| Literature DB >> 32134216 |
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Abstract
BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to test use of the Dutch leakage score (DLS), serum C-reactive protein (CRP) and serum procalcitonin (PCT) in the diagnosis of anastomotic leakage (AL) after elective colorectal resection in a prospective observational study.Entities:
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Year: 2020 PMID: 32134216 PMCID: PMC7260403 DOI: 10.1002/bjs5.50269
Source DB: PubMed Journal: BJS Open ISSN: 2474-9842
Basal and postoperative values of C‐reactive protein, procalcitonin and Dutch leakage score according to the endpoints
| Anastomotic leakage | Morbidity | Mortality | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | No |
| Yes | No |
| Yes | No |
| |
|
| |||||||||
| Basal | 10·32(28·43) | 10·76(22·42) | 0·544 | 14·35(28·79) | 9·16(19·67) | 0·003 | 25·35(40·35) | 10·54(22·57) | 0·009 |
| POD2 | 176·51(126·69) | 109·01(68·01) | < 0·001 | 143·57(89·08) | 96·49(61·79) | < 0·001 | 201·22(83·91) | 111·27(72·61) | < 0·001 |
| POD3 | 212·29(111·94) | 98·61(71·51) | < 0·001 | 143·83(94·95) | 86·45(61·12) | < 0·001 | 209·33(109·22) | 102·80(76·51) | < 0·001 |
| POD6 | 156·06(89·11) | 61·36(57·81) | < 0·001 | 97·79(78·71) | 45·67(41·17) | < 0·001 | 192·66(74·43) | 67·94(65·05) | 0·001 |
|
| |||||||||
| Basal | 0·11(0·21) | 0·13(0·40) | 0·648 | 0·14(0·35) | 0·12(0·41) | 0·089 | 0·31(1·00) | 0·13(0·38) | 0·265 |
| POD2 | 5·65(12·04) | 1·36(3·26) | < 0·001 | 2·81(6·59) | 1·03(2·37) | < 0·001 | 12·49(19·06) | 1·45(3·58) | < 0·001 |
| POD3 | 5·56(11·05) | 0·94(2·54) | < 0·001 | 2·24(5·86) | 0·67(1·56) | < 0·001 | 11·39(19·56) | 1·03(2·76) | < 0·001 |
| POD6 | 4·12(6·19) | 0·86(5·89) | 0·002 | 1·87(8·15) | 0·52(3·31) | < 0·001 | 12·70(12·93) | 1·02(5·83) | 0·002 |
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| Basal | 0·39(0·89) | 0·25(0·72) | 0·123 | 0·36(0·89) | 0·21(0·65) | 0·001 | 1·20(1·91) | 0·24(0·69) | < 0·001 |
| POD2 | 3·48(2·79) | 1·53(1·39) | < 0·001 | 2·35(2·06) | 1·31(1·12) | < 0·001 | 4·55(3·48) | 1·59(1·48) | < 0·001 |
| POD3 | 4·07(3·08) | 1·15(1·31) | < 0·001 | 2·25(2·22) | 0·87(0·90) | < 0·001 | 5·62(3·93) | 1·24(1·46) | < 0·001 |
| POD6 | 3·40(3·51) | 0·87(1·22) | < 0·001 | 1·79(2·22) | 0·50(0·61) | < 0·001 | 7·64(4·40) | 1·01(1·47) | < 0·001 |
Values are mean(s.d.).
Data available for 566 patients. CRP, C‐reactive protein; PCT, procalcitonin; DLS, Dutch leakage score.
Mann–Whitney U test.
Figure 1Basal and postoperative C‐reactive protein, procalcitonin and Dutch leakage score values according to the presence or absence of anastomotic leakage
Figure 2Areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for anastomotic leakage for C‐reactive protein, procalcitonin and the Dutch leakage score on postoperative days 2, 3 and 6
Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis
| AUC | Optimal cut‐off value | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | PPV (%) | NPV (%) |
| |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| |||||||
| POD2 | 0·451 | ||||||
| CRP | 0·706 (0·637, 0·773) | 114·97 | 73·0 | 59·0 | 08·3 | 97·7 | |
| PCT | 0·712 (0·642, 0·782) | 2·29 | 45·0 | 85·3 | 13·1 | 96·9 | |
| DLS | 0·747 (0·682, 0·812) | 1·51 | 72·4 | 67·3 | 10·3 | 97·9 | |
| POD3 | 0·481 | ||||||
| CRP | 0·807 (0·744, 0·868) | 163·20 | 69·4 | 83·4 | 17·5 | 98·2 | |
| PCT | 0·784 (0·723, 0·854) | 0·66 | 73·1 | 72·2 | 9·2 | 98·2 | |
| DLS | 0·836 (0·777, 0·893) | 2·01 | 68·5 | 88·8 | 23·8 | 98·2 | |
| POD6 | 0·894 | ||||||
| CRP | 0·815 (0·738, 0·891) | 81·54 | 80·9 | 75·4 | 23·0 | 97·7 | |
| PCT | 0·780 (0·704, 0·874) | 0·44 | 68·3 | 80·0 | 22·0 | 96·8 | |
| DLS | 0·786 (0·705, 0·865) | 1·02 | 63·8 | 85·0 | 27·8 | 96·3 | |
