| Literature DB >> 29402264 |
Jonathan S Zager1, Brian R Gastman2, Sancy Leachman3, Rene C Gonzalez4, Martin D Fleming5, Laura K Ferris6, Jonhan Ho7, Alexander R Miller8, Robert W Cook9, Kyle R Covington9, Kristen Meldi-Plasseraud9, Brooke Middlebrook9, Lewis H Kaminester10, Anthony Greisinger11, Sarah I Estrada12, David M Pariser13,14, Lee D Cranmer15, Jane L Messina16, John T Vetto17, Jeffrey D Wayne18,19,20, Keith A Delman21, David H Lawson22, Pedram Gerami23,24.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The heterogeneous behavior of patients with melanoma makes prognostication challenging. To address this, a gene expression profile (GEP) test to predict metastatic risk was previously developed. This study evaluates the GEP's prognostic accuracy in an independent cohort of cutaneous melanoma patients.Entities:
Keywords: Cutaneous melanoma; DecisionDx-Melanoma; Gene expression profiling; Metastasis; Prognosis; Staging
Mesh:
Year: 2018 PMID: 29402264 PMCID: PMC5800282 DOI: 10.1186/s12885-018-4016-3
Source DB: PubMed Journal: BMC Cancer ISSN: 1471-2407 Impact factor: 4.430
Clinical characteristics of the cohort
| Clinical Characteristics | |
|---|---|
| Median age (range), years | 59 (18–92) |
| Median follow-up for patients without a metastatic event, years (range) | 7.5 (5.0–16.5) |
| Recurrence/distant metastasis | 142/111 |
| Median time to first recurrence, years (range) | 1.2 (0.0–10.0) |
| AJCC stage | |
| I (total) | 264 (50%) |
| IA | 108 |
| IB | 76 |
| Unknown substagea | 80 |
| II (total) | 93 (18%) |
| IIA | 35 |
| IIB | 26 |
| IIC | 17 |
| Unknown substage | 15 |
| III (total) | 166 (32%) |
| IIIA | 69 |
| IIIB | 57 |
| IIIC | 35 |
| Unknown substage | 5 |
| Breslow thickness | |
| Median (range), mm | 1.2 (0.1–29.0) |
| ≤ 1 mm | 223 (43%) |
| > 1 mm | 296 (56%) |
| Unreported | 4 (1%) |
| Mitotic index | |
| < 1/mm2 | 99 (19%) |
| ≥ 1/mm2 | 240 (46%) |
| Unreported | 184 (35%) |
| Ulceration | |
| Absent | 309 (59%) |
| Present | 133 (26%) |
| Unreported | 81 (15%) |
| SLN status | |
| Untested | 186 (36%) |
| Negative | 180 (34%) |
| Positive | 157 (30%) |
| GEP Class | |
| Class 1 | 314 (60%) |
| Class 2 | 209 (40%) |
SLN sentinel lymph node, GEP gene expression profile
aSubstage information was not available in clinical documentation for these patients
Fig. 1Gene expression profile class and correlated survival outcomes of the 523 patient cohort. a Recurrence-free, b distant metastasis-free, and c melanoma-specific survival rates for 523 patients using binary classification as indicated by Kaplan-Meier analysis. d Recurrence-free, e distant metastasis-free, and f melanoma-specific survival rates for 523 patients using molecular subclassification. Five-year survival rates, number of specified events, 95% confidence intervals, and percentages of each class experiencing an event are listed in the tables below the curves
Fig. 2Survival outcomes for stage I patients with molecular classification by the 31-gene expression profile test. a Recurrence-free, b distant metastasis-free, and c melanoma-specific survival rates for stage I cases (n = 264) using binary classification as indicated by Kaplan-Meier analysis. d Recurrence-free, e distant metastasis-free, and f melanoma-specific survival rates for 264 stage I cases using molecular subclassification. Five-year survival rates, number of specified events, 95% confidence intervals, and percentages of each class experiencing an event are listed in the tables below the curves
Fig. 3Survival outcomes for stage II patients with molecular classification by the 31-gene expression profile test. a Recurrence-free, b distant metastasis-free, and c melanoma-specific survival rates for stage II cases (n = 93) using binary classification as indicated by Kaplan-Meier analysis. d Recurrence-free, e distant metastasis-free, and f melanoma-specific survival rates for stage II cases using molecular subclassification. Five-year survival rates, number of specified events, 95% confidence intervals, and percentages of each class experiencing an event are listed in the tables below the curves
Distant metastasis according to stage and molecular class in the stage I and II patients
| Stage | Total cases | No Distant Metastasis | With Distant Metastasis | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Class 1 | Class 2 | Total | Class 1 | Class 2 | ||
