larkin
Journal:  Br J Cancer       Date:  2016-01-21       Impact factor: 7.640

10.  Real-world outcomes of advanced melanoma patients not represented in phase III trials.

Authors:  Michiel C T van Zeijl; Rawa K Ismail; Liesbeth C de Wreede; Alfonsus J M van den Eertwegh; Anthonius de Boer; Maaike van Dartel; Doranne L Hilarius; Maureen J B Aarts; Franchette W P J van den Berkmortel; Marye J Boers-Sonderen; Jan-Willem B de Groot; Geke A P Hospers; Ellen Kapiteijn; Djura Piersma; Rozemarijn S van Rijn; Karijn P M Suijkerbuijk; Albert J Ten Tije; Astrid A M van der Veldt; Gerard Vreugdenhil; John B A G Haanen; Michel W J M Wouters
Journal:  Int J Cancer       Date:  2020-07-04       Impact factor: 7.316

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  6 in total

1.  Medication Use and Clinical Outcomes by the Dutch Institute for Clinical Auditing Medicines Program: Quantitative Analysis.

Authors:  Rawa Kamaran Ismail; Jesper van Breeschoten; Silvia van der Flier; Caspar van Loosen; Anna Maria Gerdina Pasmooij; Maaike van Dartel; Alfons van den Eertwegh; Anthonius de Boer; Michel Wouters; Doranne Hilarius
Journal:  J Med Internet Res       Date:  2022-06-23       Impact factor: 7.076

Review 2.  Anti-PD-1: When to Stop Treatment.

Authors:  Y Jansen; A A M van der Veldt; G Awada; B Neyns
Journal:  Curr Oncol Rep       Date:  2022-03-26       Impact factor: 5.945

3.  In-Depth Characterisation of Real-World Advanced Melanoma Patients Receiving Immunotherapies and/or Targeted Therapies: A Case Series.

Authors:  Saira Sanjida; Brigid Betz-Stablein; Victoria Atkinson; Monika Janda; Ramez Barsoum; Harrison Aljian Edwards; Frank Chiu; My Co Tran; H Peter Soyer; Helmut Schaider
Journal:  Cancers (Basel)       Date:  2022-06-04       Impact factor: 6.575

4.  Clinical outcome of patients with metastatic melanoma of unknown primary in the era of novel therapy.

Authors:  Danielle Verver; Dirk J Grünhagen; Alexander C J van Akkooi; Maureen J B Aarts; Franchette W P J van den Berkmortel; Alfonsus J M van den Eertwegh; Jan Willem B de Groot; Marye J Boers-Sonderen; John B A G Haanen; Geke A P Hospers; Ellen Kapiteijn; Djura Piersma; Rozemarijn S van Rijn; Karijn P M Suijkerbuijk; Albert J Ten Tije; Gerard Vreugdenhil; Cornelis Verhoef; Astrid A M van der Veldt
Journal:  Cancer Immunol Immunother       Date:  2021-03-27       Impact factor: 6.968

5.  Real-world outcomes of advanced melanoma patients not represented in phase III trials.

Authors:  Michiel C T van Zeijl; Rawa K Ismail; Liesbeth C de Wreede; Alfonsus J M van den Eertwegh; Anthonius de Boer; Maaike van Dartel; Doranne L Hilarius; Maureen J B Aarts; Franchette W P J van den Berkmortel; Marye J Boers-Sonderen; Jan-Willem B de Groot; Geke A P Hospers; Ellen Kapiteijn; Djura Piersma; Rozemarijn S van Rijn; Karijn P M Suijkerbuijk; Albert J Ten Tije; Astrid A M van der Veldt; Gerard Vreugdenhil; John B A G Haanen; Michel W J M Wouters
Journal:  Int J Cancer       Date:  2020-07-04       Impact factor: 7.316

6.  Postapproval trials versus patient registries: comparability of advanced melanoma patients with brain metastases.

Authors:  Rawa K Ismail; Nienke O Sikkes; Michel W J M Wouters; Doranne L Hilarius; Anna M G Pasmooij; Alfonsus J M van den Eertwegh; Maureen J B Aarts; Franchette W P J van den Berkmortel; Marye J Boers-Sonderen; Jan Willem B de Groot; John B A G Haanen; Geke A P Hospers; Ellen Kapiteijn; Djura Piersma; Roos S van Rijn; Karijn P M Suijkerbuijk; Bert-Jan Ten Tije; Astrid A M van der Veldt; Art Vreugdenhil; Maaike van Dartel; Anthonius de Boer
Journal:  Melanoma Res       Date:  2021-02-01       Impact factor: 3.199

  6 in total

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