Yi Zhang1,2, David J Muscatello2, Zhidong Cao3, Abrar A Chughtai2, Valentina Costantino2, Daitao Zhang1, Peng Yang1, Quanyi Wang1, C Raina MacIntyre4,5. 1. Institute for Infectious Diseases and Endemic Diseases Control, Beijing Municipal Center for Disease Prevention and Control & Beijing Research Center for Preventive Medicine , Beijing, China. 2. School of Public Health and Community Medicine, The University of New South Wales , Sydney, Australia. 3. The State Key Laboratory of Management and Control for Complex Systems, Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences , Beijing, China. 4. Kirby Institute, Faculty of Medicine, The University of New South Wales , Sydney, Australia. 5. College of Public Service & Community Solutions and College of Health Solutions, Arizona State University , Phoenix, AZ, USA.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Children aged under 5 years are particularly vulnerable to influenza infection. In this study, we aim to estimate the number and incidence of influenza among young children and estimate the impact of childhood vaccination in different scenarios from 2013/14 to 2016/17 seasons. METHODS: The number and incidence rate of influenza infections among children aged under 5 years in Beijing was estimated by scaling up observed surveillance data. Then, we used a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovery (SEIR) model to reproduce the weekly number of influenza infections estimated in Beijing during the study seasons, and to estimate the number and proportion of influenza-attributed medically attended acute respiratory infections (I-MAARI) averted by vaccination in each season. Finally, we evaluated the impact of alternative childhood vaccination programs with different coverage and speed of vaccine distribution. RESULTS: The estimated average annual incidence of influenza in children aged under 5 years was 33.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 27.5%, 47.2%) during the study period. With the actual coverage during the included seasons at around 2.9%, an average of 3.9% (95%CI: 3.5%, 4.4%) I-MAARI was reduced compared to a no-vaccination scenario. Reaching 20%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 80% and 100% vaccine coverage would lead to an overall I-MAARI reduction of 25.3%, 42.7%, 51.9%, 57.0%, 65.3% and 71.2%. At 20% coverage scenario, an average of 28.8% I-MAARI will be prevented if intensive vaccination implemented in 2 months since the vaccine released. CONCLUSION: In Beijing, the introduction of a program for vaccinating young children, even at relatively low vaccine coverage rates, would considerably reduce I-MAARI, particularly if the vaccines can be quickly delivered.
BACKGROUND:Children aged under 5 years are particularly vulnerable to influenza infection. In this study, we aim to estimate the number and incidence of influenza among young children and estimate the impact of childhood vaccination in different scenarios from 2013/14 to 2016/17 seasons. METHODS: The number and incidence rate of influenza infections among children aged under 5 years in Beijing was estimated by scaling up observed surveillance data. Then, we used a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovery (SEIR) model to reproduce the weekly number of influenza infections estimated in Beijing during the study seasons, and to estimate the number and proportion of influenza-attributed medically attended acute respiratory infections (I-MAARI) averted by vaccination in each season. Finally, we evaluated the impact of alternative childhood vaccination programs with different coverage and speed of vaccine distribution. RESULTS: The estimated average annual incidence of influenza in children aged under 5 years was 33.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 27.5%, 47.2%) during the study period. With the actual coverage during the included seasons at around 2.9%, an average of 3.9% (95%CI: 3.5%, 4.4%) I-MAARI was reduced compared to a no-vaccination scenario. Reaching 20%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 80% and 100% vaccine coverage would lead to an overall I-MAARI reduction of 25.3%, 42.7%, 51.9%, 57.0%, 65.3% and 71.2%. At 20% coverage scenario, an average of 28.8% I-MAARI will be prevented if intensive vaccination implemented in 2 months since the vaccine released. CONCLUSION: In Beijing, the introduction of a program for vaccinating young children, even at relatively low vaccine coverage rates, would considerably reduce I-MAARI, particularly if the vaccines can be quickly delivered.
Authors: Jill M Ferdinands; Alicia M Fry; Sue Reynolds; Joshua Petrie; Brendan Flannery; Michael L Jackson; Edward A Belongia Journal: Clin Infect Dis Date: 2016-12-29 Impact factor: 9.079
Authors: Deborah Cromer; Albert Jan van Hoek; Mark Jit; W John Edmunds; Douglas Fleming; Elizabeth Miller Journal: J Infect Date: 2013-12-01 Impact factor: 6.072
Authors: S Wu; L VAN Asten; L Wang; S A McDonald; Y Pan; W Duan; L Zhang; Y Sun; Y Zhang; X Zhang; E Pilot; T Krafft; W VAN DER Hoek; M A B VAN DER Sande; P Yang; Q Wang Journal: Epidemiol Infect Date: 2017-11-09 Impact factor: 4.434