| Literature DB >> 32559817 |
Michiel C T van Zeijl1,2, Rawa K Ismail1,3,4, Liesbeth C de Wreede5, Alfonsus J M van den Eertwegh6, Anthonius de Boer3,4, Maaike van Dartel4, Doranne L Hilarius7, Maureen J B Aarts8, Franchette W P J van den Berkmortel9, Marye J Boers-Sonderen10, Jan-Willem B de Groot11, Geke A P Hospers12, Ellen Kapiteijn2, Djura Piersma13, Rozemarijn S van Rijn14, Karijn P M Suijkerbuijk15, Albert J Ten Tije16, Astrid A M van der Veldt17, Gerard Vreugdenhil18, John B A G Haanen19, Michel W J M Wouters1,20.
Abstract
The aim was to provide evidence on systemically treated patients with advanced melanoma not represented in phase III trials to support clinical decision-making. Analysis were performed on advanced melanoma patients diagnosed between 2014 and 2017 in the Netherlands, treated with immune- or targeted therapy, who met ≥1 trial exclusion criteria. These criteria were derived from the KEYNOTE-006 and CHECKMATE-067/-066 phase III trials. Prognostic importance of factors associated with overall survival (OS) was assessed with the Kaplan-Meier method, Cox models, predicted OS probabilities of prognostic subgroups and a conditional inference survival tree (CIST). A nationwide population-based registry was used as data source. Of 2536 systemically treated patients with advanced melanoma, 1004 (40%) patients were ineligible for phase IIII trials. Ineligible patients had a poorer median OS (mOS) compared to eligible patients (8.8 vs 23 months). Eligibility criteria strongly associated with OS in systemically treated ineligible patients were Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Score (ECOG PS) ≥2, brain metastases (BM) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) of >500 U/L. Patients with ECOG PS of ≥2 with or without symptomatic BM had a predicted mOS of 6.5 and 11.3 months and a 3-year survival probability of 9.3% and 23.6%, respectively. The CIST showed the strongest prognostic covariate for survival was LDH, followed by ECOG PS. The prognosis of patients with LDH of >500 U/L is poor, but long-term survival is possible. The prognosis of ineligible patients with advanced melanoma in real-world was very heterogeneous and highly dependent on LDH value, ECOG PS and symptomatic BM.Entities:
Keywords: advanced melanoma; decision tree; ineligibility; real-world outcomes; survival
Mesh:
Substances:
Year: 2020 PMID: 32559817 PMCID: PMC7689762 DOI: 10.1002/ijc.33162
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Int J Cancer ISSN: 0020-7136 Impact factor: 7.316
Patient and tumor characteristics of systemically treated for phase III trials ineligible and eligible patients
| Ineligible (n = 1004) | Eligible (n = 1532) |
| |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median age, year (range) | 62 (19, 94) | 64 (19, 94) | .080 |
| Age categories | .035 | ||
| <50 years | 176 (17.5) | 273 (17.8) | |
| 50‐59 years | 259 (25.8) | 320 (20.9) | |
| 60‐69 years |
274 (27.3) | 452 (29.5) | |
| >70 years | 295 (29.4) | 487 (31.8) | |
| Female | 422 (42.0) | 607 (39.6) | .238 |
| ECOG PS | |||
| 0 | 357 (38.3) | 1028 (67.1) | |
| 1 | 295 (31.6) | 504 (32.9) | |
| 2 | 204 (21.9) | — | |
| ≥3 | 77 (8.3) | — | |
| Unknown | 71 | — | |
| LDH level | <.001 | ||
| Normal | 528 (54.0) | 1052 (69.8) | |
| 250‐500 U/L | 283 (28.9) | 332 (22.0) | |
| >500 U/L | 167 (17.1) | 124 (8.2) | |
| Unknown | 26 | 24 | |
| Stage | <.001 | ||
| IIIc | 17 (1.7) | 150 (9.8) | |
| IV‐M1a | 22 (2.2) | 172 (11.2) | |
| IV‐M1b | 29 (2.9) | 246 (16.1) | |
| IV‐M1c | 934 (93.2) | 962 (62.9) | |
| Metastases in ≥3 organ sites | 620 (61.9) | 549 (35.8) | <.001 |
| Brain metastasis | |||
| No | 308 (31.1) | 1532 (100.0) | |
| Yes, asymptomatic | 237 (23.9) | — | |
| Yes, symptomatic | 445 (44.9) | — | |
| Unknown | 14 | — | |
| Liver metastasis | 311 (31.7) | 387 (25.4) | .001 |
| Auto‐immune disease | 141 (14.0) | — | |
| IM medication | 4 (0.4) | — | |
| HIV or AIDS | 1 (0.1) | — | |
| Psychiatric disorder | 51 (5.1) | — | |
| BRAF mutant | 671 (66.8) | 833 (54.3) | <.001 |
Note: Values are n (%) unless otherwise indicated.
Abbreviations: ECOG PS, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status; IM, immune modulating; LDH, lactate dehydrogenase.
Rheumatoid disease, systemic lupus erythematosus, vasculitis, inflammable bowel disease (Crohn's or colitis ulcerosa).
Azathioprine, interferon.
Schizophrenia, major depression, psychosis and other psychiatric disorders.
