| Literature DB >> 30846792 |
Matteo Ravaioli1, Federica Odaldi2, Alessandro Cucchetti2, Franco Trevisani3, Fabio Piscaglia4, Vanessa De Pace2, Valentina Rosa Bertuzzo2, Flavia Neri2, Rita Golfieri5, Alberta Cappelli5, Antonietta D'Errico6, Matteo Cescon2, Massimo Del Gaudio2, Guido Fallani2, Antonio Siniscalchi7, Maria Cristina Morelli2, Francesca Ciccarese8, Maria Di Marco9, Fabio Farinati10, Edoardo Giovanni Giannini11, Antonio Daniele Pinna2.
Abstract
The objective of the study is to evaluate 10 years of down-staging strategy for liver transplantation (LT) with a median follow-up of 5 years. Data on long-term results are poor and less information is available for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) non-responder patients or those ineligible for down-staging. The outcome of 308 HCC candidates and the long-term results of 231 LTs for HCC performed between 2003 and 2013 were analyzed. HCCs were divided according to tumor stage and response to therapy: 145 patients were T2 (metering Milan Criteria, MC), 43 were T3 successfully down-staged to T2 (Down-Achieved), 20 were T3 not fully down-staged to T2 (Down-not Achieved), and 23 patients were T3 not receiving down-staging treatments (No-Down). The average treatment effect (ATE) of LT for T3 tumors was estimated using the outcome of 535 T3 patients undergoing non-LT therapies, using inverse probability weighting regression adjustment. The 24-month drop-out rate during waiting time was significantly higher in the down-staging groups: 27.6% vs. 9.2%, p < 0.005. After LT, the tumor recurrence rate was significantly different: MC 7.6%, Down-Achieved 20.9%, Down-not Achieved 31.6%, and No-Down 30.4% (p < 0.001). The survival rates at 5 years were: 63% in Down-Achieved, 62% in Down-not Achieved, 63% in No-Down, and 77% in MC (p = n.s.). The only variable related to a better outcome was the effective down-staging to T2 at the histological evaluation of the explanted liver: recurrence rate = 7.8% vs. 26% (p < 0.001) and 5-year patient survival = 76% vs. 67% (p < 0.05). The ATE estimation showed that the mean survival of T3-LT candidates was significantly better than that of T3 patients ineligible for LT [83.3 vs 39.2 months (+44.6 months); p < 0.001]. Long term outcome of T3 down-staged candidates was poorer than that of MC candidates, particularly for cases not achieving down-staging. However, their survival outcome was significantly better than that achieved with non-transplant therapies.Entities:
Mesh:
Year: 2019 PMID: 30846792 PMCID: PMC6405768 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-40543-4
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Sci Rep ISSN: 2045-2322 Impact factor: 4.379
Clinical features of patients on the waiting list divided according to the study population.
| Meeting Bologna down-staging criteria (n = 122) | T2 group MC | P | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Down-staging completed | Down- staging not completed | Down- staging not performed | |||
| Down-Achieved | Down-No Achieved | No-Down | |||
| (n = 65) | (n = 30) | (n = 27) | (n = 186) | ||
| Male, n (%) | 60 (92.3) | 26 (86.7) | 160 (86.0) | ||
| Age y, mean ± SD (median) | 56 ± 9 | 55 ± 11 | 56 ± 7 | 57 ± 8 | p = 0.3 |
| Liver disease HCV + , n (%) | 36 (55.5) | 21 (70.0) | 18 (66.7) | 109 (58.6) | p = 0.1 |
| CHILD C, n (%) | 13 (20.0) | 5 (16.7) | 44 (23.8) | ||
| MELD, mean ± SD (median) | 13 ± 6 | 13 ± 5 | 16 ± 6 | 13 ± 5 | |
| AFP ng/dl median | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | p = 0.37 |
| Waiting time median days | 362 | 180 | 141 | 285 | p = 0.7 |
| Single HCC, n (%) | 6 (9.2) | 0 | |||
| 2 HCC, n (%) | 16 (24.6) | 9 (30.0) | 8 (29.6) | 51 (27.4) | |
| 3 HCC, n (%) | 11 (16.9) | 3 (10.0) | 5 (18.5) | 39 (19.9) | |
| 4 HCC, n (%) | 15 (23.1) | 14 (46.7) | — | — | |
| 5 HCC, n (%) | 17 (26.1) | 4 (13.3) | — | — | |
| 1 HCC mean size ± SD (median) | 3.7 ± 1.6 (4) | 3.6 ± 1.3 (3.9) | 2.8 ± 1.1 | 2.5 ± 0.9 | |
| 2 HCCs mean size ± SD (median) | 2 ± 1 (1.9) | 2.3 ± 0.9 (2.3) | 1.3 ± 1.2 | 1.1 ± 0.9 | |
| 3 HCCs mean size ± SD (median) | 1.4 ± 1.1 (1.2) | 1.4 ± 1.1 (1.1) | 0.8 ± 0.7 | 0.8 ± 0.7 | |
| 4 HCCs mean size ± SD (median) | 1.1 ± 0.8 (1) | 0.9 ± 0.7 (1) | — | — | |
| 5 HCCs mean size ± SD (median) | 1 ± 1.8 (1) | 0.8 ± 0.5 (0.6) | — | — | |
| Pre-LT Treatment, n (%) | 65 (100) | 30 (100) | 21 (77.8) | 167 (89.8) | |
| TACE, n (%) | 52 (80.0) | 28 (93.3) | 18 (66.7) | 118 (63.4) | |
| PEI | 19 (29.2) | 8 (26.7) | 3 (11.1) | 37 (19.9) | p = 0.19 |
| RF mean ± SD procedure | 28 (43.1) 1.5 ± 1.3 | 9 (30.0) 0.9 ± 0.3 | 8 (29.6) 1.1 ± 0.4 | 65 (34.9) 1.3 ± 0.9 | p = 0.49 |
| LR for down-stage | 18 (27.7) | 4 (13.8) | — | — | |
| Previous R0 LR | — | — | 3 (11.1) | 26 (14.1) | |
Explant histological results divided according to the study population.
| Meeting Bologna down-staging criteria (n = 86) | T2 group MC | P | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Down- staging completed | Down- staging not completed | Down- staging not performed | |||
| Down-Achieved | Down-not Achieved | No-Down | |||
| (n = 43) | (n = 20) | (n = 23) | (n = 145) | ||
| ≥ T3, n (%) | 16 (37.2) | 15 (75.0) | 17 (73.9) | 32 (22.1) | |
| Grade of differentiation Well, n (%) | 18 (42) | 3 (15) | 6 (26) | 83 (57) | |
| Moderate-Poor, n (%) | 25 (58) | 17 (75) | 17 (74) | 62 (43) | |
| Microvascular tumor invasion, n (%) | 22 (51.2) | 14 (70.0) | 15 (65.2) | 41 (28.3) | |
| Complete necrosis, no viable tumor, n (%) | 5 (11.6) | 2 (10.0) | 2 (8.7) | 20 (13.8) | p = 0.88 |
Figure 1Competing risk analysis of the probability of drop-out and transplantation in the study groups.
Figure 2Kaplan-Meier probabilities of tumor recurrence by study populations.
Figure 3Kaplan- Meier probabilities of patient survival by study populations.
Figure 4Kaplan-Meier probabilities of intention-to-treat survival by study populations.
Figure 5Multivariate competing-risk regression adjusted for covariates Age and MELD score at start and predicted probabilities of death among ITALICA, Down-Achieved, Down-not Achieved and No-Down groups.