| Literature DB >> 32415953 |
Grzegorz Niewiński1, Szymon Morawiec1, Maciej K Janik2, Michał Grąt3, Agata Graczyńska1, Krzysztof Zieniewicz3, Joanna Raszeja-Wyszomirska2.
Abstract
BACKGROUND Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is associated with multi-organ failure and high short-term mortality. We evaluated the role of currently available prognostic scores for prediction of 90-day mortality in ACLF patients. MATERIAL AND METHODS Fifty-five (M/F=40/15, mean age 60.0±11.1years) consecutive cirrhotic patients with severe liver insufficiency (mean MELD 28.4±9.0, Child-Pugh score - C-12) were enrolled into the study. MELD variants and SOFA, CLIF-SOFA, and CLIF-C scores were calculated, mortality predicting factors were identified, and clinical comparisons between ACLF and AD patients were performed. RESULTS In total, 30 (55%) patients were transplanted (22 ACLF and 8 AD), and 20 (30%) died (19 ACLF and 1 AD). Five (9%) patients survived without liver transplantation (LT) (3 ACLF and 2 AD), and 3 transplant recipients died within 1 month. SOFA, CLIF-SOFA, CLIF-C OF, and INR were significantly associated with the incidence of 90-day mortality in competing risk regression analysis (all p<0.001). The model based on SOFA had the lowest BIC, with the optimal cut-off for 90-day mortality prediction ≥12, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of 0.901 (95% CI 0.779-1.000; p<0.001), and corresponding incidence of transplantation rates of 85.5% and 11.8%, respectively (p<0.001). Of note, the important role of 24-h urine output is emphasized. CONCLUSIONS In this series of ACLF patients, SOFA score outperformed the CLIF-C scores in predicting 90-day mortality. Multi-organ failure scores performed better in predicting patient mortality than conventional liver function assessment. LT is possible and remains effective in selected ACLF patients.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2020 PMID: 32415953 PMCID: PMC7249742 DOI: 10.12659/MSM.922121
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Med Sci Monit ISSN: 1234-1010
Factors predictive of 90-day mortality (entire cohort).
| Mortality | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Variables | exp (beta); CI 95% | p-Value | delta BIC |
| MELD | 1.10 (1.02–1.18) | 0.010 | 15.20 |
| INR | 1.98 (1.37–2.86) | <0.001 | 16.84 |
| BIL-T | 1.04 (1.01–1.08) | 0.024 | 18.98 |
| CREA | 1.26 (0.84–1.89) | 0.270 | 22.58 |
| MESO | 1.11 (1.02–1.22) | 0.021 | 17.08 |
| SOFA | 1.33 (1.21–1.46) | <0.001 | ref. |
| CLIF-SOFA | 1.40 (1.21–1.62) | <0.001 | 3.16 |
| CLIF-C OF | 1.64 (1.34–2.00) | <0.001 | 2.05 |
| Infection | 2.07 (0.79–5.41) | 0.140 | 21.80 |
| Diuresis | 0.38 (0.15–0.97) | 0.044 | 20.32 |
MELD – Model of End-Stage Liver Disease; INR – International Normalized Ratio; Bil-T – total serum bilirubin; Crea – creatinine; MESO – Model of End-Stage Liver Disease score to serum sodium ratio index; SOFA – Sequential Organ Failure Assessment; CLIF-SOFA – CLIF-Consortium modification of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment; CLIF-C OF – Organ Failure score; Data shown in this table represent results of competing risk regression analysis. The lowest delta BIC was found for SOFA score.
Figure 1Ninety-day mortality and liver transplantation cumulative incidence in patients with SOFA < or ≥12 points.
Comparisons between average predictive score values and CD163 levels in ACLF and AD subgroups of patients.
| Variables | ACLF n=44 (80%) | AD n=11 (20%) | p-Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| MELD | 31.1 (IQR 6.7) | 15.7 (IQR 10.8) | <0.001 |
| iMELD | 53.3 (IQR 9.8) | 37.8 (IQR 23.2) | <0.001 |
| MELD-Na | 32.1 (IQR 12.4) | 17.3 (IQR 32.6) | 0.024 |
| MELDNa | 33.1 (IQR 6.3) | 19.4 (IQR 16.3) | <0.001 |
| MESO | 23.7 (IQR 5.7) | 11.7 (IQR 9.3) | <0.001 |
| UKELD | 45.9 (IQR 7.4) | 36.4 (IQR 11.6) | 0.001 |
| SOFA | 10.0 (IQR 6.0) | 4.0 (IQR 2.0) | n.s. |
| CLIF-SOFA | 13.0 (IQR 5.0) | 7.0 (IQR 3.0) | <0.001 |
| CLIF-C OF | 12.0 (IQR 3.0) | 12.0 (IQR 3.0) | <0.001 |
| CLIF-C ACLF | 55 (34–69) | – | – |
| CLIF-C AD | – | 55 (35–71) | – |
| 1-month mortality risk | 40 (6–89)% | 4 (1–22)% | – |
| 3-month mortality risk | 60 (14–96)% | 13 (2–50)% | – |
| CD 163 | 2641.8 (IQR 249.3) | 2042.1 (IQR 938.6) | 0.001 |
MELD – Model for End-Stage Liver Disease; iMELD – integrated MELD; MELD-Na – MELD-sodium; MELDNA – MELD sodium; MESO – Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score to serum sodium ratio index; UKELD – The United Kingdom Model for End-Stage Liver Disease; SOFA – Sequential Organ Failure Assessment; CLIF-SOFA – CLIF-Consortium modification of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment; CLIF-C OF – Organ Failure score; CLIF-C ACLF – CLIF-Consortium Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure score, CLIF-C AD – CLIF-Consortium Acute Decompensation score. Data are presented as median and interquartile range (IQR). The U-Mann-Whitney test was used to compare groups. P values <0.05 were considered as significant.
