Sandra M Shi1,2, Ellen P McCarthy3,4, Susan L Mitchell3,4, Dae Hyun Kim3,4. 1. Hinda and Arthur Marcus Institute for Aging, Hebrew Senior Life, Boston, MA, USA. sandrashi@hsl.harvard.edu. 2. Department of Medicine, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA. sandrashi@hsl.harvard.edu. 3. Hinda and Arthur Marcus Institute for Aging, Hebrew Senior Life, Boston, MA, USA. 4. Department of Medicine, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Mortality prediction models are useful to guide clinical decision-making based on prognosis. The frailty index, which allows prognostication and personalized care planning, has not been directly compared with validated prognostic models. OBJECTIVE: To compare the discrimination of mortality, disability, falls, and hospitalization between a frailty index and validated prognostic indices. DESIGN: Secondary Analysis of the National Health and Aging Trends Study. PARTICIPANTS: Seven thousand thirty-three Medicare beneficiaries 65 years or older. MEASUREMENTS: We measured a deficit-accumulation frailty index, Schonberg index, and Lee index at the 2011 baseline assessment. Primary outcome was mortality at 5 years. Secondary outcomes were decline in activities of daily living (ADL), decline in instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), fall, and hospitalization at 1 year. We used C-statistics to compare discrimination between indices, adjusting for age and sex. RESULTS: The study population included 4146 (44.8%) with age ≥ 75 years, with a median frailty index of 0.15 (interquartile range 0.09-0.25). A total of 1385 participants died (14.7%) and 2386 (35.2%) were lost to follow-up. Frailty, Schonberg, and Lee indices predicted mortality similarly: C-statistics (95% confidence interval) were 0.78 (0.77-0.80) for frailty index; 0.79 (0.78-0.81) for Schonberg index; and 0.78 (0.77-0.80) for Lee index. The frailty index had higher C-statistics for decline in ADL function (frailty index, 0.80 [0.78-0.83]; Schonberg, 0.74 [0.72-0.76]; Lee, 0.74 [0.71-0.77]) and falls (frailty index, 0.66 [0.65-0.68]; Schonberg, 0.61 [0.58-0.63]; Lee, 0.61 [0.59-0.63]). C-statistics were similar for decline in IADL function (frailty index, 0.61 [0.59-0.63]; Schonberg, 0.60 [0.59-0.62]; Lee, 0.60 [0.58-0.62]) and hospitalizations (frailty index, 0.68 [0.66-0.70]; Schonberg, 0.68 [0.66-0.69]; Lee, 0.65 [0.63-0.67]). CONCLUSIONS: A deficit-accumulation frailty index performs as well as prognostic indices for mortality prediction, and better predicts ADL disability and falls in community-dwelling older adults. Frailty assessment offers a unifying approach to risk stratification for key health outcomes relevant to older adults.
BACKGROUND: Mortality prediction models are useful to guide clinical decision-making based on prognosis. The frailty index, which allows prognostication and personalized care planning, has not been directly compared with validated prognostic models. OBJECTIVE: To compare the discrimination of mortality, disability, falls, and hospitalization between a frailty index and validated prognostic indices. DESIGN: Secondary Analysis of the National Health and Aging Trends Study. PARTICIPANTS: Seven thousand thirty-three Medicare beneficiaries 65 years or older. MEASUREMENTS: We measured a deficit-accumulation frailty index, Schonberg index, and Lee index at the 2011 baseline assessment. Primary outcome was mortality at 5 years. Secondary outcomes were decline in activities of daily living (ADL), decline in instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), fall, and hospitalization at 1 year. We used C-statistics to compare discrimination between indices, adjusting for age and sex. RESULTS: The study population included 4146 (44.8%) with age ≥ 75 years, with a median frailty index of 0.15 (interquartile range 0.09-0.25). A total of 1385 participants died (14.7%) and 2386 (35.2%) were lost to follow-up. Frailty, Schonberg, and Lee indices predicted mortality similarly: C-statistics (95% confidence interval) were 0.78 (0.77-0.80) for frailty index; 0.79 (0.78-0.81) for Schonberg index; and 0.78 (0.77-0.80) for Lee index. The frailty index had higher C-statistics for decline in ADL function (frailty index, 0.80 [0.78-0.83]; Schonberg, 0.74 [0.72-0.76]; Lee, 0.74 [0.71-0.77]) and falls (frailty index, 0.66 [0.65-0.68]; Schonberg, 0.61 [0.58-0.63]; Lee, 0.61 [0.59-0.63]). C-statistics were similar for decline in IADL function (frailty index, 0.61 [0.59-0.63]; Schonberg, 0.60 [0.59-0.62]; Lee, 0.60 [0.58-0.62]) and hospitalizations (frailty index, 0.68 [0.66-0.70]; Schonberg, 0.68 [0.66-0.69]; Lee, 0.65 [0.63-0.67]). CONCLUSIONS: A deficit-accumulation frailty index performs as well as prognostic indices for mortality prediction, and better predicts ADL disability and falls in community-dwelling older adults. Frailty assessment offers a unifying approach to risk stratification for key health outcomes relevant to older adults.
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