| Literature DB >> 30571497 |
Stacy Y Chu1, Margueritte Cox2, Gregg C Fonarow3, Eric E Smith4, Lee Schwamm5, Deepak L Bhatt6, Roland A Matsouaka2, Ying Xian2,7, Kevin N Sheth8.
Abstract
Background There is disagreement in the literature about the relationship between strokes and seasonal conditions. We sought to (1) describe seasonal patterns of stroke in the United States, and (2) determine the relationship between weather variables and stroke outcomes. Methods and Results We performed a cross-sectional study using Get With The Guidelines-Stroke data from 896 hospitals across the continental United States. We examined effects of season, climate region, and climate variables on stroke outcomes. We identified 457 638 patients admitted from 2011 to 2015 with ischemic stroke. There was a higher frequency of admissions in winter (116 862 in winter versus 113 689 in spring, 113 569 in summer, and 113 518 in fall; P<0.0001). Winter was associated with higher odds of in-hospital mortality (odds ratio [OR] 1.08 relative to spring, confidence interval [ CI ] 1.04-1.13, P=0.0004) and lower odds of discharge home ( OR 0.92, CI 0.91-0.94, P<0.0001) or independent ambulation at discharge ( OR 0.96, CI 0.94-0.98, P=0.0006). These differences were attenuated after adjusting for climate region and case mix and became inconsistent after controlling for weather variables. Temperature and precipitation were independently associated with outcome after multivariable analysis, with increases in temperature and precipitation associated with lower odds of mortality ( OR 0.95, CI 0.93-0.97, P<0.0001 and OR 0.95, CI 0.90-1.00, P=0.035, respectively). Conclusions Admissions for ischemic stroke were more frequent in the winter. Warmer and wetter weather conditions were independently associated with better outcomes. Further studies should aim to identify sensitive populations and inform public health measures aimed at resource allocation, readiness, and adaptive strategies.Entities:
Keywords: cerebrovascular disease; environment; epidemiology; ischemic stroke; seasonal variation
Mesh:
Year: 2018 PMID: 30571497 PMCID: PMC6404452 DOI: 10.1161/JAHA.118.010020
Source DB: PubMed Journal: J Am Heart Assoc ISSN: 2047-9980 Impact factor: 5.501
Figure 1Climate regions of the United States, as defined by the National Climatic Data Center. The number of included Get With The Guidelines sites in each region are labeled.
Baseline Characteristics of Ischemic Stroke Patients on Admission, by Season
| Variables | Spring | Summer | Fall | Winter |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Admissions (%) | 113 689 (24.8) | 113 569 (24.8) | 113 518 (24.8) | 116 862 (25.5) | <0.0001 |
| Female (%) | 57 988 (51.0) | 57 781 (50.9) | 58 542 (51.6) | 59 525 (50.9) | 0.003 |
| Mean age (SD) | 72 (14.8) | 71 (14.9) | 72 (14.8) | 72 (14.8) | <0.0001 |
| Race (%) | 0.06 | ||||
| White | 79 500 (70.0) | 79 201 (69.9) | 79 543 (70.2) | 81 822 (70.2) | |
| Black | 18 871 (16.6) | 18 871 (16.6) | 18 642 (16.5) | 19 138 (16.4) | |
