| Literature DB >> 32103063 |
Simone Accordini1, Lucia Calciano2, Alessandro Marcon2, Giancarlo Pesce2,3, Josep M Antó4,5,6,7, Anna B Beckmeyer-Borowko8,9, Anne-Elie Carsin4,6,7, Angelo G Corsico10, Medea Imboden8,9, Christer Janson11, Dirk Keidel8,9, Francesca Locatelli2, Cecilie Svanes12,13, Peter G J Burney14,15, Deborah Jarvis14,15, Nicole M Probst-Hensch8,9, Cosetta Minelli14.
Abstract
Investigating COPD trends may help healthcare providers to forecast future disease burden. We estimated sex- and smoking-specific incidence trends of pre-bronchodilator airflow obstruction (AO) among adults without asthma from 11 European countries within a 20-year follow-up (ECRHS and SAPALDIA cohorts). We also quantified the extent of misclassification in the definition based on pre-bronchodilator spirometry (using post-bronchodilator measurements from a subsample of subjects) and we used this information to estimate the incidence of post-bronchodilator AO (AOpost-BD), which is the primary characteristic of COPD. AO incidence was 4.4 (95% CI: 3.5-5.3) male and 3.8 (3.1-4.6) female cases/1,000/year. Among ever smokers (median pack-years: 20, males; 12, females), AO incidence significantly increased with ageing in men only [incidence rate ratio (IRR), 1-year increase: 1.05 (1.03-1.07)]. A strong exposure-response relationship with smoking was found both in males [IRR, 1-pack-year increase: 1.03 (1.02-1.04)] and females [1.03 (1.02-1.05)]. The positive predictive value of AO for AOpost-BD was 59.1% (52.0-66.2%) in men and 42.6% (35.1-50.1%) in women. AOpost-BD incidence was 2.6 (1.7-3.4) male and 1.6 (1.0-2.2) female cases/1,000/year. AO incidence was considerable in Europe and the sex-specific ageing-related increase among ever smokers was strongly related to cumulative tobacco exposure. AOpost-BD incidence is expected to be half of AO incidence.Entities:
Mesh:
Substances:
Year: 2020 PMID: 32103063 PMCID: PMC7044325 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-60478-5
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Sci Rep ISSN: 2045-2322 Impact factor: 4.379
Figure 1Selection of the subjects at risk for AO. Pre-BD: pre-bronchodilator.
Main characteristics of the subjects at risk for AO.
| N° of subjects | Males | Females |
|---|---|---|
| 3,076 | 3,192 | |
| Age at baseline (years), mean (range) | 36 (25–48) | 36 (25–47) |
| Subjects who participated and had valid lung function measurements at all examinations, % | 59.5 | 60.6 |
| Duration of the follow-up (years)*, mean (range) | 15 (1–20) | 15 (1–20) |
| Ever smokers at baseline and/or follow-up, % | 65.9 | 56.5 |
| N° of lifetime pack-years among ever smokers, median (IQR) | 20 (9–34) | 12 (4–23) |
| 1st examination (baseline) | 79.8 ± 5.1 | 83.2 ± 5.2 |
| 2nd examination | 77.3 ± 5.6 | 78.8 ± 5.7 |
| 3rd examination | 75.2 ± 5.6 | 76.2 ± 5.2 |
IQR: interquartile range; s.d.: standard deviation. *The end of the follow-up was the estimated calendar year of AO onset for the incident cases and the calendar year of the last examination for the remaining subjects.
Incidence of AO.
| Males | Females | |
|---|---|---|
| N° of incident cases | 208 | 194 |
| person-years at risk | 45,536 | 48,135 |
| cases/1,000/year (95% CI) | 4.4 (3.5–5.3) | 3.8 (3.1–4.6) |
| N° of incident cases | 39 | 61 |
| person-years at risk | 16,094 | 21,451 |
| cases/1,000/year (95% CI) | 2.3 (1.5–3.2) | 2.7 (1.9–3.4) |
| N° of incident cases | 168 | 133 |
| person-years at risk | 29,368 | 26,657 |
| cases/1,000/year (95% CI) | 5.5 (4.3–6.6) | 4.8 (3.8–5.8) |
Figure 2Age trends in AO incidence among males (blue line) and females (red line). Dotted lines represent the 95% confidence limits.
Figure 3Age trends in AO incidence among ever smokers (black line) and never smokers (green line), according to sex. Dotted lines represent the 95% confidence limits.
Figure 4Relationship between AO incidence and lifetime pack-years among male ever smokers (blue line) and female ever smokers (red line). Dotted lines represent the 95% confidence limits.