| Literature DB >> 31064089 |
Nanda Kaji Budhathoki1, Kerstin K Zander2,3.
Abstract
Farmers worldwide have to deal with increasing climate variability and weather extremes. Most of the previous research has focused on impacts on agricultural production, but little is known about the related social and economic impacts on farmers. In this study, we investigated the social and economic impact of extreme weather events (EWE) on farmers in Nepal, and explored how they coped with and adapted to heat waves and cold spells between 2012 and 2017. To address these aims, we conducted a survey of 350 farms randomly selected from the Bardiya and Banke districts of the Terai lowlands of Nepal. They were specifically asked to rate the impacts of extreme temperatures, as well as their effect on labour productivity and collective farmer health, and the detailed preventative measures they had implemented. About 84% of the farmers self-reported moderate or severe heat stress during the last five years, and about 85%, moderate or severe cold stress. Likewise, the majority of respondents reported that both farmer health and labour productivity had been compromised by EWEs. Productivity loss had a strong association with the perceived levels of heat and cold stress, which, in turn, were more likely to be reported by farmers with previous EWE experience. Potentially due to the increased care required during EWEs, those farmers with livestock reported increased heat and cold stress, as, surprisingly, did those who had implemented adaptation measures. Farmers seemed to be less prepared for potential threats of cold spells than heat waves, and therefore less likely to adopt coping strategies, since these are a recent phenomenon. This study identified some limitations. The cross sectional and self-reported data, as a common source of information to estimate health impact, level of heat/cold stress and labour productivity loss. Community-based education/community engagement programs could be developed to facilitate proactive adaptation.Entities:
Keywords: climate change; cold spells; crop production; heat waves; labour productivity loss; public health
Mesh:
Year: 2019 PMID: 31064089 PMCID: PMC6539874 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16091578
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Int J Environ Res Public Health ISSN: 1660-4601 Impact factor: 3.390
Figure 1Study areas.
Summary of factors determining the heat and cold stress and related productivity loss.
| Factor | Impact | Source |
|---|---|---|
|
| ||
| Income | Negative | Kovats and Hajat 2008, Tawatsupa et al. 2010, Gronlund 2014, Zheng and Dallimer 2016 |
| Access to weather information | Positive | Bryan et al. 2009, Bryan et al. 2013 |
| Type of house | Positive | Gifford and Zong 2017, Zander et al. 2015, Pradhan et al. 2013 |
| Education | Positive/Negative | Gronlund 2014 |
| Livestock | Positive/Negative | |
|
| ||
| Experiences of heat waves and cold spells | positive | Venugopal et al. 2015, Akerlof et al. 2010, Akompab et al. 2013, Wachinger et al. 2013 |
| Satisfaction with job/work | Positive | Kramer and Hafner 1989, Baruch-Feldman et al. 2002 |
| Existing health condition | positive | Dollard and Neser 2013, Burton et al. 1999 |
|
| ||
| Age | Positive | Hansen et al. 2011, Sun et al. 2016, Zander et al. 2017, Hajat et al. 2014 |
| Male | Positive/Negative | Tawatsupa et al. 2010, Pradhan et al. 2013, Burse 1979, Lundgren et al. 2013b |
| Current health status/pre-existing extreme-temperature-related symptoms/illnesses (numbers) | Positive | Hassi et al. 2005, Rocklöv and Forsberg 2008, Gifford and Zong 2017, Mathee et al. 2010, Zander et al. 2018a, Burton et al. 1999 |
| Implemented response measures | Positive | Zaalberg et al. 2009, Wise et al. 2014 |
| Length of exposure to extreme heat/cold | Positive | Lundgren et al. 2013, Pilcher et al. 2002, Acharya et al. 2018, Enander 1987 |
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| District/urban/heat island effects | Positive | Kovats and Hajat 2008, Kleerekoper et al. 2012, Zander et al. 2018a |
Figure 2Analytical framework.
Sample description (N = 350).