FIGURE 1Overall survival of systemically treated ineligible and eligible patients estimated with the Kaplan‐Meier method [Color figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]
FIGURE 2First‐ and second‐line systemic treatment of ineligible patients [Color figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]
Cox model of systemically treated ineligible patients for the association of prognostic factors with overall survival
| Univariable | Multivariable | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n | HR (95% CI) |
| n | HR (95% CI) |
| |
| Year of diagnosis | ||||||
| 2014 | 203 | 1 | 173 | 1 | ||
| 2015 | 262 | 0.91 (0.75‐1.12) | .383 | 226 | 0.84 (0.67‐1.05) | .129 |
| 2016 | 244 | 0.76 (0.61‐0.93) | .009 | 219 | 0.70 (0.56‐0.87) | .002 |
| 2017 | 295 | 0.73 (0.59‐0.91) | .004 | 264 | 0.61 (0.48‐0.77) | <.001 |
| Age | ||||||
| ≤50 | 176 | 0.70 (0.56‐0.87) | .002 | 148 | 0.65 (0.51‐0.84) | .001 |
| 50‐59 | 259 | 0.84 (0.69‐1.02) | .08 | 228 | 0.79 (0.64‐0.98) | .032 |
| 60‐69 | 274 | 1 | 245 | 1 | ||
| ≥70 | 295 | 0.98 (0.81‐1.18) | .792 | 261 | 1.02 (0.83‐1.24) | .885 |
| Gender | ||||||
| Male | 582 | 1 | 511 | 1 | ||
| Female | 422 | 0.90 (0.78‐1.04) | .149 | 371 | 0.91 (0.78‐1.07) | .245 |
| ECOG PS | ||||||
| 0 | 357 | 1 | 342 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 295 | 1.46 (1.21‐1.75) | <.001 | 278 | 1.35 (1.11‐1.65) | .003 |
| ≥2 | 281 | 2.09 (1.75‐2.51) | <.001 | 262 | 1.95 (1.52‐2.5) | <.001 |
| LDH | ||||||
| Normal | 528 | 1 | 475 | 1 | ||
| 250‐500 U/L | 283 | 1.44 (1.21‐1.7) | <.001 | 259 | 1.23 (1.02‐1.49) | .03 |
| >500 U/L | 167 | 2.64 (2.17‐3.2) | <.001 | 148 | 1.89 (1.49‐2.41) | <.001 |
| Metastases in ≥3 organ sites | ||||||
| No | 382 | 1 | 339 | 1 | ||
| Yes | 620 | 1.57 (1.35‐1.83) | <.001 | 543 | 1.25 (1.03‐1.51) | .021 |
| Brain metastasis | ||||||
| Absent | 308 | 1 | 295 | 1 | ||
| Asymptomatic | 237 | 0.95 (0.78‐1.16) | .614 | 208 | 1.31 (0.98‐1.75) | .069 |
| Symptomatic | 445 | 1.25 (1.06‐1.48) | .01 | 379 | 1.71 (1.34‐2.18) | <.001 |
| Liver metastasis | ||||||
| No | 671 | 1 | 602 | 1 | ||
| Yes | 311 | 1.64 (1.4‐1.9) | <.001 | 280 | 1.22 (1‐1.48) | .049 |
| Auto‐immune disease | ||||||
| No | 863 | 1 | 754 | 1 | ||
| Yes | 141 | 0.71 (0.57‐0.89) | .003 | 128 | 1.02 (0.77‐1.35) | .892 |
| Psychiatric disorder | ||||||
| No | 953 | 1 | 835 | 1 | ||
| Yes | 51 | 0.69 (0.49‐0.99) | .044 | 47 | 0.93 (0.62‐1.4) | .721 |
| BRAF‐mutant | ||||||
| No | 333 | 1 | 302 | 1 | ||
| Yes | 671 | 1.06 (0.91‐1.24) | .47 | 580 | 0.94 (0.79‐1.12) | .474 |
Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; ECOG PS, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status; HR, hazard ratio; LDH, lactate dehydrogenase.
Subgroups of ineligible patients with predicted median overall survival and median of predicted 3‐year survival probability based on the multivariable Cox model
| ECOG PS | Brain metastasis | LDH level | n | Predicted mOS (months) | 3‐year survival (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0‐1 | Absent | normal | 82 | 22.7 | 44.5 |
| 0‐1 | Absent | 250‐500 U/L | 32 | 15.4 | 33.1 |
| 0‐1 | Absent | >500 U/L | 14 | 7.9 | 15.3 |
| 0‐1 | Asymptomatic | normal | 119 | 16.4 | 35.1 |
| 0‐1 | Asymptomatic | 250‐500 U/L | 63 | 9.9 | 21.0 |
| 0‐1 | Asymptomatic | >500 U/L | 16 | 6.0 | 7.2 |
| 0‐1 | Symptomatic | normal | 191 | 11.9 | 25.0 |
| 0‐1 | Symptomatic | 250‐500 U/L | 94 | 7.2 | 12.4 |
| 0‐1 | Symptomatic | >500 U/L | 21 | 5.0 | 3.7 |
| ≥2 | Absent | normal | 53 | 11.3 | 23.6 |
| ≥2 | Absent | 250‐500 U/L | 50 | 7.6 | 14.1 |
| ≥2 | Absent | >500 U/L | 65 | 4.8 | 3.2 |
| ≥2 | Asymptomatic | normal | 3 | 11.0 | 22.7 |
| ≥2 | Asymptomatic | 250‐500 U/L | 6 | 6.2 | 8.1 |
| ≥2 | Asymptomatic | >500 U/L | 10 | 4.8 | 3.1 |
| ≥2 | Symptomatic | normal | 37 | 6.5 | 9.3 |
| ≥2 | Symptomatic | 250‐500 U/L | 18 | 4.7 | 3.1 |
| ≥2 | Symptomatic | >500 U/L | 24 | 3.4 | 0.3 |
Abbreviations: ECOG PS, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status; LDH, lactate dehydrogenase; mOS, median overall survival.
FIGURE 3Conditional inference survival tree incorporating disease and patient variables into prognostic models for survival, based on year of diagnosis, age, gender, ECOG PS, LDH level, distant metastases, brain‐ and liver metastases and BRAF mutational status. P‐values are from log‐rank statistics