| Literature DB >> 35451054 |
Chao Wang1, Yan-Na Yang2, Lu Xi2, Li-Li Yang2, Juan Du1, Zhong-Song Zhang1, Xin-Yao Lian1, Yan Cui2, Hong-Jun Li2, Wan-Xue Zhang1, Bei Liu1, Fuqiang Cui1, Qing-Bin Lu1.
Abstract
Influenza-like illness (ILI) varies in intensity year by year, generally keeping a stable pattern except for great changes of its epidemic pattern. Of the most impacting factors, urbanization has been suggested as shaping the intensity of influenza epidemics. Besides, growing evidence indicates the nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 offer great advantages in controlling infectious diseases. The present study aimed to evaluate the impact of urbanization and NPIs on the dynamic of ILI in Tongzhou, Beijing, during January 2013 to March 2021. ILI epidemiological surveillance data in Tongzhou district were obtained from Beijing Influenza Surveillance Network and separated into three periods of urbanization and four intervals of coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. Standardized average incidence rates of ILI in each separate stages were calculated and compared by using Wilson method and time series model of seasonal ARIMA. Influenza seasonal outbreaks showed similar epidemic size and intensity before urbanization during 2013-2016. Increased ILI activity was found during the process of Tongzhou's urbanization during 2017-2019, with the rate difference of 2.48 (95% confidence interva [CI]: 2.44, 2.52) and the rate ratio of 1.75 (95% CI: 1.74, 1.76) of ILI incidence between preurbanization and urbanization periods. ILI activity abruptly decreased from the beginning of 2020 and kept at the bottom level almost in every epidemic interval. The top decrease in ILI activity by NPIs was shown in 5-14 years group in 2020-2021 influenza season, as 92.2% (95% CI: 78.3%, 95.2%). The results indicated that both urbanization and NPIs interrupted the epidemic pattern of ILI. We should pay more attention to public health when facing increasing population density, human contact, population mobility, and migration in the process of urbanization. NPIs and influenza vaccination should be implemented as necessary measures to protect people from common infectious diseases like ILI.Entities:
Keywords: COVID-19; China; influenza-like illness; nonpharmaceutical interventions; urbanization
Mesh:
Year: 2022 PMID: 35451054 PMCID: PMC9088387 DOI: 10.1002/jmv.27803
Source DB: PubMed Journal: J Med Virol ISSN: 0146-6615 Impact factor: 20.693
Population size and cumulative rate of influenza infection between six groups during 2013–2020 (per 100 person·years).
| Years | Total population | 0–4 years | 5–14 years | 15–24 years | 25–59 years | 60 years or above | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. | CRI | No. | CRI | No. | CRI | No. | CRI | No. | CRI | No. | CRI | |
| 2013 | 1 249 446 | 3.9 | 51 586 | 49.3 | 65 230 | 10.4 | 203 351 | 1.8 | 769 207 | 1.5 | 160 072 | 1.1 |
| 2014 | 1 277 827 | 2.9 | 52 758 | 16.0 | 66 710 | 7.1 | 207 970 | 2.7 | 786 673 | 1.8 | 163 716 | 2.3 |
| 2015 | 1 300 383 | 3.3 | 53 668 | 22.9 | 67 848 | 8.5 | 211 659 | 3.1 | 800 389 | 1.7 | 166 820 | 3.1 |
| 2016 | 1 378 000 | 3.1 | 56 476 | 15.6 | 71 406 | 9.7 | 221 762 | 3.1 | 838 775 | 1.7 | 189 581 | 3.1 |
| 2017 | 1 379 522 | 2.9 | 64 061 | 8.5 | 80 994 | 7.0 | 217 890 | 3.2 | 824 111 | 1.9 | 192 467 | 3.6 |
| 2018 | 1 507 999 | 2.9 | 71 863 | 9.5 | 90 854 | 5.4 | 235 371 | 3.3 | 890 168 | 2.0 | 219 743 | 3.2 |
| 2019 | 1 577 999 | 5.8 | 72 842 | 33.8 | 99 581 | 22.8 | 114 131 | 8.3 | 1 015 645 | 2.7 | 275 801 | 2.6 |
| 2020 | 1 644 502 | 2.2 | 72 029 | 12.5 | 108 265 | 5.7 | 99 397 | 3.9 | 1 071 831 | 1.3 | 292 981 | 1.1 |
Abbreviations: No., number of the total population within the current group; CRI, the cumulative rate of influenza infection during the current year (per 100 person·years).
Figure 1Activity of ILI among different age groups with population size during January 2013 to March 2021. (A) Activity of ILI among the total population during January 2013 to March 2021. (B) Activity of ILI among the population aged between 0 and 24 years during January 2013 to March 2021. (C) Activity of ILI among the population aged over 25 years during January 2013 to March 2021. ILI, influenza‐like illness.
