Early changes in bone turnover predict longer-term changes in bone mineral density but not trabecular bone score in frail older women.

Clinicians and patients want to know if therapy is working early in their course of treatment. We found that early changes in bone turnover markers at 6 months were associated with long-term changes in bone mineral density but not trabecular bone score at 12 and 24 months.
PURPOSE: We sought to examine the association between shorter-term changes in markers of bone turnover and longer-term changes in bone mineral density (BMD) and microstructure in a cohort of frail elderly women with multiple comorbid conditions including osteoporosis.
METHODS: We performed a secondary analysis of a 2-year zoledronic acid trial for osteoporosis in 155 women residents of long-term care communities (mean age 86.9 years). We examined the association of the 6-month change in serum C-terminal crosslinking telopeptide of type I collagen (CTX) and serum intact procollagen type I N propeptide (PINP) with the 12- and 24-month changes in BMD at the spine and hip and the trabecular bone score (TBS), an indirect measure of bone microstructure.
RESULTS: For every 0.2-ng/ml 6-month CTX decrease, the corresponding increase in spine BMD at 12 and 24 months was 0.2% (p = 0.7210) and 1.1% (p = 0.0396), respectively; total hip BMD 1.1% (p = 0.0279) and 0.9% (p = 0.0716); and femoral neck BMD 1.7% (p = 0.0079) and 0.9% (p = 0.1698). Similarly, for every 20-ng/ml 6-month PINP decrease, the corresponding increase in spine BMD at 12 and 24 months was 0.9% (p = 0.0286) and 1.4% (p = 0.0012), respectively; total hip BMD 1.4% (p = 0.0005) and 1.4% (p = 0.0006); and femoral neck BMD 2.3% (p < 0.0001) and 2.0% (p < 0.0001). Bone marker changes were not consistently associated with TBS changes.
CONCLUSION: Shorter-term 6-month changes in bone turnover markers are associated with the long-term changes in BMD over 1-2 years in the spine and hip but not with TBS.