Yong Chen1, Tian-Wu Chen1, Chang-Qiang Wu2, Qiao Lin1, Ran Hu1, Chao-Lian Xie1, Hou-Dong Zuo1, Jia-Long Wu3, Qi-Wen Mu4, Quan-Shui Fu5, Guo-Qing Yang5, Xiao Ming Zhang6. 1. Sichuan Key Laboratory of Medical Imaging and Department of Radiology, Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College, No. 63, Wenhua Road, Nanchong, 637000, Sichuan, China. 2. Sichuan Key Laboratory of Medical Imaging and School of Medical Imaging, North Sichuan Medical College, Nanchong, Sichuan, China. 3. Department of Radiology, The Second Clinical Medical College of North Sichuan Medical College Nanchong Central Hospital, Nanchong, Sichuan, China. 4. Department of Medical Imaging & Imaging Institute of Rehabilitation and Development of Brain Function, The Second Clinical Medical College of North Sichuan Medical College Nanchong Central Hospital, Nanchong, Sichuan, China. 5. Department of Radiology, Suining Central Hospital, Suining, Sichuan, China. 6. Sichuan Key Laboratory of Medical Imaging and Department of Radiology, Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College, No. 63, Wenhua Road, Nanchong, 637000, Sichuan, China. zhangxm@nsmc.edu.cn.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To predict the recurrence of acute pancreatitis (AP) by constructing a radiomics model of contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) at AP first attack. METHODS: We retrospectively enrolled 389 first-attack AP patients (271 in the primary cohort and 118 in the validation cohort) from three tertiary referral centers; 126 and 55 patients endured recurrent attacks in each cohort. Four hundred twelve radiomics features were extracted from arterial and venous phase CECT images, and clinical characteristics were gathered to develop a clinical model. An optimal radiomics signature was chosen using a multivariable logistic regression or support vector machine. The radiomics model was developed and validated by incorporating the optimal radiomics signature and clinical characteristics. The performance of the radiomics model was assessed based on its calibration and classification metrics. RESULTS: The optimal radiomics signature was developed based on a multivariable logistic regression with 10 radiomics features. The classification accuracy of the radiomics model well predicted the recurrence of AP for both the primary and validation cohorts (87.1% and 89.0%, respectively). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the radiomics model was significantly better than that of the clinical model for both the primary (0.941 vs. 0.712, p = 0.000) and validation (0.929 vs. 0.671, p = 0.000) cohorts. Good calibration was observed for all the models (p > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The radiomics model based on CECT performed well in predicting AP recurrence. As a quantitative method, radiomics exhibits promising performance in terms of alerting recurrent patients to potential precautions. KEY POINTS: • The incidence of recurrence after an initial episode of acute pancreatitis is high, and quantitative methods for predicting recurrence are lacking. • The radiomics model based on contrast-enhanced computed tomography performed well in predicting the recurrence of acute pancreatitis. • As a quantitative method, radiomics exhibits promising performance in terms of alerting recurrent patients to the potential need to take precautions.
OBJECTIVES: To predict the recurrence of acute pancreatitis (AP) by constructing a radiomics model of contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CECT) at AP first attack. METHODS: We retrospectively enrolled 389 first-attack AP patients (271 in the primary cohort and 118 in the validation cohort) from three tertiary referral centers; 126 and 55 patients endured recurrent attacks in each cohort. Four hundred twelve radiomics features were extracted from arterial and venous phase CECT images, and clinical characteristics were gathered to develop a clinical model. An optimal radiomics signature was chosen using a multivariable logistic regression or support vector machine. The radiomics model was developed and validated by incorporating the optimal radiomics signature and clinical characteristics. The performance of the radiomics model was assessed based on its calibration and classification metrics. RESULTS: The optimal radiomics signature was developed based on a multivariable logistic regression with 10 radiomics features. The classification accuracy of the radiomics model well predicted the recurrence of AP for both the primary and validation cohorts (87.1% and 89.0%, respectively). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the radiomics model was significantly better than that of the clinical model for both the primary (0.941 vs. 0.712, p = 0.000) and validation (0.929 vs. 0.671, p = 0.000) cohorts. Good calibration was observed for all the models (p > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The radiomics model based on CECT performed well in predicting AP recurrence. As a quantitative method, radiomics exhibits promising performance in terms of alerting recurrent patients to potential precautions. KEY POINTS: • The incidence of recurrence after an initial episode of acute pancreatitis is high, and quantitative methods for predicting recurrence are lacking. • The radiomics model based on contrast-enhanced computed tomography performed well in predicting the recurrence of acute pancreatitis. • As a quantitative method, radiomics exhibits promising performance in terms of alerting recurrent patients to the potential need to take precautions.
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