| Literature DB >> 35401038 |
Astrid Herrero1, Lucile Boivineau2, Gianluca Cassese1,3, Eric Assenat4, Benjamin Riviere5, Stéphanie Faure2, José Ursic Bedoya2, Fabrizio Panaro1, Boris Guiu6, Francis Navarro1, Georges-Philippe Pageaux2.
Abstract
Microvascular invasion (MVI) is one of the main prognostic factors of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation (LT), but its occurrence is unpredictable before surgery. The alpha fetoprotein (AFP) model (composite score including size, number, AFP), currently used in France, defines the selection criteria for LT. This study's aim was to evaluate the preoperative predictive value of AFP SCORE progression on MVI and overall survival during the waiting period for LT. Data regarding LT recipients for HCC from 2007 to 2015 were retrospectively collected from a single institutional database. Among 159 collected cases, 34 patients progressed according to AFP SCORE from diagnosis until LT. MVI was shown to be an independent histopathological prognostic factor according to Cox regression and competing risk analysis in our cohort. AFP SCORE progression was the only preoperative predictive factor of MVI (OR = 10.79 [2.35-49.4]; p 0.002). The 5-year overall survival in the progression and no progression groups was 63.9% vs. 86.3%, respectively (p = 0.001). Cumulative incidence of HCC recurrence was significantly different between the progression and no progression groups (Sub-HR = 4.89 [CI 2-11.98]). In selected patients, the progression of AFP SCORE during the waiting period can be a useful preoperative tool to predict MVI.Entities:
Keywords: delta AFP score; hepatocellular carcinoma; liver transplantation; microvascular invasion; recurrence
Mesh:
Substances:
Year: 2022 PMID: 35401038 PMCID: PMC8983829 DOI: 10.3389/ti.2022.10412
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Transpl Int ISSN: 0934-0874 Impact factor: 3.782
FIGURE 1Flow chart of the study population.
Comparative analysis according to the AFP SCORE progression during the waiting period.
| Characteristics | Total | Progression | No progression |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ( | ( | ( | ||
| Age, mean (range) | 57.9 (39–72) | 59.3 (46–69) | 57.5 (39–72) | 0.18 |
| Sex, male/Female | 136/23 | 31/7 | 105/16 | 0.85 |
| BMI, kg/m2 median (IQR) | 26 (±6) | 26 (±6) | 26 (±7) | 0.58 |
| Etiology of cirrhosis (%) | ||||
| Hepatitis C | 55 (34) | 6 (18) | 49 (40) | 0.01 |
| Hepatitis B | 10 (6) | 2 (6) | 8 (6.5) | 0.91 |
| Alcohol | 75 (47) | 21 (62) | 54 (43) | 0.055 |
| NASH | 11 (7) | 4 (12) | 7 (5.6) | 0.20 |
| Other | 8 (6) | 1 (2) | 7 (5.6) | 0.52 |
| MELD score, Median (IQR) | 11 (±9) | 10 (±5.25) | 12 (±9) | 0.13 |
| MELD >30 (%) | 2 (1) | 0 | 2 (99) | 0.45 |
| MELD <30 (%) | 157 (99) | 34 (100) | 123 (1) | |
| Child- Pugh score (%) | ||||
| A | 79 (49) | 19 (56) | 60 (49) | 0.49 |
| B | 52 (32) | 10 (30) | 42 (34) | 0.64 |
| C | 26 (19) | 5 (14) | 21 (17) | 0.61 |
| Time on waiting list, mean (SD) | 7.32 (±5.75) | 7.85 (±4.95) | 7.18 (±5.9) | 0.50 |
| Pre-LT tumor treatment (%) | 119 (78) | 24 (64) | 95 (76) | 0.51 |
| Tumor number, (%) | ||||
| 1 | 73 (45) | 19 (50) | 67 (50) | 0.81 |
| 2 | 44 (28) | 8 (21) | 36 (27) | 0.55 |
| ≥3 | 42 (27) | 11 (29) | 31 (23) | 0.37 |
| Tumor size, mm, Median (IQR) | 18.5 (±17) | 24 (±11) | 22 (±13) | 0.68 |
| Diameter of largest nodule (%) | ||||
| ≤30 mm | 124 (78) | 95 (76) | 29 (85) | 0.28 |
| 30–60 mm | 32 (20) | 27 (22) | 5 (15) | 0.37 |
| >60 mm | 3 | 3 (2) | 0 | |
| AFP at diagnosis, ng/ml, median (range) | 6 [1–1,584] | 5.95 (2–607) | 6 (1–1,584) | 0.27 |
| AFP at diagnosis, ng/ml | ||||
| ≤100 | 153 (96.5) | 120 (96) | 33 (97) | 0.77 |
| 100–1,000 | 5 (3) | 4 (3) | 1 | 0.93 |
| >1,000 | 1 (0.5) | 1 | 0 | |
| AFP SCORE at diagnosis | ||||
| 0 | 111 (70) | 28 (82) | 83 (66) | 0.07 |
| 1 | 27 (17) | 5 (15) | 22 (18) | 0.69 |
| 2 | 13 (8) | 1 (3) | 12 (10) | 0.20 |
| ≥3 | 8 (5) | 0 | 8 (6) | |
Histopathological features on surgical specimens after liver explant.
| MVI (%) | 31 (20) |
| Macrovascular invasion (%) | 4 (2.5) |
| Satellite nodules (%) | 19 (11.9%) |
| Median tumor size (IQR) | 30 (20) |
| Median tumor number (IQR) | 2 (2) |
| Poor differentiation (%) | 15 (9.4) |
MVI, microvascular invasion; IQR, inter-quartile range; poor differentiation, G3 sec. Edmonson.
