Literature DB >> 31341974

Estimating survival in patients with gastrointestinal cancers and brain metastases: An update of the graded prognostic assessment for gastrointestinal cancers (GI-GPA).

Paul W Sperduto1, Penny Fang2, Jing Li2, William Breen3, Paul D Brown3, Daniel Cagney4, Ayal Aizer4, James B Yu5, Veronica Chiang5, Supriya Jain6, Laurie E Gaspar6, Sten Myrehaug7, Arjun Sahgal7, Steve Braunstein8, Penny Sneed8, Brent Cameron9, Albert Attia9, Jason Molitoris10, Cheng-Chia Wu11, Tony J C Wang11, Natalie A Lockney12, Kathryn Beal12, Jessica Parkhurst13, John M Buatti13, Ryan Shanley14, Emil Lou14, Daniel D Tandberg15, John P Kirkpatrick15, Diana Shi16, Helen A Shih16, Michael Chuong17, Hirotake Saito18, Hidefumi Aoyama18, Laura Masucci19, David Roberge19, Minesh P Mehta17.   

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Patients with gastrointestinal cancers and brain metastases (BM) represent a unique and heterogeneous population. Our group previously published the Diagnosis-Specific Graded Prognostic Assessment (DS-GPA) for patients with GI cancers (GI-GPA) (1985-2007, n = 209). The purpose of this study is to update the GI-GPA based on a larger contemporary database.
METHODS: An IRB-approved consortium database analysis was performed using a multi-institutional (18), multi-national (3) cohort of 792 patients with gastrointestinal (GI) cancers, with newly-diagnosed BM diagnosed between 1/1/2006 and 12/31/2017. Survival was measured from date of first treatment for BM. Multiple Cox regression was used to select and weight prognostic factors in proportion to their hazard ratios. These factors were incorporated into the updated GI-GPA.
RESULTS: Median survival (MS) varied widely by primary site and other prognostic factors. Four significant factors (KPS, age, extracranial metastases and number of BM) were used to formulate the updated GI-GPA. Overall MS for this cohort remains poor; 8 months. MS by GPA was 3, 7, 11 and 17 months for GPA 0-1, 1.5-2, 2.5-3.0 and 3.5-4.0, respectively. >30% present in the worst prognostic group (GI-GPA of ≤1.0).
CONCLUSIONS: Brain metastases are not uncommon in GI cancer patients and MS varies widely among them. This updated GI-GPA index improves our ability to estimate survival for these patients and will be useful for therapy selection, end-of-life decision-making and stratification for future clinical trials. A user-friendly, free, on-line app to calculate the GPA score and estimate survival for an individual patient is available at brainmetgpa.com.

Entities:  

Keywords:  Brain metastases; End-of-life; Gastrointestinal cancers; Prognosis

Year:  2019        PMID: 31341974      PMCID: PMC6612649          DOI: 10.1016/j.ctro.2019.06.007

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  Clin Transl Radiat Oncol        ISSN: 2405-6308


Introduction

In 2018, there were an estimated 320,000 invasive gastrointestinal (GI) cancers diagnosed, with >160,000 attributable deaths [1]. An estimated 300,000 patients develop brain metastases (BM) every year [2]. The cancers most likely to cause BM are lung, breast, melanoma and renal cell carcinoma. GI cancers cause approximately 6% of all BM, and because of this relative “rarity”, few robust reports have been published [3]. A computerized search of the medical literature revealed extremely limited published data regarding the overall survival, or prognostic variables for this patient population [4], [5]. Patients with brain metastases are markedly heterogenous and it is well-known that outcomes vary widely by diagnosis and diagnosis-specific prognostic factors [6]. Our group has published a series of articles defining and updating a prognostic index, the Graded Prognostic Assessment (GPA) for patients with various primary diagnoses (lung, breast, melanoma, renal cell and GI cancers) and BM. Our original GI-GPA was based on 209 GI cancer patients with BM diagnosed from 1985 to 2005 [7], [8], [9], [10], [11]. We recently published a study of how prognostic factors have changed in this patient population in a larger contemporary cohort [12]. The purpose of this study is to update the GI-GPA prognostic index with these newly identified prognostic factors.

Methods

Investigators from a multi-national [3] multi-institutional (18) consortium created an IRB-approved retrospective database of 845 patients with gastrointestinal cancers and newly-diagnosed BM between January 1, 2006 and December 31, 2017 using the Research Electronic Data Capture (REDCap) interactive software. After exclusions for incomplete data, 792 remained eligible for analysis. Multiple Cox regression was used to initially select and weight variables to be included in the new GI-GPA. The initial variables included in the model were KPS, age, presence of extracranial metastases, number of brain metastases, gender, stage, primary GI site, HER2 status and hemoglobin. Multiple imputation using predictive mean matching [13] was used to impute missing values, so that the full sample could be used to estimate model parameters. Both effect magnitude (hazard ratio) and statistical significance were used to select variables. Weighting options were evaluated using metrics including the concordance index and R-squared, using 200 bootstrap replications to estimate out-of-sample performance. The final GPA was chosen as a balance of performance metrics and simplicity. Kaplan-Meier survival estimates were calculated for the new GPA categories. Analysis was performed using R software [14], [15].

