Literature DB >> 31411664

Novel Machine Learning Approach to Identify Preoperative Risk Factors Associated With Super-Utilization of Medicare Expenditure Following Surgery.

J Madison Hyer1, Aslam Ejaz1, Diamantis I Tsilimigras1, Anghela Z Paredes1, Rittal Mehta1, Timothy M Pawlik1,2.   

Abstract

Importance: Typically defined as the top 5% of health care users, super-utilizers are responsible for an estimated 40% to 55% of all health care costs. Little is known about which factors may be associated with increased risk of long-term postoperative super-utilization. Objective: To identify clusters of patients with distinct constellations of clinical and comorbid patterns who may be associated with an elevated risk of super-utilization in the year following elective surgery. Design, Setting, and Participants: A retrospective longitudinal cohort study of 1 049 160 patients who underwent abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, coronary artery bypass graft, colectomy, total hip arthroplasty, total knee arthroplasty, or lung resection were identified from the 100% Medicare inpatient and outpatient Standard Analytic Files at all inpatient facilities performing 1 or more of the evaluated surgical procedures from 2013 to 2015. Data from 2012 to 2016 were used to evaluate expenditures in the year preceding and following surgery. Using a machine learning approach known as Logic Forest, comorbidities and interactions of comorbidities that put patients at an increased chance of becoming a super-utilizer were identified. All comorbidities, as defined by the Charlson (range, 0-24) and Elixhauser (range, 0-29) comorbidity indices, were used in the analysis. Higher scores indicated higher comorbidity burden. Data analysis was completed on November 16, 2018. Main Outcome and Measures: Super-utilization of health care in the year following surgery.
Results: In total, 1 049 160 patients met inclusion criteria and were included in the analytic cohort. Their median (interquartile range) age was 73 (69-78) years, and approximately 40% were male. Super-utilizers comprised 4.8% of the overall cohort (n = 79 746) yet incurred 31.7% of the expenditures. Although the difference in overall expenditures per person between super-utilizers ($4049) and low users ($2148) was relatively modest prior to surgery, the difference in expenditures between super-utilizers ($79 698) vs low users ($2977) was marked in the year following surgery. Risk factors associated with super-utilization of health care included hemiplegia/paraplegia (odds ratio, 5.2; 95% CI, 4.4-6.2), weight loss (odds ratio, 3.5; 95% CI, 2.9-4.2), and congestive heart failure with chronic kidney disease stages I to IV (odds ratio, 3.4; 95% CI, 3.0-3.9). Conclusions and Relevance: Super-utilizers comprised only a small fraction of the surgical population yet were responsible for a disproportionate amount of Medicare expenditure. Certain subpopulations were associated with super-utilization of health care following surgical intervention despite having lower overall use in the preoperative period.

Entities:  

Mesh:

Year:  2019        PMID: 31411664      PMCID: PMC6694398          DOI: 10.1001/jamasurg.2019.2979

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  JAMA Surg        ISSN: 2168-6254            Impact factor:   14.766


  8 in total

1.  Association of Depression with In-Patient and Post-Discharge Disposition and Expenditures Among Medicare Beneficiaries Undergoing Resection for Cancer.

Authors:  Alessandro Paro; J Madison Hyer; Timothy Pawlik
Journal:  Ann Surg Oncol       Date:  2021-03-21       Impact factor: 5.344

Review 2.  Machine learning in gastrointestinal surgery.

Authors:  Takashi Sakamoto; Tadahiro Goto; Michimasa Fujiogi; Alan Kawarai Lefor
Journal:  Surg Today       Date:  2021-09-24       Impact factor: 2.549

3.  Surgeon experience influences patient characteristics and outcomes in spine deformity surgery.

Authors:  Alexander J Schupper; Sean N Neifert; Michael L Martini; Jonathan S Gal; Frank J Yuk; John M Caridi
Journal:  Spine Deform       Date:  2020-10-26

4.  Artificial Learning and Machine Learning Decision Guidance Applications in Total Hip and Knee Arthroplasty: A Systematic Review.

Authors:  Cesar D Lopez; Anastasia Gazgalis; Venkat Boddapati; Roshan P Shah; H John Cooper; Jeffrey A Geller
Journal:  Arthroplast Today       Date:  2021-09-03

5.  Artificial intelligence in orthopaedics: A scoping review.

Authors:  Simon J Federer; Gareth G Jones
Journal:  PLoS One       Date:  2021-11-23       Impact factor: 3.240

Review 6.  Machine learning in knee arthroplasty: specific data are key-a systematic review.

Authors:  Florian Hinterwimmer; Igor Lazic; Christian Suren; Michael T Hirschmann; Florian Pohlig; Daniel Rueckert; Rainer Burgkart; Rüdiger von Eisenhart-Rothe
Journal:  Knee Surg Sports Traumatol Arthrosc       Date:  2022-01-10       Impact factor: 4.114

7.  Potential benefits, unintended consequences, and future roles of artificial intelligence in orthopaedic surgery research : a call to emphasize data quality and indications.

Authors:  Kyle N Kunze; Melissa Orr; Viktor Krebs; Mohit Bhandari; Nicolas S Piuzzi
Journal:  Bone Jt Open       Date:  2022-01

Review 8.  Patient generated health data and electronic health record integration in oncologic surgery: A call for artificial intelligence and machine learning.

Authors:  Laleh G Melstrom; Andrei S Rodin; Lorenzo A Rossi; Paul Fu; Yuman Fong; Virginia Sun
Journal:  J Surg Oncol       Date:  2020-09-24       Impact factor: 3.454

  8 in total

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