| Literature DB >> 29272853 |
Eli D Ehrenpreis1, Dylan G Smith2.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Women with cervical cancer often have anal human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and anal dysplasia. However, effectiveness of anal HPV screening is unknown.Entities:
Mesh:
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Year: 2017 PMID: 29272853 PMCID: PMC5886984 DOI: 10.1016/j.pvr.2017.12.001
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Papillomavirus Res ISSN: 2405-8521
Fig. 1(A) Population of women with cervical cancer with no screening for anal HPV. (B) Population of women with cervical cancer screened for anal HPV.
Model assumptions: screening for Anal HPV and anal dysplasia in patients with cervical cancer.
| Annual Incidence of cervical cancer in the US attributable to HPV = 11,500 (reference |
| % of woman with history of cervical high grade dysplasia or microinvasive cancer with anal HPV=48.3% (reference |
| Total number of woman with woman with history of cervical high grade dysplasia or microinvasive cancer with anal HPV=5555 |
| Average age at time of diagnosis of cervical cancer=49 (ref |
| % of women with history of genital cancer initially having anal ASC-US=19.4% (reference |
| % of women with history of cervical cancer initially having no anal dysplasa=50.8% (reference |
| % of women with history of high grade cervical cytology initially having anal low grade dysplasia=16.0 (reference |
| % of women with history of genital cancer initially having anal high grade dysplasia=3.0% (reference |
| % of women with history of high grade cervical cytology initially having anal low Grade dysplasia=2.3% (reference |
| % of women with anal HPV and no dysplasia that develop high grade dysplasia over two years=8% (Based on MSM) (reference |
| % of women with anal HPV and low grade dysplasia that develop high grade dysplasia over two years=36% (based on MSM) (reference |
| % of women with anal HPV and ASC-US that develop high grade dysplasia over two years=62% (reference |
| ACUS cytology equivalents (Based on 1 year follow up cytology in MSM) (reference |
| ACUS represents normal= 58%, ACUS represents LGD=24%, ACUS represents HSIL= 18%, ACUs represents cancer=0 |
| Histologic progression and regression (Based on 1 year follow up in MSM), (references |
| Progression: Normal to LGD=1.9%, Normal to HSIL=1.78%, Normal to cancer=0%, LGD to HGD=16.5%, LGD to anal cancer=0.05% (estimated), HSIL to anal cancer=3.6% |
| Regression: LGD to normal=22.65%, HSIL to LGD=22% (estimated), HSIL to normal=11.36% |
| Annual anal cancer death rate = 6.72% (reference |
| Five year anal cancer death rate=33.6% (reference |
| Annual death rate from cervical cancer=6.4% (reference |
| Five-year death rate from cervical cancer=32% (reference |
| Average life expectancy for a female age 49=34 years (reference |
| Quality of life weight adjustment for anal cancer=0.56 (reference |
| Quality of life weight adjustment after treatment for anal HSIL=0.9 |
| Quality of life weight adjustment for cervical cancer = 0.70 (0.79–0.62 for Stage 1 and Stage 2) (ref |
| Quality adjusted life expectancy woman age 49=21.6 (38) |
| Quality adjusted life expectancy woman age 49 surviving cervical cancer=21.6 × 0.7=15.12 |
| Quality adjusted life expectancy woman age 49 surviving cervical cancer treated for anal HSIL=15.1 × 0.9 = 13.6 |
| Costs of Individual Tests and Treatments Used for Model Calculations |
| HPV screen=$50.27 |
| Anal cytology =$37.94 |
| Treatment of anal HGD=$3597.00 |
| High resolution anoscopy and biopsy=$147.68 |
| Cost of cancer treatment=$60,913.00 (reference |
| Costs are annualized with estimated 2.05% inflation rate in the model |
Estimates of costs from dynamic modeling for screening for HPV and treatment of anal dysplasia in patients with cervical cancer.