| Ia/IA/IB | 264 | 251 | 216 | 35 | 13 | 9 | 4 |
| IIa | 15 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| IIA | 35 | 25 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 8 |
| IIB | 26 | 18 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 7 |
| IIC | 17 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 7 |
| Total | 357 | 314 | 244 | 70 | 43 | 13 | 30 |
aSubstage unknown
Multivariate Cox regression analysis for recurrence and distant metastasis based on 244 cases with complete data for all variables
| Univariate | Multivariatea | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR | 95% CI | HR | 95% CI | |||
| RFS | ||||||
| Breslow | 1.3 | 1.2–1.3 | < 0.001 | 1.2 | 1.1–1.3 | < 0.001 |
| Mitotic rate ≥ 1/mm2 | 3.3 | 1.9–5.7 | < 0.001 | 0.9 | 0.5–1.7 | 0.8 |
| Ulceration present | 4.5 | 3.2–6.5 | < 0.001 | 1.4 | 0.8–2.2 | 0.2 |
| SLN positive | 3.5 | 2.4–5.1 | < 0.001 | 2.5 | 1.6–4.0 | < 0.001 |
| GEP Class 2 | 5.4 | 3.7–7.7 | < 0.001 | 2.1 | 1.3–3.4 | 0.003 |
| DMFS | ||||||
| Breslow | 1.4 | 1.3–1.5 | < 0.001 | 1.3 | 1.2–1.4 | < 0.001 |
| Mitotic rate ≥ 1/mm2 | 3.9 | 2.0–7.5 | < 0.001 | 0.9 | 0.5–2.0 | 0.9 |
| Ulceration present | 4.8 | 3.2–7.2 | < 0.001 | 1.2 | 0.7–2.1 | 0.5 |
| SLN positive | 3.8 | 2.5–5.9 | < 0.001 | 3.0 | 1.7–5.2 | < 0.001 |
| GEP Class 2 | 6.6 | 4.3–10.2 | < 0.001 | 2.7 | 1.5–4.8 | 0.002 |
CI confidence interval, DMFS distant metastasis-free survival, GEP gene expression profile, RFS recurrence-free survival
aThe multivariate Cox regression model includes data from 244 of 523 cases with complete information for Breslow thickness, mitotic rate, ulceration, SLN status and GEP class
Recurrence-free, distant metastasis-free, and melanoma-specific survival rates in the population of patients receiving a sentinel lymph node biopsy
| RFS (# events, 95% CI) | DMFS (# events, 95% CI) | MSS (# events, 95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Class 1 ( | 79% (37, 72–85%) | 87% (24, 82–93%) | 97% (7, 94–100%) |
| Class 2 ( | 51% (89, 44–59%) | 59% (74, 51–67%) | 78% (35, 71–85%) |
| SLN- ( | 79% (43, 73–85%) | 85% (32, 80–91%) | 95% (9, 92–99%) |
| SLN+ ( | 47% (82, 39–56%) | 55% (66, 47–65%) | 75% (33, 68–84%) |
| Class 1/SLN- ( | 87% (15, 81–94%) | 93% (9, 88–98%) | 98% (2, 95–100%) |
| Class 1/SLN+ ( | 61% (22, 49–76%) | 74% (15, 63–88%) | 93% (5, 86–100%) |
| Class 2/SLN- ( | 67% (28, 57–79%) | 75% (23, 66–85%) | 92% (7, 85–98%) |
| Class 2/SLN+ ( | 37% (60, 28–49%) | 44% (51, 34–56%) | 63% (28, 52–76%) |
CI confidence interval, DMFS distant metastasis-free survival, GEP gene expression profile, RFS recurrence-free survival, SLN sentinel lymph node, MSS melanoma-specific survival
Accuracy of the GEP test and sentinel lymph node status
| GEP Class | SLN status | |
|---|---|---|
| % (95% CI) | % (95% CI) | |
| RFS | ||
| Sensitivity | 70% (62–78%) | 66% (57–74%) |
| Specificity | 71% (67–76%) | 65% (58–71%) |
| PPV | 48% (41–55%) | 52% (44–60%) |
| NPV | 87% (82–90%) | 76% (69–82%) |
| DMFS | ||
| Sensitivity | 75% (66–83%) | 67% (57–76%) |
| Specificity | 69% (65–74%) | 62% (55–68%) |
| PPV | 40% (33–47%) | 42% (34–50%) |
| NPV | 91% (87–94%) | 82% (76–88%) |
| MSS | ||
| Sensitivity | 85% (72–94%) | 79% (63–90%) |
| Specificity | 64% (60–69%) | 58% (52–64%) |
| PPV | 19% (14–25%) | 21% (15–28%) |
| NPV | 98% (95–99%) | 95% (91–98%) |
CI confidence interval, DMFS distant metastasis-free survival, GEP gene expression profile, MSS melanoma-specific survival, NPV negative predictive value, PPV positive predictive value, RFS recurrence-free survival, SLN sentinel lymph node
Fig. 4Clinical utility of gene expression profiling with sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB). A schematic of the enhanced identification of high-risk melanoma patients when gene expression profiling is used in combination with SLNB prognostication. With SLNB only, sensitivities for all recurrences [local recurrence (LR) and distant metastasis (DM)] or distant metastases only (DM) are 65% or 67%, respectively (above dotted line). Inclusion of GEP identifies as high risk an additional 29 recurrences and 23 distant metastases, improving overall sensitivity of recurrences to 88%, and sensitivity of distant metastases to 91%. Similarly, the negative predictive value (NPV) is also improved when combining SLNB with the GEP test