Brent A Langellier1, Usama Bilal2, Felipe Montes3, Jose D Meisel4, Letícia de Oliveira Cardoso5, Ross A Hammond6. 1. Department of Health Management and Policy, Dornsife School of Public Health, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Electronic address: bal95@drexel.edu. 2. Urban Health Collaborative, Dornsife School of Public Health, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Dornsife School of Public Health, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. 3. Department of Industrial Engineering, Universidad de los Andes, Social and Health Complexity Center, Bogota, Colombia. 4. Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Ibagué, Ibagué, Colombia. 5. Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. 6. Center on Social Dynamics and Policy, The Brookings Institution, Washington, District of Columbia; Public Health and Social Policy, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri; The Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico.
Abstract
CONTEXT: Complex systems approaches can help to elucidate mechanisms that shape population-level patterns in diet and inform policy approaches. This study reports results of a structured review of key design elements and methods used by existing complex systems models of diet. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: The authors conducted systematic searches of the PubMed, Web of Science, and LILACS databases between May and September 2018 to identify peer-reviewed manuscripts that used agent-based models or system dynamics models to explore diet. Searches occurred between November 2017 and May 2018. The authors extracted relevant data regarding each study's diet and nutrition outcomes; use of data for parameterization, calibration, and validation; results; and generated insights. The literature search adhered to PRISMA guidelines. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: Twenty-two agent-based model studies and five system dynamics model studies met the inclusion criteria. Mechanistic studies explored neighborhood- (e.g., residential segregation), interpersonal- (e.g., social influence) and individual-level (e.g., heuristics that guide food purchasing decisions) mechanisms that influence diet. Policy-oriented studies examined policies related to food pricing, the food environment, advertising, nutrition labels, and social norms. Most studies used empirical data to inform values of key parameters; studies varied in their approaches to calibration and validation. CONCLUSIONS: Opportunities remain to advance the state of the science of complex systems approaches to diet and nutrition. These include using models to better understand mechanisms driving population-level diet, increasing use of models for policy decision support, and leveraging the wide availability of epidemiologic and policy evaluation data to improve model validation.
CONTEXT: Complex systems approaches can help to elucidate mechanisms that shape population-level patterns in diet and inform policy approaches. This study reports results of a structured review of key design elements and methods used by existing complex systems models of diet. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: The authors conducted systematic searches of the PubMed, Web of Science, and LILACS databases between May and September 2018 to identify peer-reviewed manuscripts that used agent-based models or system dynamics models to explore diet. Searches occurred between November 2017 and May 2018. The authors extracted relevant data regarding each study's diet and nutrition outcomes; use of data for parameterization, calibration, and validation; results; and generated insights. The literature search adhered to PRISMA guidelines. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: Twenty-two agent-based model studies and five system dynamics model studies met the inclusion criteria. Mechanistic studies explored neighborhood- (e.g., residential segregation), interpersonal- (e.g., social influence) and individual-level (e.g., heuristics that guide food purchasing decisions) mechanisms that influence diet. Policy-oriented studies examined policies related to food pricing, the food environment, advertising, nutrition labels, and social norms. Most studies used empirical data to inform values of key parameters; studies varied in their approaches to calibration and validation. CONCLUSIONS: Opportunities remain to advance the state of the science of complex systems approaches to diet and nutrition. These include using models to better understand mechanisms driving population-level diet, increasing use of models for policy decision support, and leveraging the wide availability of epidemiologic and policy evaluation data to improve model validation.
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