| Costs in unscreened group (Cancer care only) | Costs in screened group (HPV screening, annual cytology, treatment of HSIL, and cancer care) | Cost Difference | Cost per anal cancer prevented | Cost per anal cancer death prevented | Cost per quality of life year saved | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 years | $54,418,071 | $73,650,033 | $19,231,962 | $291,409 | $3205,127 | $71,229 |
| 10 years | $165,859,480 | $194,217,145 | $28,357,665 | $168,796 | $210,057 | $9785 |
| 20 years | $536,526,508 | $567,969,558 | $31,463,030 | $98,631 | $26,133 | $1687 |
Model estimates of cumulative anal cancers and anal cancer deaths in cervical cancer patients that are screened and treated or not screened and treated for anal HPV and dysplasia.
| Year | Cumulative anal cancers Unscreened population | Cumulative anal cancers | Cumulative anal cancer deaths | Cumulative anal cancer deaths |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Screened population | Unscreened population | Screened population | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 113 | 113 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 239 | 239 | 9 | 9 |
| 3 | 388 | 366 | 29 | 29 |
| 4 | 557 | 494 | 61 | 60 |
| 5 | 744 | 620 | 108 | 101 |
| 6 | 945 | 743 | 169 | 152 |
| 7 | 1157 | 864 | 248 | 214 |
| 8 | 1379 | 980 | 344 | 285 |
| 9 | 1607 | 1093 | 458 | 367 |
| 10 | 1841 | 1202 | 592 | 458 |
| 11 | 2078 | 1306 | 744 | 557 |
| 12 | 2317 | 1406 | 917 | 666 |
| 13 | 2557 | 1501 | 1109 | 782 |
| 14 | 2796 | 1593 | 1321 | 907 |
| 15 | 3034 | 1680 | 1554 | 1039 |
| 16 | 3271 | 1762 | 1805 | 1179 |
| 17 | 3504 | 1841 | 2077 | 1325 |
| 18 | 3735 | 1916 | 2368 | 1478 |
| 19 | 3961 | 1987 | 2678 | 1637 |
| 20 | 4184 | 2055 | 3006 | 1802 |
Fig. 2Model prediction for cumulative cases of anal cancer in the screened vs. unscreened population of women with a history of cervical cancer.
Fig. 3Predicted number of new anal cancer cases in patients with cervical cancer undergoing screening for anal dysplasia or no screening.
Fig. 4Model prediction for cumulative cases of anal cancer in the screened vs. unscreened population of women with a history of cervical cancer.
Results of sensitivity analysis comparing costs per life year saved for six different cure rates of anal high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL) with electrocautery techniques.
| Cure rate of anal high- grade dysplasia | Cost/life year saved | Cost/life year saved | Cost/life year saved |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 years | 10 years | 20 years | |
| 0.38 | $321,194.20 | $66,578.65 | $27,398.40 |
| 0.48 | $209,408.02 | $41,747.47 | $16,634.34 |
| 0.58 | $150,733.67 | $28,669.60 | $10,862.67 |
| 0.78 | $91,251.41 | $15,320.73 | $4869.95 |
| 0.88 | $74,457.50 | $11,504.29 | $3128.97 |
| 0.98 | $64,371.75 | $8806.70 | $1518.24 |
Sensitivity analysis comparing the percent reduction in new anal cancers and anal cancer deaths for six different cure rates of high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL) with electrocautery techniques.
| Cure rate of anal high- grade dysplasia | Reduction in new anal cancers after | Reduction in anal cancer deaths after | Reduction in new anal cancers after | Reduction in anal cancer deaths after | Reduction in new anal cancers after | Reduction in anal cancer deaths after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 years | 5 years | 10 years | 10 years | 20 years | 20 years | |
| 0.38 | 12% | 3% | 24% | 10% | 35% | 21% |
| 0.48 | 15% | 4% | 30% | 13% | 42% | 26% |
| 0.58 | 19% | 4% | 35% | 16% | 47% | 30% |
| 0.78 | 25% | 6% | 42% | 20% | 54% | 36% |
| 0.88 | 27% | 6% | 44% | 22% | 57% | 39% |
| 0.98 | 28% | 6% | 46% | 23% | 58% | 40% |