Cox regression model for overall survival, univariate analysis.
| Cox regression model for overall survival according to histopathological features | ||
|---|---|---|
| HR (CI 95%) |
| |
| MVI |
|
|
| Poor differentiation | 0.89 (0.34–2.29) | 0.815 |
| Satellite nodules | 0.85 (0.31–2.30) | 0.460 |
| Tumor size >30 mm | 1.63 (0.85–3.14) | 0.139 |
| Tumor nodule >3 | 1.31 (0.63–2.69) | 0.460 |
Bold values represent statistically significant results
MVI, microvascular invasion; SHR, sub-distribution hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval.
competing risk analysis for HCC recurrence according to post-operative histopathological factors.
| Competing risk analysis for HCC recurrence | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
| |
| MVI |
|
|
| Poor differentiation | 0.403 |
|
| Satellite nodules | 0.72 | |
| Tumor size >30 mm | 0.47 | |
| Tumor nodule >3 | 0.08 | |
Bold values represent statistically significant results
MVI, microvascular invasion; SHR, sub-distribution hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval.
Multivariate logistic regression analysis for prediction of MVI in patients undergoing LT for HCC.
| Tot | MVI | No MVI | Univariate analysis | Multivariate analysis | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds ratio (95% CI) |
| Odds ratio (95% CI) |
| ||||
| Overall | 159 (100) | 31 (19.5) | 128 (80.5) | ||||
| Age >60 (%) | 81 (50.9) | 14 (17.3) | 67 (82.7) | 0.74 (0.34–1.64) | 0.47 | ||
| BMI >30 (%) | 37 (23.2) | 27 (73) | 10 (27) | 1.78 (0.74–4.22) | 0.17 | ||
| Cirrhosis etiology (%) | |||||||
| HCV | 55 (34) | 6 (11) | 49 (89) | 0.38 (0.14–1.02) | 0.10 | ||
| HBV | 10 (6) | 3 (30) | 7 (70) | 1.85 (0.45–7.61) | 0.28 | ||
| Alcoholic | 75 (47) | 14 (18.6) | 61 (81.4) | 0.90 (0.41–1.98) | 0.74 | ||
| NASH | 11 (7) | 2 (18.2) | 9 (81.8) | 0.91 (0.18–4.44) | 0.95 | ||
| Other | 8 (6) | 3 (37.5) | 5 (62.5) | 2.63 (0.59–11.6) | 0.13 | ||
| Waiting time, mean (SD) | 6.78 (±5.75) | 7.07 (±5.77) | 7.38 (±5.79) | 1.003 (0.96–1.04) | 0.78 | ||
| No treatments during waiting time (%) | 40 (25.1) | 10 (25) | 30 (75) | 1.55 (0.66–3.66) | 0.31 | ||
| Tumor size >30 mm (%) | 17 (10.7) | 6 (35) | 11 (65) |
|
| 1.49 (0.39–5.7) | 0.18 |
| Tumor nodules pre-LT ≥3 (%) | 53 (33.3) | 10 (19) | 43 (81) | 0.94 (0.40–2.17) | 0.30 | ||
| Child- Turgot- Pugh (%) | |||||||
| A | 79 (49.6) | 18 (22.7) | 61 (77.7) | 1.52 (0.68–3.36) | 0.29 | ||
| B | 52 (32.7) | 7 (13.4) | 45 (86.6) | 0.53 (0.21–1.34) | 0.18 | ||
| C | 28 (17.6) | 6 (21.5) | 22 (78.5) | 1.15 (0.42–3.15) | 0.77 | ||
| MELD, median (IQR) | 11 (±9) | 11 (±6) | 11 (±9) | 0.97 (0.90–1.04) | 0.42 | ||
| AFP pre-LT ng/ml, median (range) | 6.65 (1–1,170) | 12.7 (1.2–1,170) | 5.3 (1–373) |
|
| 1.03 (0.98–1.05) | 0.34 |
| Within Milan criteria (%) | 114 (71.6) | 19 (16.6) | 98 (83.4) |
|
| 0.17 (0.01–1.18) | 0.21 |
| Delta AFP SCORE progression | 34 (21.3) | 18 (53) | 16 (47) |
|
|
|
|
Bold values represent statistically significant results
BMI, body mass index; HCV, hepatitis C virus; HBV, hepatitis B virus; NASH, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis; LT, liver transplantation; MELD, model for end stage liver Disease; AFP, alpha fetoprotein; MVI, microvascular invasion. OR, odds ratio; CI, confidence interval. Variables with p-value <0.10 underwent multivariate analysis.
FIGURE 2(A) Overall survival and (B) competing risk regression for HCC recurrence of patients with and without delta AFP SCORE progression.