Results

The patient characteristics are shown in Table 1. Noteworthy observations include: 1) 83% (575/693) presented with stage III or IV disease; 2) 81% (622/772) had extracranial metastases (ECM) and 42% (322/772) had liver metastases at the time of diagnosis of the BM; 3) In this cohort, the most common primary sites were: rectum (24%), esophagus (23%), right colon (13%), rectosigmoid (11%) and GE junction (9%); 4) HER2 was reported in 148/274 (54%) and was present in 59/148 (40%) of patients with gastric, esophageal and gastro-esophageal cancers. In HER2-positive patients, 63% received Trastuzumab; 5) the time from primary diagnosis to brain metastases (TPDBM) was longer in patients with lung metastases (p < 0.01), females (p < 0.001), colorectal cancers (p < 0.001) and early stage (I-II) disease (p < 0.001).
Table 1

Patient Characteristics, Survival and Time from Primary Diagnosis to Brain Metastases.

VariableCategoryN (%)Median Survival (IQR)PTPDBM (IQR)P
Overall792 (100)8 (3, 18).23 (9, 51).
Original GI-GPA<0.0010.751
0–1267 (34)4 (2, 12).24 (7, 48).
1.5–2207 (26)7 (3, 18).24 (10, 53).
2.5–3187 (24)12 (6, 21).21 (10, 45).
3.5–455 (7)16 (7, 26).23 (11, 61).
Not Reported76 (10)10 (4, 19).21 (9, 47).



KPS<0.0010.866
<70113 (14)3 (1, 8).28 (7, 54).
70154 (19)6 (3, 13).23 (8, 48).
80207 (26)7 (3, 18).24 (10, 53).
90187 (24)12 (6, 21).21 (10, 45).
10055 (7)16 (7, 26).23 (11, 61).
Not Reported76 (10)10 (4, 19).21 (9, 47).



Number BM<0.0010.610
1379 (48)10 (4, 22).23 (10, 47).
2–3237 (30)8 (3, 17).26 (10, 56).
> 3159 (20)3 (2, 11).23 (8, 49).
Not Reported17 (2)12 (8, 18).12 (0, 42).



Extracranial Mets<0.001<0.001
Absent150 (19)14 (6, 26).13 (5, 21).
Present622 (79)7 (3, 15).29 (10, 58).
Not Reported20 (3)9 (3, 18).14 (8, 41).



ECM Liver<0.0010.870
Absent450 (57)10 (3, 19).22 (10, 52).
Present322 (41)6 (2, 15).25 (8, 51).
Not Reported20 (3)9 (3, 18).14 (8, 41).



ECM Bone<0.0010.041
Absent604 (76)9 (3, 18).22 (9, 46).
Present168 (21)5 (2, 14).30 (9, 60).
Not Reported20 (3)9 (3, 18).14 (8, 41).



ECM Lung0.004<0.001
Absent335 (42)9 (3, 20).13 (5, 28).
Present437 (55)7 (3, 16).37 (16, 62).
Not Reported20 (3)9 (3, 18).14 (8, 41).



ECM Other<0.0010.499
Absent542 (68)9 (4, 20).24 (10, 51).
Present230 (29)5 (2, 14).22 (8, 52).
Not Reported20 (3)9 (3, 18).14 (8, 41).



Age0.0020.150
25–52195 (25)10 (4, 20).26 (12, 46).
53–61186 (23)9 (3, 18).24 (9, 57).
62–68214 (27)7 (3, 19).19 (7, 40).
69–92197 (25)5 (2, 13).25 (9, 59).



Sex0.576<0.001
Male500 (63)8 (3, 18).20 (8, 46).
Female287 (36)7 (3, 16).31 (12, 57).
Not Reported5 (1)9 (8, 12).24 (8, 62).



Race0.4810.940
Asian45 (6)7 (2, 14).23 (9, 55).
African American37 (5)7 (3, 18).23 (16, 38).
White635 (80)8 (3, 18).23 (9, 52).
Unknown/Not Reported75 (9)7 (3, 18).25 (5, 44).



Ethnicity0.6110.956
Not Hispanic or Latino658 (83)9 (3, 18).23 (9, 51).
Hispanic or Latino62 (8)7 (3, 14).24 (9, 56).
Unknown/Not Reported72 (9)5 (2, 12).26 (10, 46).