| Hispanic | 8024 (7.1) | 8109 (7.2) | 7977 (7.0) | 8044 (6.9) | |
| Asian | 3207 (2.8) | 3290 (2.9) | 3226 (2.9) | 3533 (3.0) | |
| Other | 3907 (3.4) | 3917 (3.5) | 3932 (3.5) | 4086 (3.5) | |
| Missing | 180 (0.2) | 181 (0.2) | 198 (0.2) | 239 (0.2) | |
| Insurance (%) | <0.0001 | ||||
| Self‐pay | 6931 (7.2) | 7147 (7.3) | 6670 (6.9) | 6575 (6.6) | |
| Medicare | 36 877 (38.0) | 36 597 (37.5) | 36 379 (37.5) | 37 597 (37.9) | |
| Medicaid | 9643 (10.0) | 10 062 (10.3) | 9699 (10.0) | 9865 (10.0) | |
| Other | 43 479 (44.9) | 43 902 (44.9) | 44 215 (45.6) | 45 078 (45.5) | |
| Missing | 16 759 (14.7) | 15 861 (14.0) | 16 555 (14.6) | 17 747 (15.2) | |
| Arrival by emergency medical services (%) | 58 353 (56.3) | 58 548 (56.3) | 61 168 (57.6) | 63 627 (58.4) | <0.0001 |
| Mean minutes to arrival | 498 | 499 | 497 | 511 | <0.0001 |
| Mean NIHSS | 6.1 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 6.2 | <0.0001 |
| Independently ambulatory on admission (%) | 31 185 (44.3) | 31 028 (44.6) | 29 895 (43.4) | 29 901 (42.8) | <0.0001 |
| Atrial fibrillation/flutter (%) | 19 311 (17.0) | 18 863 (16.6) | 19 894 (17.5) | 20 632 (17.7) | <0.0001 |
| Prosthetic heart valve (%) | 1284 (1.1) | 1257 (1.1) | 1257 (1.1) | 1296 (1.1) | 0.95 |
| Coronary artery disease (%) | 24 953 (22.0) | 24 645 (21.7) | 24 850 (21.9) | 25 472 (21.8) | 0.50 |
| Carotid stenosis (%) | 2844 (2.5) | 2668 (2.4) | 2783 (2.5) | 2929 (2.5) | 0.05 |
| Diabetes mellitus (%) | 35 256 (31.0) | 35 175 (31.0) | 34 980 (30.8) | 36 398 (31.2) | 0.39 |
| Peripheral vascular disease (%) | 4560 (4.0) | 4327 (3.8) | 4408 (3.9) | 4715 (4.0) | 0.02 |
| Hypertension (%) | 83 766 (73.7) | 83 056 (73.1) | 83 588 (73.6) | 86 054 (73.6) | 0.01 |
| Smoker (%) | 21 257 (18.7) | 21 852 (19.2) | 20 734 (18.3) | 21 123 (18.1) | <0.0001 |
| Dyslipidemia (%) | 47 378 (41.7) | 46 840 (41.2) | 47 123 (41.5) | 48 613 (41.6) | 0.18 |
| Heart failure (%) | 9259 (8.1) | 9195 (8.1) | 9324 (8.2) | 9736 (8.3) | 0.19 |
NIHSS indicates National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale.
P values indicate differences in frequency distributions across levels that include levels not shown here, such as 25th percentile, 75th percentile, median, standard deviation, minimum, and maximum.
Climate Variables (7‐Day Average Before Admissiona), by Season
| Variables | Spring | Summer | Fall | Winter |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean precipitation, mm | 3.19 | 3.26 | 2.59 | 2.34 | <0.0001 |
| Mean snowfall, mm | 0.72 | 0.00 | 1.60 | 7.80 | <0.0001 |
| Minimum temperature, °C | 11.00 | 18.70 | 7.10 | −0.20 | <0.0001 |
| Maximum temperature, °C | 22.30 | 29.60 | 17.40 | 10.10 | <0.0001 |
Climate data measured on the day of admission, not shown here, showed similar distributions to those averaged over 7 days.
P values indicate differences in frequency distributions across levels that include levels not shown here, such as 25th percentile, 75th percentile, median, standard deviation, minimum, and maximum.