|
| |||||||
| POD2 | 0·915 | ||||||
| CRP | 0·661 (0·630, 0·692) | 114·97 | 61·0 | 65·4 | 43·1 | 79·6 | |
| PCT | 0·666 (0·636, 0·699) | 0·29 | 74·3 | 50·5 | 39·5 | 81·8 | |
| DLS | 0·667 (0·636, 0·697) | 1·51 | 56·2 | 74·7 | 49·1 | 79·8 | |
| POD3 | 0·764 | ||||||
| CRP | 0·688 (0·657, 0·718) | 104·23 | 61·1 | 68·9 | 46·6 | 80·0 | |
| PCT | 0·684 (0·654, 0·716) | 0·26 | 69·1 | 59·3 | 42·7 | 81·4 | |
| DLS | 0·721 (0·691, 0·750) | 1·51 | 50·2 | 87·3 | 63·7 | 79·8 | |
| POD6 | 0·462 | ||||||
| CRP | 0·567 (0·517, 0·615) | 57·34 | 70·9 | 42·3 | 28·4 | 81·8 | |
| PCT | 0·518 (0·461, 0·567) | 1·34 | 94·7 | 10·7 | 33·0 | 81·3 | |
| DLS | 0·532 (0·480, 0·582) | 0·03 | 63·1 | 42·7 | 35·2 | 70·1 | |
|
| |||||||
| POD2 | 0·340 | ||||||
| CRP | 0·807 (0·680, 0·932) | 126·93 | 88·6 | 64·2 | 2·3 | 99·8 | |
| PCT | 0·829 (0·703, 0·954) | 1·01 | 81·3 | 70·5 | 3·0 | 99·7 | |
| DLS | 0·823 (0·704, 0·942) | 2·52 | 72·2 | 81·0 | 4·3 | 99·6 | |
| POD3 | 0·251 | ||||||
| CRP | 0·793 (0·667, 0·918) | 128·22 | 83·3 | 70·4 | 3·3 | 99·7 | |
| PCT | 0·843 (0·719, 0·963) | 1·06 | 75·0 | 77·7 | 3·6 | 99·6 | |
| DLS | 0·869 (0·759, 0·979) | 2·02 | 82·4 | 86·3 | 6·7 | 99·8 | |
| POD6 | 0·072 | ||||||
| CRP | 0·913 (0·754, 1·000) | 107·09 | 100 | 80·6 | 5·3 | 100 | |
| PCT | 0·954 (0·801, 1·000) | 0·897 | 100 | 86·8 | 5·4 | 100 | |
| DLS | 0·978 (0·894, 1·000) | 3·51 | 100 | 94·5 | 18·4 | 100 |
Values in parentheses are 95 per cent confidence intervals.
Values are mg/l for C‐reactive protein (CRP) and μg/l for procalcitonin (PCT).
Data available for 566 patients. AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; PPV, positive predictive value; NPV, negative predictive value; POD, postoperative day; DLS, Dutch leakage score.
χ2 test (comparison of AUC values).
Logistic regression analysis for the presence of anastomotic leakage according to the optimal cut‐off point for the three predictors
| Coefficient | s.e. |
|
| |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| ||||
| CRP | 0·920 | 0·297 | 3·09 | 0·002 |
| PTC | 0·895 | 0·271 | 3·30 | 0·001 |
| DLS | 1·520 | 0·292 | 5·20 | < 0·001 |
| Constant | −4·640 | 0·307 | −15·11 | < 0·001 |
|
| ||||
| CRP | 1·553 | 0·322 | 4·83 | 0·001 |
| PTC | 1·046 | 0·329 | 3·18 | 0·001 |
| DLS | 2·214 | 0·297 | 7·46 | < 0·001 |
| Constant | −5·005 | 0·309 | −16·20 | < 0·001 |
|
| ||||
| CRP | 1·482 | 0·465 | 3·19 | 0·001 |
| PTC | 1·474 | 0·415 | 3·55 | < 0·001 |
| DLS | 1·705 | 0·401 | 4·25 | < 0·001 |
| Constant | −4·775 | 0·413 | −10·98 | < 0·001 |
POD, postoperative day; CRP, C‐reactive protein; PTC, procalcitonin; DLS, Dutch leakage score.
Probability of the presence or absence of anastomotic leakage according to combinations of predictor values in relation to their optimal cut‐off points
| Probability of AL (%) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POD2 | POD3 | POD6 | ||||
| Combination | PPV | NPV | PPV | NPV | PPV | NPV |
| CRP>, PCT>, DLS> | 21·3 | 78·7 | 33·4 | 66·6 | 47·1 | 52·9 |
| CRP>, PCT≤, DLS> | 10·0 | 90·0 | 15·0 | 85·0 | 17·0 | 83·0 |
| CRP≤, PCT>, DLS> | 9·8 | 90·2 | 14·8 | 85·2 | 16·9 | 83·1 |
| CRP>, PCT>, DLS≤ | 5·6 | 94·4 | 5·8 | 94·2 | 14·0 | 86·0 |
| CRP≤, PCT≤, DLS> | 4·2 | 95·8 | 5·2 | 94·8 | 4·4 | 95·6 |
| CRP>, PCT≤, DLS≤ | 2·4 | 97·6 | 1·9 | 98·1 | 3·6 | 96·4 |
| CRP≤, PCT>, DLS≤ | 2·3 | 97·7 | 1·9 | 98·1 | 3·6 | 96·4 |
| CRP≤, PCT≤, DLS≤ | 1·0 | 99·0 | 0·7 | 99·3 | 0·8 | 99·2 |
>, Indicates value above optimal cut‐off point; ≤, indicates value equal to or less than optimal cut‐off point. AL, anastomotic leakage; POD, postoperative day; PPV, positive predictive value; NPV, negative predictive value; CRP, C‐reactive protein; PCT, procalcitonin; DLS, Dutch leakage score.