Primary Tumor Site0.009<0.001
Esophagus181 (23)10 (3, 21).12 (6, 22).
GE junction73 (9)7 (2, 18).10 (4, 20).
Stomach20 (3)2 (1, 6).14 (7, 23).
Small Intestine (ie jejunum, d27 (3)8 (2, 14).17 (2, 53).
Colon-Right100 (13)7 (3, 20).31 (12, 57).
Colon-Transverse15 (2)3 (2, 5).36 (23, 57).
Colon-Left35 (4)10 (4, 14).41 (22, 70).
Rectosigmoid90 (11)10 (4, 20).41 (24, 67).
Rectum189 (24)7 (3, 17).42 (17, 66).
Anus6 (1)14 (5, 15).35 (21, 46).
Gallbladder16 (2)5 (1, 17).13 (2, 27).
Pancreas – adenocarcinoma30 (4)4 (3, 14).18 (1, 45).
Not Reported10 (1)15 (12, 23).66 (29, 87).



Surgical Resection of Primary Tumor0.004<0.001
0 = No276 (35)6 (2, 15).10 (1, 20).
1 = Yes447 (56)9 (3, 18).40 (20, 65).
Unknown69 (9)10 (4, 23).20 (3, 34).



Stage0.026<0.001
1 = I28 (4)8 (3, 17).65 (28, 102).
2 = II90 (11)11 (3, 26).47 (23, 70).
3 = III245 (31)9 (3, 18).34 (16, 60).
4 = IV330 (42)6 (2, 16).12 (2, 28).
Unknown99 (13)9 (3, 18).29 (9, 63).



*HER20.0660.570
0 = Absent89 (32)6 (2, 16).12 (7, 22).
1 = Present59 (22)13 (6, 23).10 (4, 21).
Not Reported126 (46)7 (2, 18).12 (5, 22).



*KRAS0.1110.047
0 = Absent111 (26)6 (3, 14).45 (23, 72).
1 = Present130 (30)10 (4, 19).36 (16, 61).
Not Reported188 (44)7 (3, 16).36 (15, 59).



*KRAS Exon0.3690.785
1 = G12D27 (20)8 (4, 18).29 (17, 61).
2 = G12V11 (8)7 (4, 15).48 (33, 68).
3 = G13D24 (18)9 (3, 20).50 (11, 77).
9 = Other32 (24)14 (6, 26).36 (12, 72).
Unknown39 (29)10 (3, 19).37 (15, 56).



*BRAF0.9170.938
0 = Absent130 (30)9 (4, 17).44 (21, 65).
1 = Present13 (3)12 (2, 19).49 (17, 68).
Not Reported286 (67)7 (3, 17).36 (16, 62).



EGFR0.1180.608
0 = Absent166 (21)10 (4, 19).33 (14, 57).
1 = Present16 (2)5 (2, 14).44 (13, 61).
Not Reported610 (77)7 (3, 18).21 (8, 46).



PIK3CA/P13K0.3980.377
0 = Absent92 (12)9 (3, 18).45 (21, 70).
1 = Present15 (2)14 (6, 21).28 (16, 59).
Not Reported685 (86)7 (3, 18).21 (8, 46).



*Hx of Crohns0.3150.513
0 = No353 (82)7 (3, 17).39 (19, 66).
1 = Yes2 (0)6 (1, 11).28 (24, 31).
Unknown74 (17)10 (4, 20).37 (19, 57).



*Hx of Ulcerative Col0.5140.192
0 = No350 (82)7 (3, 16).39 (19, 65).
1 = Yes5 (1)4 (4, 20).89 (37, 91).
Unknown74 (17)10 (4, 20).37 (19, 57).



Microsatellite status0.3800.803
0 = Unstable8 (1)14 (6, 25).24 (16, 56).
1 = Stable97 (12)8 (3, 19).30 (9, 58).
Unknown687 (87)8 (3, 17).23 (9, 49).



Hemoglobin<0.0010.473
[5, 11)121 (15)3 (1, 6).27 (9, 58).
[11, 12.5)123 (16)6 (2, 18).26 (12, 53).
[12.5, 14.1)122 (15)7 (3, 19).23 (10, 47).
[14.1, 164]124 (16)11 (5, 19).21 (7, 51).
Not Reported302 (38)12 (4, 21).21 (8, 47).



Neutrophil-to-lymphoc0.5690.498
[0.07, 3.30)76 (10)6 (3, 16).19 (11, 35).
[3.30, 6.86)80 (10)4 (3, 12).21 (5, 43).
[6.86, 12.50)76 (10)5 (2, 12).23 (10, 56).
[12.50, 112]78 (10)4 (1, 18).22 (8, 61).
Not Reported482 (61)10 (4, 19).24 (10, 52).