Cumulative rate of ILI of different stages of urbanization in Tongzhou District from 2013 to 2019 (per 100 person·years).
| Age group | Cumulative rate (per 100 person·years) | Rate difference (per 100 person·years) | Rate ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total population | |||
| Preurbanization | 3.3 | Reference | Reference |
| Transition period | 2.9 | −0.39 (−0.41, −0.39) | 0.88 (0.87, 0.89) |
| Urbanization | 5.8 | 2.48 (2.44, 2.52) | 1.75 (1.74, 1.76) |
| Pandemic period | 2.1 | −1.23 (−1.25, −1.20) | 0.64 (0.63, 0.65) |
| 0–4 years old | |||
| Preurbanization | 25.6 | Ref. | Ref. |
| Transition period | 9.0 | −16.61 (−16.85, −16.37) | 0.35 (0.34, 0.36) |
| Urbanization | 33.8 | 8.17 (7.78, 8.56) | 1.32 (1.30, 1.34) |
| Pandemic period | 11.8 | −13.8 (−14.1, −13.6) | 0.46 (0.44, 0.48) |
| 5–14 years old | |||
| Preurbanization | 8.9 | Reference | Reference |
| Transition period | 6.1 | −2.8 (−2.95, −2.64) | 0.69 (0.67, 0.70) |
| Urbanization | 22.8 | 13.83 (13.55, 14.12) | 2.55 (2.51, 2.59) |
| Pandemic period | 5.6 | −3.3 (−3.5, −3.1) | 0.63 (0.61, 0.65) |
| 15–24 years old | |||
| Preurbanization | 2.7 | Reference | Reference |
| Transition period | 3.3 | 0.55 (0.49, 0.62) | 1.21 (1.18, 1.23) |
| Urbanization | 8.3 | 5.57 (5.41, 5.74) | 3.07 (3.00, 3.14) |
| Pandemic period | 3.7 | 1.02 (0.91, 1.13) | 1.37 (1.34, 1.40) |
| 25–59 years old | |||
| Preurbanization | 1.7 | Reference | Reference |
| Transition period | 1.9 | 0.25 (0.22, 0.27) | 1.15 (1.13, 1.16) |
| Urbanization | 2.7 | 1.03 (1.00, 1.07) | 1.61 (1.59, 1.64) |
| Pandemic period | 1.2 | −0.48 (−0.50, −0.45) | 0.71 (0.70, 0.72) |
| 60 years or above | |||
| Preurbanization | 2.5 | Reference | Reference |
| Transition period | 3.3 | 0.89 (0.83, 0.96) | 1.37 (1.34, 1.40) |
| Urbanization | 2.6 | 0.12 (0.05, 0.19) | 1.05 (1.02, 1.08) |
| Pandemic period | 1.1 | −1.37 (−1.42, −1.32) | 0.45 (0.43, 0.46) |
Note: Preurbanization stage refers to years between 2013 to the end of 2016. Transition period refers to years of 2017 and 2018. Urbanization stage targeted to 2019 since COVID‐19 pandemic initialed at the beginning of 2020.
Abbreviation: ILI, influenza‐like illness.
Impact of COVID‐19 and nonpharmaceutical interventions on the rates of ILI from 2020 to the end of influenza season in 2021.
| Time period | Total population (% decreased, 95% CI) | 0–4 years old (% decreased, 95% CI) | 5–14 years old (% decreased, 95% CI) | 15–24 years old (% decreased, 95% CI) | 25–59 years old (% decreased, 95% CI) | >60 years old (% decreased, 95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beginning of 2020 to the end of influenza season of 2021 | 76.2 (48.6, 84.5) | 85.7 (70.3, 90.6) | 86.6 (51.7, 92.2) | 71.9 (35.9, 82.0) | 64.8 (−2.2, 78.9) | 62.8 (−62.7, 80.0) |
| The second half of 2019–2020 influenza season | 53.4 (26.8, 65.8) | 70.3 (53.9, 78.1) | 74.3 (61.4, 80.8) | 54.3 (31.6, 65.6) | 31.2 (−28.8, 53.0) | 44.4 (−14.2, 63.5) |
| Noninfluenza Season in 2020 | 75.7 (−41.3, 86.9) | 88.0 (51.1, 93.2) | 88.9 (−76.3, 95.3) | 70.9 (−51.1, 83.9) | 62.5 (−99.7, 81.2) | 52.4 (−174.3, 79.8) |
| Influenza season of 2020–2021 | 87.0 (77.1, 90.9) | 90.7 (83.4, 93.5) | 92.2 (78.3, 95.2) | 82.1 (62.6, 88.2) | 81.9 (59.5, 88.4) | 78.4 (14.1, 87.6) |
Abbreviation: ILI, influenza‐like illness.
Figure 2The comparison of ILI activity between observed rates, average rate and forecasted rates of ILI within different age groups during January 2020 to March 2021. (A) Total population; (B) age group of 0–4 years; (C) age group of 5–14 years; (D) age group of 15–24 years; (E) age group of 25–59 years; (F) age group of ≥60 years. ILI, influenza‐like illness.
Figure 3The relationship between influenza vaccination coverages and ILI activities during the study period. (A) Age group of 5–14 years; (B) age group of ≥60 years. ILI, influenza‐like illness.