| Literature DB >> 26944937 |
Andrew Clegg1, Chris Bates2, John Young3, Ronan Ryan4, Linda Nichols4, Elizabeth Ann Teale3, Mohammed A Mohammed5, John Parry6, Tom Marshall4.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: frailty is an especially problematic expression of population ageing. International guidelines recommend routine identification of frailty to provide evidence-based treatment, but currently available tools require additional resource.Entities:
Keywords: cumulative deficit; electronic frailty index; electronic health record; frailty; older people; primary care
Mesh:
Year: 2016 PMID: 26944937 PMCID: PMC4846793 DOI: 10.1093/ageing/afw039
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Age Ageing ISSN: 0002-0729 Impact factor: 10.668
Baseline characteristics
| Characteristic | Development cohort ( | Internal validation cohort ( | External validation cohort ( |
|---|---|---|---|
| Age (years) | 75.0 (7.2) | 75.0 (7.3) | 75.0 (7.3) |
| Gender | |||
| Male | 45% | 45% | 44% |
| Female | 55% | 55% | 56% |
| FI score: mean (SD) | 0.14 (0.09) | 0.14 (0.09) | 0.15 (0.10) |
| Males: mean (SD) | 0.13 (0.09) | 0.13 (0.09) | 0.14 (0.10) |
| Females: mean (SD) | 0.15 (0.10) | 0.15 (0.10) | 0.16 (0.10) |
| FI score 99th centile | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.42 |
| Frailty categorya | |||
| Fit | 50% | 50% | 43% |
| Mild | 35% | 35% | 37% |
| Moderate | 12% | 12% | 16% |
| Severe | 3% | 3% | 4% |
| Number of comorbidities | 2.1 (1.2) | 2.2 (1.1) | 2.3 (1.3) |
| Number of medications | 8 (8.0) | 8 (8.1) | 9 (6.8) |
| Townsend quintile (social deprivation)b | |||
| 1 (least deprived) | 28% | 28% | 27% |
| 2 | 18% | 18% | 24% |
| 3 | 23% | 23% | 20% |
| 4 | 16% | 16% | 16% |
| 5 | 15% | 15% | 11% |
All values are mean (SD) unless otherwise stated. Comorbidities defined using Health Survey for England definition (cardiovascular disease; diabetes; cancer; chronic lung disease; asthma; arthritis; osteoporosis; Parkinson's disease; any emotional, nervous or psychiatric disease).
FI, frailty index.
aFI scores of 0–0.12 = fit; >0.12–0.24 = mild frailty; >0.24–0.36 = moderate frailty; >0.36 = severe frailty.
b2% missing data on social deprivation in external validation cohort.
Unadjusted and adjusted 1, 3 and 5 year hazard ratios for outcomes of mortality, unplanned hospitalisation and nursing home admission for older people with mild, moderate and severe frailty
| Outcome | Internal validation cohort | External validation cohort | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mild frailty | Moderate frailty | Severe frailty | Mild frailty | Moderate frailty | Severe frailty | |
| 1 Year mortality HR (95% CI) | ||||||
| Unadjusted | 2.71 (2.56–2.88) | 5.87 (5.51–6.24) | 10.28 (9.50–11.12) | 2.55 (2.44–2.66) | 5.30 (5.07–5.54) | 9.36 (8.88–9.87) |
| Adjusted | 1.92 (1.81–2.04) | 3.10 (2.91–3.31) | 4.52 (4.16–4.91) | 1.86 (1.78–1.95) | 3.02 (2.88–3.16) | 4.50 (4.26–4.76) |
| 3 Year mortality HR (95% CI) | ||||||
| Unadjusted | 2.49 (2.41–2.57) | 5.20 (5.02–5.39) | 9.01 (8.60–9.45) | 2.34 (2.29–2.40) | 4.69 (4.58–4.82) | 8.35 (8.09–8.61) |
| Adjusted | 1.77 (1.71–1.83) | 2.78 (2.68–2.89) | 3.99 (3.79–4.20) | 1.73 (1.68–1.77) | 2.70 (2.63–2.77) | 4.06 (3.93–4.19) |
| 5 Year mortality HR (95% CI) | ||||||
| Unadjusted | 2.40 (2.34–2.46) | 4.88 (4.75–5.02) | 8.57 (8.25–8.91) | 2.23 (2.19–2.27) | 4.36 (4.28–4.45) | 7.75 (7.55–7.94) |