LDH0.1700.939
[1, 196)36 (5)7 (3, 18).22 (10, 51).
[196, 347)33 (4)4 (3, 9).25 (11, 60).
[347, 517)33 (4)7 (3, 18).17 (13, 40).
[517, 4369]33 (4)5 (2, 14).25 (5, 60).
Not Reported657 (83)9 (3, 18).24 (9, 49).



BMI0.3960.044
[11.8, 22.1)82 (10)4 (2, 17).23 (15, 54).
[22.1, 26.0)86 (11)6 (3, 16).17 (6, 38).
[26.0, 30.1)87 (11)7 (3, 22).17 (6, 44).
[30.1, 80.8]86 (11)9 (3, 14).22 (10, 41).
Not Reported451 (57)10 (3, 18).27 (10, 56).

Only applies to a subset of primary tumor types. PT: Primary Tumor. Median survival is in months from start of BM treatment (Kaplan-Meier estimate). IQR = Interquartile Range. TPDBM = time from primary diagnosis to start of BM treatment, in months. Variables were measured at time of BM diagnosis. P-values are from log-rank (survival) or Kruskal-Wallis (TPDBM) test of equivalence among categories, excluding unknown/not reported.

Patient Characteristics, Survival and Time from Primary Diagnosis to Brain Metastases. Only applies to a subset of primary tumor types. PT: Primary Tumor. Median survival is in months from start of BM treatment (Kaplan-Meier estimate). IQR = Interquartile Range. TPDBM = time from primary diagnosis to start of BM treatment, in months. Variables were measured at time of BM diagnosis. P-values are from log-rank (survival) or Kruskal-Wallis (TPDBM) test of equivalence among categories, excluding unknown/not reported.

Treatment

Table 2 shows a comparison of survival by treatment for the current cohort and our prior cohort [6], [7]. Notably, treatment patterns have changed from the prior cohort (1989–2007, n = 209) to the current cohort (2006–2017, n = 792). The use of whole brain radiation therapy (WBRT) alone has decreased from 45% to 21% and the use of stereotactic radiosurgery alone has increased from 17% to 39%. Detailed data on systemic therapy before and after the diagnosis of brain metastases was of interest but was not available in this retrospective study.
Table 2

Survival by Treatment and Treatment Era.

OverallWBRTSRSWBRT+SRSS+SRSS+WBRTS+WBRT+SRS
Historical Cohort
 N (%)20995 (45%)35 (17%)35 (17%)2 (1%)34 (16%)8 (4%)
 Mean GPA2.01.82.42.13.52.41.8
 Median Survival53779108
 Risk of Death (HR)1.00.720.692.300.330.39
 95% CI0.40, 1.280.39, 1.220.43, 12.40.19, 0.560.17, 0.90
 P-value0.260.210.33<0.010.03



Current Study
 N (%)792166 (21%)309 (39%)31 (4%)121 (15%)67 (8%)5 (1%)
 Mean GPA2.01.72.12.02.12.11.6
 Median Survival8361211144
 Risk of Death (HR)1.00.870.670.450.490.70
 95% CI0.69, 1.100.43, 1.040.33, 0.600.35, 0.680.24, 2.07
 P-value0.250.08<0.01<0.010.52

Abbreviations: WBRT: whole brain radiation therapy; SRS: stereotactic radiosurgery; S: surgery (craniotomy).

Hazard ratio (HR), 95% CI, and p (each treatment vs. WBRT alone within each cohort) adjusted for GPA. Median survival is unadjusted, in months. 11 patients in the current study did not have an initial treatment reported. 70 had surgery alone and 12 had fractionated partial brain radiation alone.

Survival by Treatment and Treatment Era. Abbreviations: WBRT: whole brain radiation therapy; SRS: stereotactic radiosurgery; S: surgery (craniotomy). Hazard ratio (HR), 95% CI, and p (each treatment vs. WBRT alone within each cohort) adjusted for GPA. Median survival is unadjusted, in months. 11 patients in the current study did not have an initial treatment reported. 70 had surgery alone and 12 had fractionated partial brain radiation alone.

Multivariable model

The multivariable model used to select and weight factors for the GI-GPA is shown in Table 3. Although 6 factors [Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS), age, extracranial metastases (ECM), number of BM, hemoglobin and primary GI site] were found to be significant, the predictive model was not further enhanced by adding hemoglobin or primary GI site to the index, and therefore, a simplified 4-factor model was generated.
Table 3

Hazard Ratio Results of Multi-Variable Analyses of Significant Prognostic Factors.

