| Literature DB >> 30386557 |
C E Timothy Paine1,2, Charles W Fox3.
Abstract
Academic publishers purport to be arbiters of knowledge, aiming to publish studies that advance the frontiers of their research domain. Yet the effectiveness of journal editors at identifying novel and important research is generally unknown, in part because of the confidential nature of the editorial and peer review process. Using questionnaires, we evaluated the degree to which journals are effective arbiters of scientific impact on the domain of Ecology, quantified by three key criteria. First, journals discriminated against low-impact manuscripts: The probability of rejection increased as the number of citations gained by the published paper decreased. Second, journals were more likely to publish high-impact manuscripts (those that obtained citations in 90th percentile for their journal) than run-of-the-mill manuscripts; editors were only 23% and 41% as likely to reject an eventual high-impact paper (pre- versus postreview rejection) compared to a run-of-the-mill paper. Third, editors did occasionally reject papers that went on to be highly cited. Error rates were low, however: Only 3.8% of rejected papers gained more citations than the median article in the journal that rejected them, and only 9.2% of rejected manuscripts went on to be high-impact papers in the (generally lower impact factor) publishing journal. The effectiveness of scientific arbitration increased with journal prominence, although some highly prominent journals were no more effective than much less prominent ones. We conclude that the academic publishing system, founded on peer review, appropriately recognizes the significance of research contained in manuscripts, as measured by the number of citations that manuscripts obtain after publication, even though some errors are made. We therefore recommend that authors reduce publication delays by choosing journals appropriate to the significance of their research.Entities:
Keywords: authorship; citations; manuscript; peer review; publishing; rejection
Year: 2018 PMID: 30386557 PMCID: PMC6202707 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.4467
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Ecol Evol ISSN: 2045-7758 Impact factor: 2.912
Figure 1A summary of time to acceptance and number of journals to which manuscripts were submitted. Points are scaled to the number of manuscripts in each category, which is also represented numerically. Distributions are truncated to six journals and six years for presentation. Histograms at the top and right summarize the univariate distributions
Summary of metrics used to assess the effectiveness of journals as scientific arbiters. Although this study focuses on studies published in 146 journals in the domain of ecology, some analyses included more journals, as many of the studies we examined had been rejected from journals outside that set
| Metric | Formula |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
| Performance ratio |
| 450 | 3,594 |
| Gatekeeping ratio |
| 443 | 3,525 |
| Rejection ratio |
| 98 | 2,236 |
| Proportion of rejected manuscripts that became that obtained more citations than the median paper in the rejecting journal |
| 310 | 3,160 |
| Proportion of rejected manuscripts that became high‐impact papers in the publishing journal |
| 142 | 3,778 |
j: publishing journal; k: rejecting journal; y: publishing year; mss: manuscripts.
Figure 2Manuscripts that are rejected from one journal and resubmitted to another tend to gain fewer citations than those accepted at the first journal to which they were submitted (i.e., “first intents”). The “performance ratio” of resubmitted manuscripts was lowest for manuscripts sent to journals of a greater impact factor than the original journal. The shaded region highlights manuscripts that were resubmitted to a journal of similar JIF to that from which they were rejected. Mean estimates are shown with 95% confidence intervals, obtained by parametric bootstrapping. Points indicate the mean performance ratio for each rejecting journal and are sized according to the number of manuscripts rejected by each journal in each category. Selected prominent journals are indicated with colored symbols. The number of manuscripts in each percentage change category is shown. All groups differ significantly in performance ratio (Tukey's honest significant difference, p ≤ 0.0051)
Figure 3The effectiveness of journals as scientific arbiters, as measured through the “gatekeeping ratio,” increased with the impact factor (JIF) of the rejecting journal. Each point is one journal mean, with point size scaled to the number of manuscripts evaluated. Regression lines are shown with 95% confidence intervals. The solid line indicates rejected manuscripts resubmitted to journals with JIF half of the rejecting journal, whereas the dashed line indicates rejected manuscripts resubmitted to journals with JIF twice that of the rejecting journal. The horizontal dotted line indicates a gatekeeping ratio of 1.0, meaning that rejected manuscripts obtain the same number of citations as the average paper in their publishing journal
Figure 4Most journals were more likely to reject run‐of‐the‐mill manuscripts than high‐impact manuscripts. High‐impact manuscripts are defined as the 10% of manuscripts that obtained the most citations in each individual journal, and run‐of‐the‐mill manuscripts are the remaining 90%. Mean estimates are shown with 95% confidence intervals, obtained by parametric bootstrapping. Each point represents a journal, with point sizes scaled by the number of manuscripts evaluated
Figure 5Sensitivity to high‐impact research, as measured through the “rejection ratio,” increased with journal impact factor (JIF) and was greater before review (i.e., desk rejection; solid line and uptriangular points) than postreview (dashed line and downtriangular points). Each point represents one journal mean and is sized according to the number of manuscripts evaluated at each editorial stage. Regression lines are derived from a linear model, which was weighted by the number of manuscripts evaluated by each journal and are shown with 95% confidence intervals. Horizontal dotted line indicates a rejection ratio of 1.0, corresponding to journals that are equally likely to reject “high‐impact” and “run‐of‐the‐mill” manuscripts
Figure 6The frequency of mistaken rejections per journal, as assessed by (a) the proportion of rejected manuscripts that attain more citations than the median article in the rejecting journal or (b) the proportion of rejected manuscripts that go on to be high‐impact papers in the publishing journal. Each point represents one journal mean and is scaled according to the number of manuscripts evaluated. Mean estimates are shown with 95% confidence intervals, obtained by parametric bootstrapping. Note that in panel A, the y‐axis is on a log scale, and points are slightly jittered to improve visualization
| Importance | Prestige of journal | Alignment of journal with the topic of manuscript | Impact factor of journal | Open‐access policy of journal | Suggestion of journal editor or reviewer | Suggestion of academic supervisor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extremely | ||||||
| Very | ||||||
| Moderately | ||||||
| Slightly | ||||||
| Not at all |
| Agreement | Publishing this manuscript was challenging | Comments from peer reviewers improved the manuscript | Comments from editors improved the manuscript | The published article was of higher quality than the initial manuscript |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strongly agree | ||||
| Agree | ||||
| Somewhat agree | ||||
| Neither agree nor disagree | ||||
| Somewhat disagree | ||||
| Disagree | ||||
| Strongly disagree |
Overview of the 146 journals classified by Web of Science in the research domain of ecology. We present the number of manuscripts examined, the overall rejection percentage, the percentage of rejection before review (desk rejection), and rejection after review, calculated from author responses to our survey. We also present the performance of each journal in terms of our four metrics scientific arbitration. Empty cells indicate journals for which too few data were available to calculate the relevant statistic
| Journal | 2015 Impact factor | N mss submitted | Rejection rate (%) | Rejection ratio | Rejection mistakes | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | Prereview | Postreview | Gatekeeping ratio | Prereview | Postreview | % mss with | % mss that would have been high flyers in rejecting journal | |||
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mss: manuscripts.