Long-term prognosis of acute pancreatitis in Japan.

This study was undertaken to evaluate the long-term prognosis of acute pancreatitis (AP) in Japan and to identify factors that predict major complications. In 1987, 2533 patients with moderate or severe acute pancreatitis were registered in a national survey in Japan. Follow-up studies were done in 2000 and in 2004 to evaluate recurrence of acute pancreatitis, transition to chronic pancreatitis, development of diabetes mellitus, and mortality. The relationship between incidence of complications and alcohol consumption during follow-up period was also analyzed. Valid replies were obtained from 714 cases in 2000 and 450 cases in 2004. Recurrence of acute pancreatitis occurred in 145 cases, and the recurrence rate was significantly higher in alcoholic pancreatitis compared with other etiologies. A transition to chronic pancreatitis occurred frequently in alcoholic pancreatitis and inversely correlated with existence of pancreatic necrosis in the initial disease. Complication with diabetes mellitus and the transition to chronic pancreatitis strongly correlated with persistent alcohol intake during follow-up period. During the follow-up period, 199 patients died, and 43 died of malignant disease. Recurrence of acute pancreatitis and a transition to chronic pancreatitis frequently occurred in alcoholic pancreatitis. Transition to chronic pancreatitis was inversely correlated with the existence of pancreatic necrosis at the initial presentation. Mortality as a result of malignant disease was not excessive in the patients with history of acute pancreatitis.