Blossom C M Stephan1, Ratika Birdi1, Eugene Yee Hing Tang1, Theodore D Cosco2,3, Lorenzo M Donini4, Silvan Licher5, M Arfan Ikram5, Mario Siervo6, Louise Robinson1. 1. Newcastle University Institute for Ageing and Institute of Health and Society, Newcastle University, UK. 2. Gerontology Research Centre, Simon Fraser University, Canada. 3. Oxford Institute of Population Ageing, University of Oxford, UK. 4. Department of Experimental Medicine, Medical Pathophysiology, Food Science and Endocrinology Section, Food Science and Human Nutrition Research Unit, Sapienza University of Rome, Italy. 5. Department of Epidemiology, Erasmus MC - University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands. 6. Human Nutrition Research Centre, Institute of Cellular Medicine, Newcastle University, UK.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Time trends for dementia prevalence and incidence rates have been reported over the past seven decades in different countries and some have reported a decline. OBJECTIVE: To undertake a systematic review to critically appraise and provide an evidence-based summary of the magnitude and direction of the global changes in dementia prevalence and incidence across time. METHODS: Medline, EMBASE, and PsychINFO were searched for studies focused on secular trends in dementia prevalence and/or incidence until 18 December 2017. In total, 10,992 articles were identified and 43 retained. RESULTS: Overall, prevalence rates are largely increasing (evidence primarily from record-based surveys and cohort studies in Japan, Canada, and France) or have remained stable (evidence primarily from cohort studies in Sweden, Spain and China). A significant decline in prevalence has however been reported in more recent studies (i.e., from 2010 onwards) from Europe (e.g., UK and Sweden) and the USA. Incidence rates have generally remained stable or decreased in China, Canada, France, Germany, Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, UK, and USA. An increase has only been reported in five countries: Italy, Japan, Wales, Germany, and the Netherlands. Only one study reported findings (stability in incidence) from a low and middle-income country using data from Nigeria. CONCLUSIONS: The evidence on secular trends in the prevalence and incidence of dementia is mixed including contradictory findings using different (and in some cases the same) datasets in some countries (e.g., the USA, UK, and Sweden). This making it difficult to draw concrete conclusions. However, declining trends recently observed in some high-income Western countries in the most recent two decades including the UK, USA, and Sweden are encouraging. Updated dementia prevalence and incidence estimates will inform public health and financial planning as well as development of prevention strategies.
BACKGROUND: Time trends for dementia prevalence and incidence rates have been reported over the past seven decades in different countries and some have reported a decline. OBJECTIVE: To undertake a systematic review to critically appraise and provide an evidence-based summary of the magnitude and direction of the global changes in dementia prevalence and incidence across time. METHODS: Medline, EMBASE, and PsychINFO were searched for studies focused on secular trends in dementia prevalence and/or incidence until 18 December 2017. In total, 10,992 articles were identified and 43 retained. RESULTS: Overall, prevalence rates are largely increasing (evidence primarily from record-based surveys and cohort studies in Japan, Canada, and France) or have remained stable (evidence primarily from cohort studies in Sweden, Spain and China). A significant decline in prevalence has however been reported in more recent studies (i.e., from 2010 onwards) from Europe (e.g., UK and Sweden) and the USA. Incidence rates have generally remained stable or decreased in China, Canada, France, Germany, Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, UK, and USA. An increase has only been reported in five countries: Italy, Japan, Wales, Germany, and the Netherlands. Only one study reported findings (stability in incidence) from a low and middle-income country using data from Nigeria. CONCLUSIONS: The evidence on secular trends in the prevalence and incidence of dementia is mixed including contradictory findings using different (and in some cases the same) datasets in some countries (e.g., the USA, UK, and Sweden). This making it difficult to draw concrete conclusions. However, declining trends recently observed in some high-income Western countries in the most recent two decades including the UK, USA, and Sweden are encouraging. Updated dementia prevalence and incidence estimates will inform public health and financial planning as well as development of prevention strategies.
Authors: Vladimir Hachinski; Karl Einhäupl; Detlev Ganten; Suvarna Alladi; Carol Brayne; Blossom C M Stephan; Melanie D Sweeney; Berislav Zlokovic; Yasser Iturria-Medina; Costantino Iadecola; Nozomi Nishimura; Chris B Schaffer; Shawn N Whitehead; Sandra E Black; Leif Østergaard; Joanna Wardlaw; Steven Greenberg; Leif Friberg; Bo Norrving; Brian Rowe; Yves Joanette; Werner Hacke; Lewis Kuller; Martin Dichgans; Matthias Endres; Zaven S Khachaturian Journal: Alzheimers Dement Date: 2019-07 Impact factor: 21.566
Authors: Holly Q Bennett; Andrew Kingston; Ilianna Lourida; Louise Robinson; Lynne Corner; Carol Brayne; Fiona E Matthews; Carol Jagger Journal: PLoS Med Date: 2022-03-15 Impact factor: 11.613
Authors: Tian Xiao; Sara Renata Alex Wijnant; Isabelle van der Velpen; Natalie Terzikhan; Lies Lahousse; M Kamran Ikram; Meike W Vernooij; Guy G Brusselle; M Arfan Ikram Journal: J Neurol Date: 2022-03-10 Impact factor: 6.682
Authors: Robert H Lustig; David Collier; Christopher Kassotis; Troy A Roepke; Min Ji Kim; Etienne Blanc; Robert Barouki; Amita Bansal; Matthew C Cave; Saurabh Chatterjee; Mahua Choudhury; Michael Gilbertson; Dominique Lagadic-Gossmann; Sarah Howard; Lars Lind; Craig R Tomlinson; Jan Vondracek; Jerrold J Heindel Journal: Biochem Pharmacol Date: 2022-04-05 Impact factor: 6.100
Authors: Melinda C Power; Erin E Bennett; Robert W Turner; N Maritza Dowling; Adam Ciarleglio; M Maria Glymour; Kan Z Gianattasio Journal: JAMA Neurol Date: 2021-03-01 Impact factor: 18.302
Authors: Jee Eun Park; Byung Soo Kim; Ki Woong Kim; Bong Jin Hahm; Jee Hoon Sohn; Hye Won Suk; Jun Young Lee; Maeng Je Cho Journal: J Korean Med Sci Date: 2019-11-18 Impact factor: 2.153
Authors: Connor Richardson; Blossom C M Stephan; Louise Robinson; Carol Brayne; Fiona E Matthews Journal: Eur J Epidemiol Date: 2019-09-05 Impact factor: 8.082