The mortality risk (presented as median and range) according to CLIF-C ACLF or CLIF-C AD, where appropriated.
Comparison between clinical score values in transplanted ACLF patients and patients who died while waiting for a transplant.
| Variables | ACLF: liver transplanted | ACLF: death before liver transplantation | p-Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 22 (67%) | 11 (33%) | – |
| Age | 57.0 (IQR 11.0) | 59.0 (IQR 28.0) | n.s. |
| MELD | 30.7 (IQR 5.0) | 32.7 (IQR 10.1) | n.s. |
| MELD-Na | 34.4 (IQR 18.7) | 35.7 (IQR 10.6) | n.s. |
| CPC | 13.0 (IQR 1.0) | 13.0 (IQR 3.0) | n.s. |
| SOFA | 8.0 (IQR 3.0) | 15.0 (IQR 4.0) | <0.001 |
| CLIF-SOFA | 12.0 (IQR 3.0) | 16.0 (IQR 2.0) | <0.001 |
| CLIF-C ALCF | 54.5 (IQR 16.0) | 66.0 (IQR 16.0) | 0.003 |
| CLIF-C OF | 11.5 (IQR 2.0) | 14.0 (IQR 2.0) | <0.001 |
| ACLF Grade | 2.0 (IQR 1.0) | 3.0 (IQR 0) | <0.001 |
MELD – Model for End-Stage Liver Disease; MELD-Na – sodium MELD; CPC – Child-Pugh class; SOFA – Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score; CLIF-SOFA score – CLIF-Consortium modification of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment; CLIF-C ACLF – CLIF-Consortium Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure score, CLIF-C OF – Organ Failure score; ACLF Grade – the number of failed organs in Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure. The data are presented as median and interquartile range (IQR). The U-Mann-Whitney test was used to compare groups. P values <0.05 were considered significant.
Comparison between clinical scores in ACLF and AD liver transplanted patients.
| Variables | ACLF: liver transplanted | AD: liver transplanted | p-Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 22 (73.3%) | 7 (26.7%) | – |
| Age | 57.0 (IQR 11.0) | 54.0 (IQR 5.0) | n.s. |
| MELD | 30.7 (IQR 5.0) | 12.9 (IQR 7.3) | <0.001 |
| iMELD | 53.1 (IQR 8.7) | 36.5 (IQR 15.6) | <0.001 |
| MELD-Na | 34.4 (IQR 18.7) | 14.3 (IQR 17.6) | 0.002 |
| CPC | 13.0 (IQR 1.0) | 9.0 (IQR 3.0) | <0.001 |
| SOFA | 8.0 (IQR 3.0) | 4.0 (IQR 3.0) | <0.001 |
| CLIF-SOFA | 12.0 (IQR 3.0) | 5.0 (IQR 3.0) | <0.001 |
| CLIF-C OF | 11.5 (IQR 2.0) | 7.0 (IQR 1.0) | <0.001 |
MELD – Model of End-Stage Liver Disease; iMELD – integrated MELD; MELD-Na – sodium MELD; CPC – Child-Pugh class; SOFA – Sequential Organ Failure Assessment; CLIF-SOFA – CLIF-Consortium modification of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment; CLIF-C OF – Organ Failure score. The data are presented as median and interquartile range (IQR). The U-Mann-Whitney test was used to compare groups. P values <0.05 were considered significant.
Demographics, clinical characteristics and outcome data.
| Variables | ENTIRE cohort n = 55 | ACLF n= 44 (80%) | AD n=11 (20%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Age* | 60.0±11.1 | 52.9±11.2 | 53.4±11.5 |
|
| |||
| Male | 40 (72%) | 33 (60%) | 7 (13%) |
|
| |||
| Etiology | |||
| Viral | 15 (27%) | 12 (27%) | 3 (27%) |
| Alcohol | 25 (46%) | 22 (50%) | 3 (27%) |
| Other | 15 (27%) | 10 (23%) | 5 (46%) |
|
| |||
| CPC | |||
| Class B | 7 (13%) | 2 (5%) | 5 (45%) |
| Class C | 48 (87%) | 42 (95%) | 6 (55%) |
|
| |||
| MELD* | 28.4±9 | 31.0±6.7 | 16.0±6.6 |
|
| |||
| Outcome | |||
| LT | 30 (55%) | 22 (50%) | 8 (73%) |
| Death | 20 (36%) | 19 (43%) | 1 (9%) |
| Survivors without LT | 5 (9%) | 3 (7%) | 2 (18%) |
|
| |||
| CLIF-C ACLF | – | 54.5±24.8 | – |
|
| |||
| CLIF-C AD | – | – | 55.7±28.3 |
CPC – Child-Pugh class; MELD – Model of End-Stage Liver Disease; LT – liver transplantation; The data are presented as mean±SD and numbers with percentage in brackets, where appropriate.