| Variables | Bardiya Frequency (%) | Banke Frequency (%) | P-Value | Overall Sample Frequency (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| 167 (47.71) | 183 (52.29) | 350 (100) | |
|
| ||||
| Land size (Bigga) (mean; SD) | 1.22 (1.47) | 1.63 (1.94) | 0.02 | (1.42; 1.81) |
| Annual household’s income (NRP) | 0.001 | |||
| <50000 | 12 (7.1) | 24 (13.1) | 36 (10.2) | |
| 50,000–100,000 | 38 (22.7) | 41 (22.4) | 79 (22.5) | |
| 100,000–200,000 | 31 (18.5) | 52 (28.4) | 83 (23.7) | |
| 200,000–300,000 | 35 (20.9) | 41 (22.4) | 76 (21.7) | |
| >300,000 | 51 (30.5) | 25 (13.6) | 76 (21.6) | |
| Education | 0.02 | |||
| No formal education | 47 (28.1) | 67 (36.6) | 114 (32.5) | |
| Primary | 58 (34.7) | 67 (36.6) | 125 (35.7) | |
| High school | 29 (17.3) | 23 (12.5) | 52 (14.8) | |
| Completed 10 + 2 | 14 (8.3) | 16 (8.7) | 30 (8.5) | |
| Undergraduate and above | 19 (11.3) | 10 (5.4) | 29 (8.5) | |
| Access to weather information | 0.02 | |||
| Yes | 65 (38.9) | 50 (27.3) | 115 (32.8) | |
| No | 102 (61.1) | 133 (72.6) | 235 (67.2) | |
| House type | 0.0007 | |||
| 1, If concrete and brick house | 71 (42.5) | 111 (60.7) | 182 (52) | |
| 0, Otherwise (leaves, mud) | 96 (57.5) | 72 (39.3) | 168 (48) | |
| Livestock | 0.01 | |||
| 1, If have cows/buffalos | 125 (74.8) | 115 (62.8) | 240 (68.5) | |
| 0, Otherwise | 42 (25.1) | 68 (37.2) | 110 (31.5) | |
|
| ||||
| Age (mean; SD) | 37.1 (13.3) | 40.1 (12.4) | 0.03 | (38.72; 12.9) |
| Sex | 0.009 | |||
| Male | 93 (55.6) | 127 (69.4) | 220 (62.8) | |
| Female | 74 (44.3) | 56 (30.6) | 130 (37.2) | |
| Household size (mean; SD) | 7.22 (4.87) | 8.49 (5.59) | 0.02 | (7.82; 5.29) |
| Health Satisfaction | 0.7215 | |||
| Not at all satisfied | 4 (2.4) | 0 (0) | 4 (1.1) | |
| Not very | 12 (7.1) | 17 (9.2) | 29 (8.2) | |
| Moderately satisfied | 95 (56.8) | 107 (58.4) | 202 (57.7) | |
| Fairly satisfied | 56 (33.5) | 57 (31.1) | 113 (32.2) | |
| Very satisfied | 0 (0) | 2 (1.09) | 2 (0.5) | |
| Agricultural job satisfaction | 0.009 | |||
| Not at all satisfied | 2 (1.2) | 3 (1.6) | 5 (1.4) | |
| Not very | 23 (13.7) | 25 (13.6) | 48 (13.7) | |
| Moderately satisfied | 133 (79.6) | 115 (62.8) | 248 (70.8) | |
| Fairly satisfied | 9 (5.3) | 39 (21.3) | 48 (13.7) | |
| Very satisfied | 0 (0) | 1 (0.5) | 1 (0.2) | |
| Perceived health condition | 0.02 | |||
| Bad | 3 (1.8) | 11 (6) | 14 (4) | |
| Fair | 66 (39.5) | 83 (45.3) | 149 (42.5) | |
| Good | 98 (58.6) | 89 (48.6) | 187 (53.5) | |
| Heat wave measures (mean; SD) | 3.8 (0.71) | 3.1 (1.08) | 0.00 | (3.5;0.9) |
| Cold spell measures (mean; SD) | 3.4 (0.87) | 3.1 (1.03) | 0.00 | (3.2;0.9) |
| Working days in summer (mean; SD) | 42.8 (23.4) | 47.4 (23.6) | 0.06 | (45.2;23.6) |
| Working days in winter (mean; SD) | 32.9 (26.08) | 43.3 (26.8) | 0.00 | (38.3;26.9) |
| Heat-related illnesses over the previous five years (numbers) (mean; SD) | 3.13 (1.39) | 2.18 (1.44) | 0.00 | (2.64; 1.49) |
| Cold-related illnesses over the previous five years (numbers) (mean; SD) | 2.04 (0.83) | 1.39 (0.88) | 0.00 | (1.70; 0.92) |
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| Level of perceived heat stress | 0.209 | |||
| Low | 23 (13.7) | 31 (16.9) | 54 (15.4) | |
| Medium | 60 (35.9) | 72 (39.3) | 132 (37.7) | |
| High | 84 (50.3) | 80 (43.7) | 164 (46.8) | |
| Level of perceived cold stress | 0.00 | |||
| Low | 17 (10.1) | 34 (18.5) | 51 (14.5) | |
| Medium | 63 (37.7) | 94 (51.3) | 157 (44.8) | |
| High | 87 (52.1) | 55 (30.05) | 142 (40.5) | |
| Heat wave perception | 0.004 | |||
| Increased | 156 (93.4) | 155 (84.7) | 311 (88.8) | |
| Constant | 6 (3.5) | 9 (4.9) | 15 (4.2) | |
| Decreased | 5 (2.9) | 19 (10.3) | 24 (6.8) | |
| Cold spell perception | 0.35 | |||
| Increased | 87 (52.1) | 101 (55.1) | 188 (53.7) | |
| Constant | 22 (13.1) | 29 (15.8) | 51 (14.5) | |
| Decreased | 58 (34.7) | 53 (28.9) | 111 (31.7) |
Figure 3Heat wave and cold spell induced health problems.
