| Literature DB >> 31040303 |
Jun-Sik Lim1,2, Kyung-Duk Min2, Sukhyun Ryu3, Seung-Sik Hwang2, Sung-Il Cho4.
Abstract
The first case of human brucellosis in South Korea was reported in 2002, and cases of human infection continue to occur. Although an association between human and bovine brucellosis has been identified, the spatial relationship has not been studied in South Korea. Here, we analysed the spatial patterns of human and bovine brucellosis retrieved from the human and veterinary surveillance data, as well as the spatial correlation between human and bovine brucellosis and associated factors that contribute to its occurrence. The risk of human brucellosis was analysed using a Bayesian spatial model with potential risk factors. Our results show that, for both human and bovine brucellosis, hotspots were clustered in the southeast regions of Korea, whereas coldspots were clustered in the northwest regions of Korea. Our study suggests that the risk of human brucellosis increases in rural regions with the highest risk of bovine brucellosis. Collaborative strategies between human and veterinary health sectors (e.g, public health intervention and region-specific eradication programs for bovine brucellosis) would reduce the burden of brucellosis in South Korea.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2019 PMID: 31040303 PMCID: PMC6491422 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-43043-7
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Sci Rep ISSN: 2045-2322 Impact factor: 4.379
Descriptive statistics.
| Variable | Scale | Mean | SD** | Minimum | Median | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Human population | 1 person | 204840.00 | 157982.90 | 16781.00 | 174965.00 | 634941.00 |
| Cattle population | 100 cattle | 128.65 | 142.89 | 0.14 | 86.90 | 778.62 |
| SIR* of human brucellosis | — | 2.68 | 5.11 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 29.58 |
| - Smoothed estimates | — | 2.25 | 3.96 | 0.02 | 0.35 | 22.15 |
| SIR | — | 0.90 | 1.15 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 9.09 |
| - Smoothed estimates | — | 0.93 | 1.06 | 0.00 | 0.62 | 8.87 |
| Mean herd size | 1 cattle | 34.10 | 15.93 | 0.00 | 31.78 | 99.85 |
| Rural population | 100 people | 13.13 | 14.04 | 0.00 | 10.47 | 86.24 |
| Number of slaughterhouses | 1 ea | 0.34 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.00 |
*SIR: Standardized incidence ratio.
**SD: Standard deviation.
Results of univariate and bivariate Moran’s I.
| Variable | I | E(I) | SD(I) | Z | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Univariate Global Moran’s I | Human brucellosis | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 7.83 | <0.01 |
| Bovine brucellosis | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 5.41 | <0.01 | |
| Bivariate Global Moran’s I | Bovine brucellosis | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 3.19 | 0.01 |
| Rural population | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 10.65 | <0.01 | |
| Cattle population | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 6.53 | <0.01 | |
| Mean herd size | −0.03 | 0.00 | 0.04 | −0.77 | 0.23 | |
| Number of slaughterhouses | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 3.81 | <0.01 |
Figure 1LISA and BiLISA cluster maps of human brucellosis and bovine brucellosis in Korea, 2005–2010 (a) LISA of human brucellosis, (b) LISA of bovine brucellosis (c) BiLISA of human and bovine brucellosis.
Figure 2BiLISA cluster maps of risk of human brucellosis and risk factors in Korea, 2005–2010. (a) BiLISA cluster map of the risk of HB and rural population. (b) BiLISA cluster map of the risk of HB and cattle population. (c) BiLISA cluster map of the risk of HB and mean herd size. (d) BiLISA cluster map of the risk of HB and the number of slaughtershouse.
Results of univariable analysis using Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson model.
| Variable | Risk ratio | 80% credible interval |
|---|---|---|
| Smoothed SIR* of bovine brucellosis | 1.16 | 1.11–1.21 |
| Rural population | 1.03 | 1.03–1.37 |
| Cattle population | 1.01 | 1.00–1.01 |
|
| ||
| <31.78 | — | — |
| >31.78 | 0.89 | 0.77–1.04 |
| Number of slaughterhouses | 1.24 | 1.14–1.35 |
*SIR: Standardized incidence ratio.
Model comparison for the different random effect terms.
| Model | Deviance information criterion |
|---|---|
| Both spatial and non-spatial random effects (Bayesian spatial model) | 718.93 |
| Only spatial random effect | 810.81 |
| Only non-spatial random effect | 818.27 |
| No random effects (Bayesian Zero-inflated Poisson model) | 1278.06 |
Multivariable regression results using Bayesian spatial model.
| Variable | Risk ratio | 95% credible interval |
|---|---|---|
| Smoothed estimates of SIR* of bovine brucellosis | 1.49 | 1.22–1.82 |
| Rural population | 1.04 | 1.01–1.07 |
| Cattle population | 1.01 | 1.00–1.01 |
| Number of slaughterhouses | 0.91 | 0.69–1.20 |
*SIR: Standardized incidence ratio.
Figure 3Choropleth map showing posterior mean values of SIR of human brucellosis from Bayesian spatial zero-inflated model.