ParameterCategoriesN (%)HR (95% CI)
KPS90–100242 (31)1.0 (Ref)
80207 (26)1.6 (1.3, 2.0)
<80267 (34)2.1 (1.6, 2.7)



Age<60340 (43)1.0 (Ref)
≥60452 (57)1.3 (1.1, 1.6)



ECMAbsent150 (19)1.0 (Ref)
Present622 (79)1.8 (1.4, 2.2)



# BM1379 (48)1.0 (Ref)
2–3237 (30)1.4 (1.1, 1.7)
>3159 (20)1.9 (1.6, 2.4)

Note: Two other factors (hemoglobin and primary GI site) were significant but incorporating those factors did not improve the model so were excluded for simplicity.

Hazard Ratio Results of Multi-Variable Analyses of Significant Prognostic Factors. Note: Two other factors (hemoglobin and primary GI site) were significant but incorporating those factors did not improve the model so were excluded for simplicity.

Updated GI-GPA

Table 4 shows the definition of the updated GI-GPA and a scoring worksheet to calculate the GI-GPA for any individual patient. To compare predictive discrimination of the revised and original GI GPAs, we calculated the concordance probability (c-index) of two randomly chosen observations. If the patient predicted to live longer by the GPA actually did live longer, that pair is considered concordant. Since we have four GPA classes, about 32% of randomly chosen pairs will have the same predicted survival, thus our theoretical maximum achievable c-index is approximately 0.84. The c-index for the original GI-GPA was 0.610, which improved to 0.633 using the revised GPA.
Table 4

Definition of the Updated Prognostic Index, the Graded Prognostic Assessment for Patients with Gastrointestinal Cancers and Brain Metastases (GI-GPA) and Scoring Worksheet to Estimate Survival.

Prognostic FactorGI-GPA Scoring Criteria
Patient Score
00.51.01.52.0
KPS<80n/a80n/a90–100
Age≥60<60n/an/an/a
ECMPresentAbsentn/an/an/a
# of BM>32–31n/an/a
Sum Total

Median Survival by GI-GPA Group: 0–1.0, 1.5–2.0, 2.5–3.0, 3.5–4.0 was 3, 9, 12 and 17 months, respectively. Abbreviations: KPS, Karnofsky Performance Score; ECM, extracranial metastases; # of BM, number of brain metastases; n/a, not applicable.

Definition of the Updated Prognostic Index, the Graded Prognostic Assessment for Patients with Gastrointestinal Cancers and Brain Metastases (GI-GPA) and Scoring Worksheet to Estimate Survival. Median Survival by GI-GPA Group: 0–1.0, 1.5–2.0, 2.5–3.0, 3.5–4.0 was 3, 9, 12 and 17 months, respectively. Abbreviations: KPS, Karnofsky Performance Score; ECM, extracranial metastases; # of BM, number of brain metastases; n/a, not applicable. Fig. 1 shows a Kaplan-Meier curve for survival by GI-GPA group showing clear separation between adjacent classes (p < 0.001). The overall MS for this cohort was 8 months. MS by GPA group (0–1.0, 1.5–2.0, 2.5–3.0 and 3.5–4.0) was 3, 7, 11 and 17 months, respectively (p < 0.001). MS (mo) by primary site were: anus (14 mo), left colon (10 mo), rectosigmoid (10 mo), esophagus (10 mo), small bowel (8 mo), right colon (7 mo), rectum (7 mo), GE junction (7 mo), gallbladder (5 mo), pancreas (4 mo), transverse colon (3 mo) and stomach (2 mo). Table 3 shows a comparison of survival by treatment and treatment era. Notably, use of WBRT decreased from 82% in the prior cohort to 34% in the contemporary era.
Fig. 1

Kaplan-Meier Curve for Survival by GI-GPA Group.

Kaplan-Meier Curve for Survival by GI-GPA Group.

