| Literature DB >> 31215776 |
Heather S Feigelson1, John D Powers1, Mayanka Kumar1, Nikki M Carroll1, Arun Pathy2, Debra P Ritzwoller1.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have examined melanoma incidence and survival, but studies on melanoma recurrence are limited. We examined melanoma incidence, recurrence, and mortality among members of Kaiser Permanente Colorado (KPCO) between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2015.Entities:
Keywords: Incidence; melanoma; mortality; prognosis; recurrence
Mesh:
Year: 2019 PMID: 31215776 PMCID: PMC6675720 DOI: 10.1002/cam4.2252
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Cancer Med ISSN: 2045-7634 Impact factor: 4.452
Characteristics of invasive melanoma cases, Kaiser Permanente Colorado, 2000‐2015
| Characteristic | Total cases | Stage I | Stage II | Stage III | Stage IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N (%) | N (%) | N (%) | N (%) | N (%) | |
| Number of people | 1931 | 1497 (77.5%) | 277 (14.3%) | 103 (5.3%) | 54 (2.8%) |
| Age group | |||||
| <30 | 57 (3.0%) | 45 (3.0%) | 7 (2.5%) | 5 (4.9%) | 0 (0.0%) |
| 30‐39 | 148 (7.7%) | 124 (8.3%) | 13 (4.7%) | 6 (5.8%) | 5 (9.3%) |
| 40‐49 | 250 (13.0%) | 209 (14.0%) | 25 (9.0%) | 11 (10.7%) | 5 (9.3%) |
| 50‐59 | 398 (20.6%) | 333 (22.2%) | 33 (11.9%) | 22 (21.4%) | 10 (18.5%) |
| 60‐69 | 483 (25.0%) | 375 (25.1%) | 59 (21.3%) | 31 (30.1%) | 18 (33.3%) |
| 70‐79 | 387 (20.0%) | 269 (18.0%) | 85 (30.7%) | 22 (21.4%) | 11 (20.4%) |
| 80+ | 208 (10.8%) | 142 (9.5%) | 55 (19.9%) | 6 (5.8%) | 5 (9.3%) |
| Gender | |||||
| Female | 815 (42.2%) | 665 (44.4%) | 97 (35.0%) | 34 (33.0%) | 19 (35.2%) |
| Male | 1116 (57.8%) | 832 (55.6%) | 180 (65.0%) | 69 (67.0%) | 35 (64.8%) |
| Race/Ethnicity | |||||
| Non‐Hispanic White | 1888 (97.8%) | 1466 (97.9%) | 269 (97.1%) | 102 (99.0%) | 51 (94.4%) |
| Hispanic | 21 (1.1%) | 13 (0.9%) | 5 (1.8%) | 1 (1.0%) | 2 (3.7%) |
| Other | 22 (1.1%) | 18 (1.2%) | 3 (1.1%) | 0 (0.0%) | 1 (1.9%) |
| Average (SD) percent of people with college or more education in census block | 45.1% (19.9%) | 45.8% (19.7%) | 43.9% (19.5%) | 40.9% (21.9%) | 40.8% (21.7%) |
| Comorbidity score | |||||
| 0 | 1110 (57.5%) | 910 (60.8%) | 128 (46.2%) | 54 (52.4%) | 18 (33.3%) |
| 1‐2 | 533 (27.6%) | 400 (26.7%) | 88 (31.8%) | 33 (32.0%) | 12 (22.2%) |
| 3+ | 288 (14.9%) | 187 (12.5%) | 61 (22.0%) | 16 (15.5%) | 24 (44.4%) |
| First course therapy | |||||
| Surgery | 1887 (97.7%) | 1495 (99.9%) | 277 (100.0%) | 100 (97.1%) | 15 (27.8%) |
| Radiation | 24 (1.2%) | 2 (0.1%) | 3 (1.1%) | 4 (3.9%) | 15 (27.8%) |
| Chemotherapy | 16 (0.8%) | 0 (0.0%) | 1 (0.4%) | 2 (1.9%) | 13 (24.1%) |
| Biologic response modulators | 67 (3.5%) | 7 (0.5%) | 9 (3.3%) | 35 (34.0%) | 16 (29.6%) |
Figure 1Age‐adjusted incidence rates and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for invasive melanoma, 2000‐2015. Incidence rates are displayed for the adult Kaiser Permanente Colorado (KPCO) population aged 21 years and older. SEER rates are plotted for comparison
Figure 2Age‐adjusted incidence rates for invasive melanoma by stage at diagnosis. Kaiser Permanente Colorado, 2000‐2015
Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for characteristics associated with recurrence for incident melanoma, stages I‐III, Kaiser Permanente Colorado, 2000‐2015
| Observations | Unadjusted HR | 95% CI | Adjusted | 95% CI |
| Adjusted | 95% CI |
| |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stage I | 1486 | Ref | Ref | Ref | |||||
| Stage II | 272 | 6.37 | 4.43‐9.18 | 5.54 | 3.83‐8.03 | <0.0001 | 5.27 | 3.63‐7.67 | <0.0001 |