| Adjusted | 1.72 (1.68–1.77) | 2.64 (2.57–2.72) | 3.83 (3.68–3.99) | 1.66 (1.63–1.69) | 2.54 (2.49–2.60) | 3.84 (3.74–3.94) |
| 1 Year unplanned hospitalisation HR (95% CI) | ||||||
| Unadjusted | 2.08 (2.00–2.16) | 3.50 (3.35–3.66) | 5.73 (5.38–6.10) | 2.35 (2.28–2.43) | 4.65 (4.49–4.81) | 8.10 (7.77–8.45) |
| Adjusted | 1.93 (1.86–2.01) | 3.04 (2.90–3.19) | 4.73 (4.43–5.06) | 2.03 (1.96–2.10) | 3.50 (3.38–3.63) | 5.58 (5.34–5.84) |
| 3 Year unplanned hospitalisation HR (95% CI) | ||||||
| Unadjusted | 1.94 (1.90–1.98) | 3.10 (3.01–3.18) | 4.69 (4.50–4.90) | 2.20 (2.16–2.25) | 4.07 (3.98–4.16) | 6.89 (6.69–7.10) |
| Adjusted | 1.78 (1.74–1.82) | 2.63 (2.55–2.71) | 3.76 (3.60–3.94) | 1.89 (1.85–1.93) | 3.03 (2.96–3.11) | 4.66 (4.51–4.80) |
| 5 Year unplanned hospitalisation HR (95% CI) | ||||||
| Unadjusted | 1.87 (1.84–1.90) | 2.98 (2.91–3.04) | 4.36 (4.20–4.53) | |||
| Adjusted | 1.71 (1.68–1.74) | 2.50 (2.44–2.56) | 3.43 (3.31–3.58) | |||
| 1 Year nursing home admission HR (95% CI) | ||||||
| Unadjusted | 3.11 (2.69–3.59) | 7.85 (6.76–9.12) | 15.43 (12.84–18.56) | |||
| Adjusted | 1.89 (1.63–2.15) | 3.19 (2.73–3.73) | 4.76 (3.92–5.77) | |||
| 3 Year nursing home admission HR (95% CI) | ||||||
| Unadjusted | 2.75 (2.56–2.95) | 6.39 (5.92–6.90) | 11.62 (10.48–12.89) | |||
| Adjusted | 1.67 (1.56–1.80) | 2.60 (2.40–2.82) | 3.55 (3.19–3.96) | |||
| 5 Year nursing home admission HR (95% CI) | ||||||
| Unadjusted | 2.54 (2.42–2.67) | 5.44 (5.16–5.75) | 9.79 (9.06–10.58) | |||
| Adjusted | 1.59 (1.51–1.67) | 2.30 (2.18–2.44) | 3.12 (2.88–3.38) | |||
For all outcomes the comparator is fit older people. All data adjusted for age and sex.
HR, hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval.
NB: Hospitalisation outcome for external validation cohort includes only those practices (n = 158) with HES linked data.
Figure 1.Five-year Kaplan–Meier survival curve for the outcome of mortality for categories of fit, mild frailty, moderate frailty and severe frailty (internal validation cohort).
Figure 2.Relationship between age, electronic frailty index score and mortality (internal validation cohort).
c Statistic and pseudo-R2 estimates for the outcomes of mortality, unplanned hospitalisation, and nursing home admission
| Outcome | Internal validation cohort | External validation cohort | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Year | 3 Year | 5 Year | 1 Year | 3 Year | 5 Year | |||||||
| Mortality | 0.72 | 0.04 | 0.70 | 0.06 | 0.69 | 0.09 | 0.76 | 0.02 | 0.75 | 0.02 | 0.75 | 0.02 |
| Emergency hospitalisation | 0.66 | 0.03 | 0.64 | 0.05 | 0.63 | 0.06 | 0.71 | 0.02 | 0.69 | 0.02 | ||
| Nursing home admission | 0.74 | 0.04 | 0.72 | 0.04 | 0.70 | 0.04 | ||||||
| Activity limitation | Memory and cognitive problems |
| Anaemia and haematinic deficiency | Mobility and transfer problems |
| Arthritis | Osteoporosis |
| Atrial fibrillation | Parkinsonism and tremor |
| Cerebrovascular disease | Peptic ulcer |
| Chronic kidney disease | Peripheral vascular disease |
| Diabetes | Polypharmacy |
| Dizziness | Requirement for care |
| Dyspnoea | Respiratory disease |
| Falls | Skin ulcer |
| Foot problems | Sleep disturbance |
| Fragility fracture | Social vulnerability |
| Hearing impairment | Thyroid disease |
| Heart failure | Urinary incontinence |
| Heart valve disease | Urinary system disease |
| Housebound | Visual impairment |
| Hypertension | Weight loss and anorexia |
| Hypotension/syncope | |
| Ischaemic heart disease |