Discussion

Brain metastases in patients with GI cancers are not uncommon. Survival varies widely within this cohort based on the prognostic factors presented in this report. In contrast to the prior cohort in which only KPS status was prognostic, this study identifies multiple new prognostic factors and incorporates them into an updated user-friendly prognostic index, the Graded Prognostic Assessment for gastrointestinal cancer patients with brain metastases (GI-GPA). Patients with GI cancers and brain metastases also represent a unique patient population because they have a worse prognosis than any other primary diagnosis except small cell lung cancer. Our findings are consistent with prior reports [3], [4], [5], [6] that performance status and number of metastases are important prognostic factors but further refine our ability to predict survival for these patients with the identification of additional factors. Other smaller studies [3], [4], [5] have reported that brain metastases in GI cancer patients occur late in the course of disease. Interestingly, the average time from primary diagnosis of a GI cancer to BM (TPDBM) is 23 months [12] which is longer than that of lung cancer (16 mo) and renal cell carcinoma (19 mo) but shorter than the TPDBM for melanoma (32 mo) and breast cancer (38 mo). However, MS of a GI cancer patient after the diagnosis of BM (8mo) is far worse than any other diagnoses listed above. (lung non-adenocarcinoma 9 mo, lung adenocarcinoma 15 mo, breast 14 mo, melanoma 10 mo, renal cell 12 mo) [6], [7], [8], [9], [10], [11]. Certainly the proclivity of GI cancers to not just extracranial sites (80%) but particularly the liver (42%) is a likely explanation for the worse prognosis. Given the fact that 83% of patients in this study presented with stage III or IV disease, physicians should be aware that such patients are at high risk for developing BM, and although a role for routine screening has not been established, any CNS symptoms deserve scrutiny. Her2-positivity may become a prognostic factor in the future as more and more patients are being tested in the current era. In this study, HER2-positivity showed a trend (p = 0.066) toward improved survival in patients with gastric, esophageal and gastroesophageal cancers. For patients with poor prognosis (GI-GPA ≤ 1.0), discussion of supportive care or hospice, as established by the QUARTZ trial for NSCLC BM patients [16] might be reasonable. Physicians should have frank conversations with their patients and their families regarding expected survival, quality-of-life, and end-of-life care.

Limitations

Limitations of this study include the retrospective nature of the database and the selection bias inherent in all retrospective studies. Accordingly, one cannot conclude one treatment is better than another (Table 2) based on these data. Secondly, although the sample size is large, the molecular profile was not frequently reported. Thirdly, detailed data on use of chemotherapy and immunotherapy before and after the diagnosis of brain metastases are lacking in these data. Fourthly, we grouped all primary GI sites in this analysis but each primary GI site may behave differently as suggested by the HER2 data discussed above.

Conclusions

Contrary to conventional wisdom, brain metastases are not uncommon in patients with GI cancers. Furthermore, median survival within this cohort varies widely (from 3 to 17 months) based on multiple recently identified prognostic factors. Compared to other diagnoses, patients with GI cancers and BM are a unique population associated with poor prognosis overall. The updated GI-GPA prognostic index improves our ability to estimate survival for these patients and will be useful for end-of-life decision-making and stratification for future clinical trials. In order to simplify calculation of individual patient’s GPA, a free, user-friendly app, which can be easily downloaded to a smart phone or clinic computer is available at brainmetgpa.com.

Declaration of Competing Interest

None of the authors have a conflict of interest related to this work. The following authors have no relationships to report: PWS, PF, JL, WB, PDB, DC, JBY, VC, SJ, LEG, SM, SB, PS, BC, A Attia, JKM, CCW, JP, JMB, RS, DDT, DS, MC, HS, HA, LM. The following authors have relationships to report, but again none are related to this work: A Aizer (Astra Zeneca), AS (Elekta, Varian, Accuray), TJCW (Merck, Astra-Zeneca, Doximity, Novocure, Elekta, Wolters Kluwer), EL (Novocure, Nomocan Pharmaceuticals), JPK (Varian), HAS (Genentech), DR (Varian, Siemens, Accuray, BrainLab, Elekta, Pfizer, EMD Serono), MPM (Agenus, Insys, Remedy, IBA, Varian, Oncoceutics, Astra-Zeneca, Monteris.
  11 in total

1.  Effect of tumor subtype on survival and the graded prognostic assessment for patients with breast cancer and brain metastases.

Authors:  Paul W Sperduto; Norbert Kased; David Roberge; Zhiyuan Xu; Ryan Shanley; Xianghua Luo; Penny K Sneed; Samuel T Chao; Robert J Weil; John Suh; Amit Bhatt; Ashley W Jensen; Paul D Brown; Helen A Shih; John Kirkpatrick; Laurie E Gaspar; John B Fiveash; Veronica Chiang; Jonathan P S Knisely; Christina Maria Sperduto; Nancy Lin; Minesh Mehta
Journal:  Int J Radiat Oncol Biol Phys       Date:  2011-04-15       Impact factor: 7.038

2.  Summary report on the graded prognostic assessment: an accurate and facile diagnosis-specific tool to estimate survival for patients with brain metastases.

Authors:  Paul W Sperduto; Norbert Kased; David Roberge; Zhiyuan Xu; Ryan Shanley; Xianghua Luo; Penny K Sneed; Samuel T Chao; Robert J Weil; John Suh; Amit Bhatt; Ashley W Jensen; Paul D Brown; Helen A Shih; John Kirkpatrick; Laurie E Gaspar; John B Fiveash; Veronica Chiang; Jonathan P S Knisely; Christina Maria Sperduto; Nancy Lin; Minesh Mehta
Journal:  J Clin Oncol       Date:  2011-12-27       Impact factor: 44.544

3.  Estimating survival for renal cell carcinoma patients with brain metastases: an update of the Renal Graded Prognostic Assessment tool.