| Stage III | 94 | 19.54 | 13.24‐28.82 | 18.58 | 12.51‐27.61 | <0.0001 | 16.23 | 10.45‐25.19 | <0.0001 |
| Female | 788 | Ref | Ref | Ref | |||||
| Male | 1064 | 2.20 | 1.55‐3.12 | 1.72 | 1.21‐2.45 | 0.003 | 1.70 | 1.19‐2.43 | 0.003 |
| Age in decades | 1.29 | 1.15‐1.43 | 1.18 | 1.04‐1.33 | 0.009 | 1.20 | 1.06‐1.37 | 0.005 | |
| White | 1816 | Ref | Ref | Ref | |||||
| Non‐White | 36 | 1.22 | 0.45‐3.29 | 1.81 | 0.66‐4.97 | 0.251 | 1.86 | 0.68‐5.12 | 0.228 |
| Socioeconomic status | 0.44 | 0.20‐0.96 | 0.74 | 0.33‐1.67 | 0.466 | 0.75 | 0.33‐1.69 | 0.486 | |
| Comorbid conditions: 0 | 1084 | Ref | Ref | Ref | |||||
| Comorbid conditions: 1‐2 | 511 | 1.48 | 1.04‐2.10 | 1.10 | 0.77‐1.58 | 0.602 | 1.14 | 0.79‐1.64 | 0.494 |
| Comorbid conditions: 3+ | 257 | 2.04 | 1.35‐3.08 | 1.12 | 0.72‐1.76 | 0.614 | 1.10 | 0.71‐1.73 | 0.665 |
| No radiation | 1845 | Ref | Ref | ||||||
| Radiation | 7 | 10.69 | 3.96‐28.89 | 3.03 | 1.10‐8.36 | 0.0328 | |||
| No chemotherapy | 1849 | Ref | Ref | ||||||
| Chemotherapy | 3 | 3.85 | 0.54‐27.62 | 0.80 | 0.11‐6.13 | 0.833 | |||
| No biologic response modulators | 1803 | Ref | Ref | ||||||
| Biologic response modulators | 49 | 6.60 | 4.13‐10.54 | 1.51 | 0.86‐2.68 | 0.155 | |||
Adjusted for stage, gender, age as a continuous variable, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status as measured by percent of college educated households in census tract of residence, and comorbidity index
This model adds dichotomous variables for the type of treatments received in addition to the covariates listed in the prior model. Surgery was not included as all but one case received surgery as part of treatment
Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for characteristics associated with all‐cause mortality and melanoma‐specific mortality, Kaiser Permanente Colorado, 2000‐2015
| Observations | All‐Cause HR | 95% CI |
| Melanoma HR | 95% CI |
| |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stage I | 1497 | Ref | Ref | ||||
| Stage II | 277 | 1.79 | 1.37‐2.35 | <0.0001 | 7.61 | 4.55‐12.74 | <0.0001 |
| Stage III | 103 | 3.83 | 2.72‐5.40 | <0.0001 | 22.50 | 12.89‐39.26 | <0.0001 |
| Stage IV | 54 | 12.87 | 6.63‐24.99 | <0.0001 | 98.05 | 40.83‐235.43 | <0.0001 |
| Female | 815 | Ref | Ref | ||||
| Male | 1116 | 1.42 | 1.12‐1.79 | 0.003 | 1.95 | 1.29‐2.95 | 0.002 |
| Age in decades | 1.89 | 1.70‐2.10 | <0.0001 | 1.09 | 0.94‐1.25 | 0.253 | |
| White | 1888 | Ref | Ref | ||||
| Non‐White | 43 | 1.79 | 0.90‐3.55 | 0.095 | 2.66 | 1.01‐7.00 | 0.048 |
| Socioeconomic status | 0.40 | 0.23‐0.72 | 0.002 | 0.73 | 0.28‐1.90 | 0.516 | |
| Comorbid conditions: 0 | 1110 | Ref | Ref | ||||
| Comorbid conditions: 1‐2 | 533 | 1.68 | 1.29‐2.18 | 0.0001 | 1.21 | 0.79‐1.86 | 0.370 |
| Comorbid conditions: 3+ | 288 | 2.10 | 1.57‐2.79 | <0.0001 | 1.64 | 1.05‐2.56 | 0.030 |
| No surgery | 44 | Ref | Ref | ||||
| surgery | 1887 | 0.20 | 0.10‐0.40 | <0.0001 | 0.31 | 0.13‐0.74 | 0.008 |
| No radiation | 1907 | Ref | Ref | ||||
| radiation | 24 | 0.42 | 0.21‐0.83 | 0.013 | 0.37 | 0.17‐0.79 | 0.010 |
| No chemotherapy | 1915 | Ref | Ref | ||||
| chemotherapy | 16 | 1.03 | 0.50‐2.10 | 0.947 | 0.89 | 0.41‐1.93 | 0.765 |
| No biologic response modulators | 1864 | Ref | Ref | ||||
| Biologic response modulators | 67 | 1.35 | 0.82‐2.23 | 0.241 | 0.76 | 0.42‐1.38 | 0.369 |
Adjusted for stage, gender, age as a continuous variable, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status as measured by percent of college educated households in census tract of residence, comorbidity index, and dichotomous variables for the type of treatments received.
Melanoma‐specific mortality model excludes 18 cases where cause of death was unknown.