Association of Outcomes With Season and Weather Variables
| Variables | Model | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unadjusted | Adjusted for Patient and Hospital | Adjusted for Patient, Hospital, NIHSS | Adjusted for Patient and Hospital, NIHSS, | |||||
| OR (95% CI) |
| OR (95% CI) |
| OR (95% CI) |
| OR (95% CI) |
| |
| Outcome: mortality | ||||||||
| Spring (ref) | 1.00 | ··· | 1.00 | ··· | 1.00 | ··· | 1.00 | ··· |
| Summer | 0.95 (0.91–0.99) | 0.015 | 0.95 (0.91–0.99) | 0.023 | 0.95 (0.91–0.99) | 0.013 | 1.01 (0.95–1.07) | 0.814 |
| Fall | 1.03 (0.99–1.08) | 0.136 | 1.00 (0.96–1.05) | 0.824 | 1.00 (0.96–1.04) | 0.999 | 0.93 (0.88–0.98) | 0.008 |
| Winter | 1.08 (1.04–1.13) | 0.0004 | 1.04 (1.00–1.08) | 0.072 | 1.04 (1.00–1.08) | 0.058 | 0.89 (0.83–0.95) | 0.0004 |
| Precipitation | 0.95 (0.91–0.99) | 0.010 | ··· | ··· | ··· | ··· | 0.95 (0.90–1.00) | 0.035 |
| Min Temp | 0.96 (0.95–0.97) | <0.0001 | ··· | ··· | ··· | ··· | 0.95 (0.93–0.97) | <0.001 |
| Outcome: discharge home | ||||||||
| Spring (ref) | 1.00 | ··· | 1.00 | ··· | 1.00 | ··· | 1.00 | ··· |
| Summer | 1.02 (1.01–1.04) | 0.004 | 1.02 (1.00–1.04) | 0.019 | 1.01 (0.99–1.03) | 0.280 | 1.00 (0.97–1.03) | 0.817 |
| Fall | 0.96 (0.94–0.97) | <0.0001 | 0.98 (0.96–1.00) | 0.030 | 0.96 (0.94–0.98) | 0.0004 | 1.00 (0.98–1.03) | 0.746 |
| Winter | 0.92 (0.91–0.94) | <0.0001 | 0.95 (0.93–0.97) | <0.0001 | 0.93 (0.91–0.95) | <0.0001 | 1.00 (0.97–1.04) | 0.984 |
| Precipitation | 1.01 (0.99–1.03) | 0.205 | ··· | ··· | ··· | ··· | 1.01 (0.99–1.02) | 0.318 |
| Min Temp | 1.03 (1.03–1.03) | <0.0001 | ··· | ··· | ··· | ··· | 1.02 (1.01–1.04) | <0.001 |
| Outcome: independent ambulation at discharge | ||||||||
| Spring (ref) | 1.00 | ··· | 1.00 | ··· | 1.00 | ··· | 1.00 | ··· |
| Summer | 1.05 (1.03–1.07) | <0.0001 | 1.05 (1.03–1.08) | <0.001 | 1.04 (1.02–1.07) | 0.001 | 1.04 (0.99–1.10) | 0.096 |
| Fall | 1.00 (0.98–1.03) | 0.891 | 1.03 (1.01–1.06) | 0.013 | 1.02 (0.99–1.05) | 0.114 | 1.06 (1.03–1.10) | 0.001 |
| Winter | 0.96 (0.94–0.98) | 0.0006 | 0.99 (0.97–1.02) | 0.615 | 0.97 (0.94–1.00) | 0.044 | 1.03 (0.97–1.09) | 0.385 |
| Precipitation | 1.00 (0.99–1.02) | 0.636 | ··· | ··· | ··· | ··· | 1.03 (0.99–1.06) | 0.117 |
| Min Temp | 1.02 (1.01–1.03) | <0.0001 | ··· | ··· | ··· | ··· | 1.01 (0.99–1.03) | 0.382 |
CI indicates confidence interval; Min Temp, minimum temperature; NIHSS, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale; OR, odds ratio.
Models where NIHSS was imputed (not shown) showed similar results as the complete case analysis (shown).
Models where daily maximum temperature was substituted for daily minimum temperature gave similar results.
Precipitation: per additional 10 mm; Minimum temperature: per additional 5°C.
Figure 2Odds ratios for mortality in each climate region relative to the Northeast, calculated from the model that adjusted for patient and hospital characteristics and National Institute of Health Stroke Severity score, not weather.