Authors:  Paul W Sperduto; Brian J Deegan; Jing Li; Krishan R Jethwa; Paul D Brown; Natalie Lockney; Kathryn Beal; Nitesh G Rana; Albert Attia; Chia-Lin Tseng; Arjun Sahgal; Ryan Shanley; William A Sperduto; Emil Lou; Amir Zahra; John M Buatti; James B Yu; Veronica Chiang; Jason K Molitoris; Laura Masucci; David Roberge; Diana D Shi; Helen A Shih; Adam Olson; John P Kirkpatrick; Steve Braunstein; Penny Sneed; Minesh P Mehta
Journal:  Neuro Oncol       Date:  2018-11-12       Impact factor: 12.300

Review 4.  Brain metastases: epidemiology and pathophysiology.

Authors:  Igor T Gavrilovic; Jerome B Posner
Journal:  J Neurooncol       Date:  2005-10       Impact factor: 4.130

5.  Estimating Survival in Melanoma Patients With Brain Metastases: An Update of the Graded Prognostic Assessment for Melanoma Using Molecular Markers (Melanoma-molGPA).

Authors:  Paul W Sperduto; Wen Jiang; Paul D Brown; Steve Braunstein; Penny Sneed; Daniel A Wattson; Helen A Shih; Ananta Bangdiwala; Ryan Shanley; Natalie A Lockney; Kathryn Beal; Emil Lou; Thomas Amatruda; William A Sperduto; John P Kirkpatrick; Norman Yeh; Laurie E Gaspar; Jason K Molitoris; Laura Masucci; David Roberge; James Yu; Veronica Chiang; Minesh Mehta
Journal:  Int J Radiat Oncol Biol Phys       Date:  2017-11-15       Impact factor: 7.038

6.  Patients with brain metastases from gastrointestinal tract cancer treated with whole brain radiation therapy: prognostic factors and survival.

Authors:  Susanne Bartelt; Felix Momm; Christian Weissenberger; Johannes Lutterbach
Journal:  World J Gastroenterol       Date:  2004-11-15       Impact factor: 5.742

7.  Diagnosis-specific prognostic factors, indexes, and treatment outcomes for patients with newly diagnosed brain metastases: a multi-institutional analysis of 4,259 patients.

Authors:  Paul W Sperduto; Samuel T Chao; Penny K Sneed; Xianghua Luo; John Suh; David Roberge; Amit Bhatt; Ashley W Jensen; Paul D Brown; Helen Shih; John Kirkpatrick; Amanda Schwer; Laurie E Gaspar; John B Fiveash; Veronica Chiang; Jonathan Knisely; Christina Maria Sperduto; Minesh Mehta
Journal:  Int J Radiat Oncol Biol Phys       Date:  2009-11-26       Impact factor: 7.038

Review 8.  Brain metastasis from gastrointestinal cancers: a systematic review.

Authors:  M Esmaeilzadeh; A Majlesara; A Faridar; M Hafezi; B Hong; H Esmaeilnia-Shirvani; B Neyazi; A Mehrabi; M Nakamura
Journal:  Int J Clin Pract       Date:  2014-03-25       Impact factor: 2.503

9.  Estimating Survival in Patients With Lung Cancer and Brain Metastases: An Update of the Graded Prognostic Assessment for Lung Cancer Using Molecular Markers (Lung-molGPA).

Authors:  Paul W Sperduto; T Jonathan Yang; Kathryn Beal; Hubert Pan; Paul D Brown; Ananta Bangdiwala; Ryan Shanley; Norman Yeh; Laurie E Gaspar; Steve Braunstein; Penny Sneed; John Boyle; John P Kirkpatrick; Kimberley S Mak; Helen A Shih; Alex Engelman; David Roberge; Nils D Arvold; Brian Alexander; Mark M Awad; Joseph Contessa; Veronica Chiang; John Hardie; Daniel Ma; Emil Lou; William Sperduto; Minesh P Mehta
Journal:  JAMA Oncol       Date:  2017-06-01       Impact factor: 31.777

10.  Dexamethasone and supportive care with or without whole brain radiotherapy in treating patients with non-small cell lung cancer with brain metastases unsuitable for resection or stereotactic radiotherapy (QUARTZ): results from a phase 3, non-inferiority, randomised trial.

