Prediction of Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy and Radiation Therapy with Baseline and Restaging 18F-FDG PET Imaging Biomarkers in Patients with Esophageal Cancer.

Purpose To assess the value of baseline and restaging fluorine 18 (18F) fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) radiomics in predicting pathologic complete response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy and radiation therapy (NCRT) in patients with locally advanced esophageal cancer. Materials and Methods In this retrospective study, 73 patients with histologic analysis-confirmed T1/N1-3/M0 or T2-4a/N0-3/M0 esophageal cancer were treated with NCRT followed by surgery (Chemoradiotherapy for Esophageal Cancer followed by Surgery Study regimen) between October 2014 and August 2017. Clinical variables and radiomic features from baseline and restaging 18F-FDG PET were selected by univariable logistic regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. The selected variables were used to fit a multivariable logistic regression model, which was internally validated by using bootstrap resampling with 20 000 replicates. The performance of this model was compared with reference prediction models composed of maximum standardized uptake value metrics, clinical variables, and maximum standardized uptake value at baseline NCRT radiomic features. Outcome was defined as complete versus incomplete pathologic response (tumor regression grade 1 vs 2-5 according to the Mandard classification). Results Pathologic response was complete in 16 patients (21.9%) and incomplete in 57 patients (78.1%). A prediction model combining clinical T-stage and restaging NCRT (post-NCRT) joint maximum (quantifying image orderliness) yielded an optimism-corrected area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.81. Post-NCRT joint maximum was replaceable with five other redundant post-NCRT radiomic features that provided equal model performance. All reference prediction models exhibited substantially lower discriminatory accuracy. Conclusion The combination of clinical T-staging and quantitative assessment of post-NCRT 18F-FDG PET orderliness (joint maximum) provided high discriminatory accuracy in predicting pathologic complete response in patients with esophageal cancer. © RSNA, 2018 Online supplemental material is available for this article.