| Literature DB >> 30459145 |
Marie-Laure Kürzinger1, Stéphane Schück2, Nathalie Texier2, Redhouane Abdellaoui3, Carole Faviez3, Julie Pouget4, Ling Zhang5, Stéphanie Tcherny-Lessenot1, Stephen Lin5, Juhaeri Juhaeri6.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: While traditional signal detection methods in pharmacovigilance are based on spontaneous reports, the use of social media is emerging. The potential strength of Web-based data relies on their volume and real-time availability, allowing early detection of signals of disproportionate reporting (SDRs).Entities:
Keywords: adverse event; internet; medical forums; pharmacovigilance; signal detection; signals of disproportionate reporting; social media
Mesh:
Year: 2018 PMID: 30459145 PMCID: PMC6280030 DOI: 10.2196/10466
Source DB: PubMed Journal: J Med Internet Res ISSN: 1438-8871 Impact factor: 5.428
Figure 1Extraction methodology and data preparation for analysis. AE: adverse events; AERS: Adverse Events Reporting System.
Definition of disproportionate signals.
| Metric | Definition of disproportionate signal |
| Empirical Bayes Geometric Mean (EBGM) | EBGM≥2 |
| Empirical Bayes Geometric Mean (EBGM) | EBGM≥4 |
| Lower bound of the 95% CI of EBGM (EB05) | EB05≥2 |
| Proportional Reporting Ratio (PRR) | PRR≥2, |
| Lower bound of the 95% CI of PRR (PRR025) | PRR025≥1 |
| Lower bound of the 95% CI of the Reporting Odds Ratio (ROR025) | ROR025≥1 |
| Lower bound of the 95% CI of the Information Component (IC025) | IC025=0 |
| Reporting Fisher’s Exact Test (RFET) | RFET |
Signals: two-by-two contingency table for a combination of positive and negative signals from medical forums and VigiBase to measure performance.
| Signals from medical forums | Signals from VigiBase | Total | |
| Positive | Negative | ||
| Positive | a (true positive) | b (false positive) | M1 |
| Negative | c (false negative) | d (true negative) | M2 |
| Total | N1 | N2 | N |
Performance indicators.
| Performance indicators | Value |
| Sensitivity (true positive rate) | |
| Specificity (true negative rate) | |
| Positive predictive value | |
| Negative predictive value | |
| Accuracy | ( |
Figure 2Flowchart for the 3 drugs and the other 327 drugs (comparison group). AE: adverse events.
Figure 3Time periods covered by VigiBase and the forums database and the number of drug-event pairs overlap, as well as pairs overlap with at least 2 messages (smallest circle).
The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy among 422 drug-event pairs.
| Definition | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | Positive predictive value (%) | Negative predictive value (%) | Accuracy (%) |
| EB05a≥2 | 29.0 | 95.5 | 62.5 | 84.0 | 82.0 |
| EBGMb≥2 | 48.2 | 89.3 | 62.5 | 82.3 | 78.2 |
| EBGM≥4 | 39.6 | 94.6 | 51.2 | 91.6 | 87.7 |
| PRRc≥2, | 31.9 | 94.0 | 67.9 | 77.9 | 76.5 |
| Lower 95% CI of PRR≥1 | 37.3 | 87.5 | 64.1 | 70.0 | 68.7 |
| Lower 95% CI of ROR≥1 | 37.0 | 87.9 | 66.3 | 68.5 | 68.0 |
| IC025d>0 | 33.3 | 94.2 | 75.4 | 72.5 | 73.0 |
| RFETe: | 50.6 | 86.1 | 68.1 | 74.8 | 73.0 |
aEB05: Lower bound of the 90% CI of empirical Bayes geometric mean.
bEBGM: empirical Bayes geometric mean.
cPRR: Proportional Reporting Ratio.
dIC025: Lower bound of the 95% CI of the information component.
eRFET: Reporting Fisher’s Exact Test.
The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy among 275 drug-event pairs.
| Definition | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | Positive predictive value (%) | Negative predictive value (%) | Accuracy (%) |
| EB05a≥2 | 39.1 | 93.4 | 64.1 | 83.5 | 80.7 |
| EBGMb≥2 | 49.4 | 88.5 | 65.1 | 80.2 | 76.7 |
| EBGM≥4 | 51.2 | 92.3 | 53.9 | 91.5 | 86.2 |
| PRRc≥2, | 44.2 | 91.5 | 70.4 | 78.3 | 76.7 |
| Lower 95% CI of PRR≥1 | 48.3 | 88.7 | 75.7 | 70.2 | 71.6 |
| Lower 95% CI of ROR≥1 | 47.1 | 88.5 | 75.7 | 68.7 | 70.6 |
| IC025d>0 | 45.8 | 91.1 | 76.6 | 72.5 | 73.5 |
| RFETe: | 56.5 | 86.9 | 75.6 | 73.6 | 74.2 |
aEB05: Lower bound of the 90% CI of empirical Bayes geometric mean.
bEBGM: empirical Bayes geometric mean.
cPRR: Proportional Reporting Ratio.
dIC025: Lower bound of the 95% CI of the information component.
eRFET: Reporting Fisher’s Exact Test.
Figure 4The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves and area under the curve applying empirical Bayes geometric mean (EBGM)≥4 in the VigiBase and EBGM in the forums.
The time difference in months of signals detection dates (∆time) between patients’ forums and VigiBase.
| Definition | ∆timea<0, n (%) | ∆timea=0, n (%) | ∆timea>0, n (%) | Total number of pairs, n (%) |
| PRRb≥2, | 15 (25.4) | 3 (5.1) | 41 (69.5) | 59 (100) |
| EB05c≥2 | 10 (32.3) | 3 (9.7) | 18 (58.1) | 31 (100) |
| EBGMd≥2 | 22 (26.5) | 4 (4.8) | 57 (68.7) | 83 (100) |
| EBGM≥4 | 12 (37.5) | 4 (12.5) | 16 (50) | 32 (100) |
| IC025e>0 | 13 (21.3) | 3 (4.9) | 45 (73.8) | 61 (100) |
| Lower 95% CI of PRR≥1 | 29 (32.6) | 5 (5.6) | 55 (61.8) | 89 (100) |
| Lower 95% CI of ROR≥1 | 29 (32.2) | 5 (5.6) | 56 (62.2) | 90 (100) |
| RFETf: | 34 (30.6) | 7 (6.3) | 70 (63.1) | 111 (100) |
a∆time: detection date in patients’ forums−detection date in VigiBase.
bPRR: Proportional Reporting Ratio
cEB05: Lower bound of the 90% CI of empirical Bayes geometric mean.
dEBGM: empirical Bayes geometric mean.
eIC025: Lower bound of the 95% CI of the information component.
fRFET, Reporting Fisher’s Exact Test.