Results of ordered logit model with the dependent variables being the level of heat stress and cold stress (from 1 very low to 3 very high).
| Variables | Perceived Heat Stress Category | Perceived Cold Stress Category |
|---|---|---|
|
| ||
| Land size (in Bigha 1) | −0.03 (0.08) | 0.0002 (0.08) |
| Annual income (1–5) | 0.10 (0.10) | 0.08 (0.11) |
| Having access to weather information | −1.03 *** (0.25) | −0.74 *** (0.28) |
| Living in concrete or brick building | −0.10 (0.23) | 0.20 (0.23) |
| Owning livestock | 0.44 * (0.24) | 0.48 ** (0.24) |
| Level of education (1 to 5) | 0.11 (0.11) | 0.14 (0.12) |
|
| ||
| Age | 0.11 ** (0.05) | 0.05 (0.05) |
| Age Square | −0.00 (0.00) | −0.00 (0.00) |
| Number of active family members (15–59 years) | 0.02 (0.04) | −0.02 (0.04) |
| Male | −0.12 (0.26) | −0.01 (0.26) |
| Health status (1 to 3) | −0.25 (0.21) | 0.18 (0.21) |
| Number of implemented response measures | 0.35 *** (0.13) | 0.58 *** (0.15) |
| Number of working days | 0.01 * (0.01) | 0.001 (0.01) |
|
| ||
| Perceived extreme events experiences (1 to 3) | 0.71 *** (0.20) | 0.38 *** (0.15) |
| Health satisfaction (1 to 5) | 0.34 ** (0.17) | 0.27 (0.18) |
|
| ||
| Living in an urban area | 0.07 (0.24) | 0.82 *** (0.24) |
| Constant cut 1 | 3.81 ** (1.51) | 3.53 ** (1.58) |
| Constant cut 2 | 5.93 *** (1.53) | 6.10 *** (1.61) |
| Observations | 350 | 350 |
*** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1; Standard errors in parentheses, 1 I Bigha = 0.67 ha. Note: the number of implemented response measures were either in response to heat waves or cold spells, and the number of working days was either during the summer or winter in the heat wave and cold spell model, respectively. The number of perceived events were in relation to either heat waves or cold spells, depending on the model.
Determinants of self-reported labour productivity loss.
| Variables | Perceived Labour Productivity Loss during Heat Waves | Perceived Labour Productivity Loss during Cold Spells |
|---|---|---|
|
| ||
| Land size (in Bigha) | −0.14 (0.14) | −0.05 (0.13) |
| Annual income (1 to 5) | 0.28 (0.19) | 0.39 ** (0.18) |
| Access to weather information | 2.22 *** (0.64) | 2.60 *** (0.64) |
| Living in concrete or brick building | 0.40 (0.43) | 0.41 (0.39) |
| Owning livestock | 0.44 (0.43) | 0.03 (0.40) |
| Education (1 to 5) | 0.16 (0.21) | 0.23 (0.21) |
|
| ||
| Age | 0.09 (0.10) | 0.22 *** (0.08) |
| Age Square | −0.009 (0.00) | −0.002 *** (0.00) |
| Active family members (15–59 years) | −0.02 (0.06) | −0.04 (0.06) |
| Male | −0.68 (0.48) | −0.75 * (0.44) |
| Health status (1 to 3) | −0.31 (0.36) | 0.21 (0.34) |
| Number of perceived illnesses/symptoms | 0.37 ** (0.15) | 0.50 ** (0.23) |
| Number of implemented response measures | 0.88 *** (0.23) | 0.43 * (0.24) |
| Number of working days | 0.01 (0.01) | −0.001 (0.01) |
|
| ||
| Perceived extreme events experience (1 to 3) | 0.32 (0.34) | −0.02 (0.24) |
| Perceived stress medium (§) | 1.69 *** (0.55) | 2.70 *** (0.59) |
| Perceived stress high (§) | 1.47 *** (0.54) | 2.30 *** (0.57) |
| Work Satisfaction in agriculture (1 to 5) | −0.31 (0.32) | −0.31 (0.30) |
|
| ||
| Urban (Dummy) | 1.36 *** (0.50) | 1.76 *** (0.45) |
| Constant | −5.64 ** (2.66) | −9.14 *** (2.62) |
| Observations | 350 | 350 |
*** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1, Standard errors in parentheses. Reference case(§): low perceived stress from heat and cold. Note: the number of implemented response measures were in response to either heat waves or cold spells, and the number of working days was either during the summer or winter, in the perceived productivity loss from the heat wave and cold spell models, respectively. The number of perceived events were in relation to either heat waves or cold spells, depending on the model. Numbers of perceived illnessses or symptoms were related to either heat or cold in the perceived productivity loss from the heat wave and cold spell models. Perceived stress medium and perceived stress high were also in response to either heat or cold with reference to low perceived stress in self-reported productivity loss from heat waves and cold spells.