Baptiste Pignon1,2,3,4, Franck Schürhoff1,2,3,4, Grégoire Baudin1,2,3,5, Andrea Tortelli2,3,6, Aziz Ferchiou1,2,3, Ghassen Saba1,3, Jean-Romain Richard2, Antoine Pelissolo1,2,3,4, Marion Leboyer1,2,3,4, Andrei Szöke1,2,3. 1. AP-HP, DHU PePSY, Hôpitaux universitaires Henri-Mondor, Pôle de Psychiatrie, Créteil, France. 2. INSERM, U955, team 15, Créteil, France. 3. Fondation FondaMental, Créteil, France. 4. UPEC, Psychiatry Department, Université Paris-Est, Faculté de médecine, Créteil, France. 5. Université François-Rabelais de Tours, Tours, France. 6. Hôpital Maison Blanche, Paris, France.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Incidence-prevalence-mortality (IPM) models have been developped to estimate incidence or prevalence when one of these two measures is unavailable. We aimed to test the consistency of an IPM model of psychotic disorders on a recent incidence-prevalence couple dataset and to identify potential causes of inconsistency by applying the model to (a) the whole population, (b) female and male subgroups, (c) migrant subgroups, and (d) psychotic disorders with age at onset (AAO) between 18 and 24 (18-24 AAO). METHODS: We modelled prevalence (MP) using incidence data and the expected mortality and remission values. We then compared the MP to the observed prevalence (OP). RESULTS: In the whole population, the model significantly underestimated the prevalence (MP = 3.30, 95% CI [2.97, 3.66]; OP = 4.98, 95% CI [4.58, 5.41]). The results were similar for the two genders. In the migrants group, results were in the opposite direction, the model significantly overestimating the prevalence. Finally, in the 18-24 AAO subgroup, the model performed well, with OP and MP not significantly different. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that standard IPM models do not perform well for psychotic disorders and more complex models taking into account the heterogeneity of the sample (in terms of remission, mortality, population movements, etc.) need to be developed.
OBJECTIVES: Incidence-prevalence-mortality (IPM) models have been developped to estimate incidence or prevalence when one of these two measures is unavailable. We aimed to test the consistency of an IPM model of psychotic disorders on a recent incidence-prevalence couple dataset and to identify potential causes of inconsistency by applying the model to (a) the whole population, (b) female and male subgroups, (c) migrant subgroups, and (d) psychotic disorders with age at onset (AAO) between 18 and 24 (18-24 AAO). METHODS: We modelled prevalence (MP) using incidence data and the expected mortality and remission values. We then compared the MP to the observed prevalence (OP). RESULTS: In the whole population, the model significantly underestimated the prevalence (MP = 3.30, 95% CI [2.97, 3.66]; OP = 4.98, 95% CI [4.58, 5.41]). The results were similar for the two genders. In the migrants group, results were in the opposite direction, the model significantly overestimating the prevalence. Finally, in the 18-24 AAO subgroup, the model performed well, with OP and MP not significantly different. CONCLUSION: These results suggest that standard IPM models do not perform well for psychotic disorders and more complex models taking into account the heterogeneity of the sample (in terms of remission, mortality, population movements, etc.) need to be developed.
Authors: J B Kirkbride; T Croudace; J Brewin; K Donoghue; P Mason; C Glazebrook; I Medley; G Harrison; J E Cooper; G A Doody; P B Jones Journal: Int J Epidemiol Date: 2008-08-25 Impact factor: 7.196
Authors: Hannah E Jongsma; Charlotte Gayer-Anderson; Antonio Lasalvia; Diego Quattrone; Alice Mulè; Andrei Szöke; Jean-Paul Selten; Caitlin Turner; Celso Arango; Ilaria Tarricone; Domenico Berardi; Andrea Tortelli; Pierre-Michel Llorca; Lieuwe de Haan; Julio Bobes; Miguel Bernardo; Julio Sanjuán; José Luis Santos; Manuel Arrojo; Cristina Marta Del-Ben; Paulo Rossi Menezes; Eva Velthorst; Robin M Murray; Bart P Rutten; Peter B Jones; Jim van Os; Craig Morgan; James B Kirkbride Journal: JAMA Psychiatry Date: 2018-01-01 Impact factor: 21.596
Authors: Baptiste Pignon; Franck Schürhoff; Grégoire Baudin; Andrea Tortelli; Aziz Ferchiou; Ghassen Saba; Jean-Romain Richard; Antoine Pelissolo; Marion Leboyer; Andrei Szöke Journal: Int J Methods Psychiatr Res Date: 2018-05-22 Impact factor: 4.035