Authors:  Paula Mulvenna; Matthew Nankivell; Rachael Barton; Corinne Faivre-Finn; Paula Wilson; Elaine McColl; Barbara Moore; Iona Brisbane; David Ardron; Tanya Holt; Sally Morgan; Caroline Lee; Kathryn Waite; Neil Bayman; Cheryl Pugh; Benjamin Sydes; Richard Stephens; Mahesh K Parmar; Ruth E Langley
Journal:  Lancet       Date:  2016-09-04       Impact factor: 79.321

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  12 in total

1.  Population-based estimates of survival among elderly patients with brain metastases.

Authors:  Nayan Lamba; Rachel Brigell Kearney; Paul J Catalano; Michael J Hassett; Patrick Y Wen; Daphne A Haas-Kogan; Ayal A Aizer
Journal:  Neuro Oncol       Date:  2021-04-12       Impact factor: 12.300

2.  Survival in Patients With Brain Metastases: Summary Report on the Updated Diagnosis-Specific Graded Prognostic Assessment and Definition of the Eligibility Quotient.

Authors:  Paul W Sperduto; Shane Mesko; Jing Li; Daniel Cagney; Ayal Aizer; Nancy U Lin; Eric Nesbit; Tim J Kruser; Jason Chan; Steve Braunstein; Jessica Lee; John P Kirkpatrick; Will Breen; Paul D Brown; Diana Shi; Helen A Shih; Hany Soliman; Arjun Sahgal; Ryan Shanley; William A Sperduto; Emil Lou; Ashlyn Everett; Drexell H Boggs; Laura Masucci; David Roberge; Jill Remick; Kristin Plichta; John M Buatti; Supriya Jain; Laurie E Gaspar; Cheng-Chia Wu; Tony J C Wang; John Bryant; Michael Chuong; Yi An; Veronica Chiang; Toshimichi Nakano; Hidefumi Aoyama; Minesh P Mehta
Journal:  J Clin Oncol       Date:  2020-09-15       Impact factor: 44.544

3.  Type and timing of systemic therapy use predict overall survival for patients with brain metastases treated with radiation therapy.

Authors:  Kevin Yijun Fan; Nafisha Lalani; Nathalie LeVasseur; Andra Krauze; Fred Hsu; Lovedeep Gondara; Kaylie Willemsma; Alan McVey Nichol
Journal:  J Neurooncol       Date:  2020-11-18       Impact factor: 4.130

Review 4.  Current approaches to the management of brain metastases.

Authors:  John H Suh; Rupesh Kotecha; Samuel T Chao; Manmeet S Ahluwalia; Arjun Sahgal; Eric L Chang
Journal:  Nat Rev Clin Oncol       Date:  2020-02-20       Impact factor: 66.675

5.  Validation of the graded prognostic assessment for gastrointestinal cancers with brain metastases (GI-GPA).

Authors:  Carsten Nieder; Mandy Hintz; Ilinca Popp; Angelika Bilger; Anca L Grosu
Journal:  Radiat Oncol       Date:  2020-02-13       Impact factor: 3.481

6.  Stereotactic Radiosurgery of Brain Metastasis in Patients with a Poor Prognosis: Effective or Overtreatment?

Authors:  Maciej Harat; Maciej Blok; Izabela Miechowicz; Joanna Kowalewska
Journal:  Cancer Manag Res       Date:  2020-12-07       Impact factor: 3.989

7.  Impact of pre-OP independence in patients with limited brain metastases on long-term survival.

Authors:  Annalen Bleckmann; Benjamin Kirchner; Manuel Nietert; Micha Peeck; Marko Balkenhol; Daniela Egert; T Veit Rohde; Tim Beißbarth; Tobias Pukrop
Journal:  BMC Cancer       Date:  2020-10-08       Impact factor: 4.430

8.  Stereotactic Radiosurgery Results for Patients With Brain Metastases From Gastrointestinal Cancer: A Retrospective Cohort Study of 802 Patients With GI-GPA Validity Test.

Authors:  Masaaki Yamamoto; Toru Serizawa; Yasunori Sato; Yoshinori Higuchi; Takuya Kawabe; Hidetoshi Kasuya; Bierta E Barfod
Journal:  Adv Radiat Oncol       Date:  2021-05-18

9.  Treatment of brain metastases from gastrointestinal primaries: Comparing whole-brain radiotherapy and stereotactic radiosurgery in terms of survival.

Authors:  Selvi Dincer; Defne Gurbuz
Journal:  North Clin Istanb       Date:  2021-02-11

10.  Primary tumor side is associated with prognosis of colorectal cancer patients with brain metastases.

Authors:  E S Bergen; P Scherleitner; P Ferreira; B Kiesel; C Müller; G Widhalm; K Dieckmann; G Prager; M Preusser; A S Berghoff
Journal:  ESMO Open       Date:  2021-06-04
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