Literature DB >> 29225369

Embracing uncertainty in applied ecology.

E J Milner-Gulland1, K Shea2.   

Abstract

Applied ecologists often face uncertainty that hinders effective decision-making.Common traps that may catch the unwary are: ignoring uncertainty, acknowledging uncertainty but ploughing on, focussing on trivial uncertainties, believing your models, and unclear objectives.We integrate research insights and examples from a wide range of applied ecological fields to illustrate advances that are generally underused, but could facilitate ecologists' ability to plan and execute research to support management.Recommended approaches to avoid uncertainty traps are: embracing models, using decision theory, using models more effectively, thinking experimentally, and being realistic about uncertainty.Synthesis and applications. Applied ecologists can become more effective at informing management by using approaches that explicitly take account of uncertainty.

Entities:  

Keywords:  adaptive management; conservation; decision theory; epidemiology; harvesting; management strategy evaluation; modelling; pest management; structured decision-making; value of information

Year:  2017        PMID: 29225369      PMCID: PMC5722456          DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.12887

Source DB:  PubMed          Journal:  J Appl Ecol        ISSN: 0021-8901            Impact factor:   6.528


  10 in total

1.  Conservation: Reproductive collapse in saiga antelope harems.

Authors:  E J Milner-Gulland; O M Bukreeva; T Coulson; A A Lushchekina; M V Kholodova; A B Bekenov; I A Grachev
Journal:  Nature       Date:  2003-03-13       Impact factor: 49.962

Review 2.  Bet-hedging applications for conservation.

Authors:  Mark S Boyce; Eileen M Kirsch; Christopher Servheen
Journal:  J Biosci       Date:  2002-07       Impact factor: 1.826

Review 3.  Value of information literature analysis: a review of applications in health risk management.

Authors:  Fumie Yokota; Kimberly M Thompson
Journal:  Med Decis Making       Date:  2004 May-Jun       Impact factor: 2.583

4.  Optimal management strategies to control local population growth or population spread may not be the same.

Authors:  Katriona Shea; Eelke Jongejans; Olav Skarpaas; Dave Kelly; Andy W Sheppard
Journal:  Ecol Appl       Date:  2010-06       Impact factor: 4.657

5.  Management strategy evaluation: a powerful tool for conservation?

Authors:  Nils Bunnefeld; Eriko Hoshino; Eleanor J Milner-Gulland
Journal:  Trends Ecol Evol       Date:  2011-06-15       Impact factor: 17.712

6.  Management of populations in conservation, harvesting and control.

Authors:  K Shea
Journal:  Trends Ecol Evol       Date:  1998-11-08       Impact factor: 17.712

Review 7.  Understanding and managing conservation conflicts.

Authors:  Steve M Redpath; Juliette Young; Anna Evely; William M Adams; William J Sutherland; Andrew Whitehouse; Arjun Amar; Robert A Lambert; John D C Linnell; Allan Watt; R J Gutiérrez
Journal:  Trends Ecol Evol       Date:  2012-10-03       Impact factor: 17.712

8.  Decision-making for foot-and-mouth disease control: Objectives matter.

Authors:  William J M Probert; Katriona Shea; Christopher J Fonnesbeck; Michael C Runge; Tim E Carpenter; Salome Dürr; M Graeme Garner; Neil Harvey; Mark A Stevenson; Colleen T Webb; Marleen Werkman; Michael J Tildesley; Matthew J Ferrari
Journal:  Epidemics       Date:  2015-12-10       Impact factor: 4.396

9.  Making robust policy decisions using global biodiversity indicators.

Authors:  Emily Nicholson; Ben Collen; Alberto Barausse; Julia L Blanchard; Brendan T Costelloe; Kathryn M E Sullivan; Fiona M Underwood; Robert W Burn; Steffen Fritz; Julia P G Jones; Louise McRae; Hugh P Possingham; E J Milner-Gulland
Journal:  PLoS One       Date:  2012-07-18       Impact factor: 3.240

10.  Adaptive management and the value of information: learning via intervention in epidemiology.

Authors:  Katriona Shea; Michael J Tildesley; Michael C Runge; Christopher J Fonnesbeck; Matthew J Ferrari
Journal:  PLoS Biol       Date:  2014-10-21       Impact factor: 8.029

  10 in total
  14 in total

1.  Success and failure of ecological management is highly variable in an experimental test.

Authors:  Easton R White; Kyle Cox; Brett A Melbourne; Alan Hastings
Journal:  Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A       Date:  2019-10-28       Impact factor: 11.205

2.  Developing a frame of reference for fisheries management and conservation interventions.

Authors:  Annabelle Jade Bladon; Essam Yassin Mohammed; Liaquat Ali; E J Milner-Gulland
Journal:  Fish Res       Date:  2018-12       Impact factor: 2.422

3.  Framing natural assets for advancing sustainability research: translating different perspectives into actions.

Authors:  Maria Jose Martinez-Harms; Stefan Gelcich; Rainer M Krug; Fleur J F Maseyk; Hannah Moersberger; Archi Rastogi; Geoffrey Wambugu; Cornelia B Krug; Eva M Spehn; Unai Pascual
Journal:  Sustain Sci       Date:  2018-07-17       Impact factor: 6.367

4.  Concurrent assessment of epidemiological and operational uncertainties for optimal outbreak control: Ebola as a case study.

Authors:  Shou-Li Li; Matthew J Ferrari; Ottar N Bjørnstad; Michael C Runge; Christopher J Fonnesbeck; Michael J Tildesley; David Pannell; Katriona Shea
Journal:  Proc Biol Sci       Date:  2019-06-19       Impact factor: 5.349

5.  Integrating models of human behaviour between the individual and population levels to inform conservation interventions.

Authors:  Andrew D M Dobson; Emiel de Lange; Aidan Keane; Harriet Ibbett; E J Milner-Gulland
Journal:  Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci       Date:  2019-07-29       Impact factor: 6.237

6.  A concise guide to developing and using quantitative models in conservation management.

Authors:  Pablo García-Díaz; Thomas A A Prowse; Dean P Anderson; Miguel Lurgi; Rachelle N Binny; Phillip Cassey
Journal:  Conserv Sci Pract       Date:  2019-04-15

Review 7.  On the uncertainty and confidence in decision support tools (DSTs) with insights from the Baltic Sea ecosystem.

Authors:  Floris M van Beest; Henrik Nygård; Vivi Fleming; Jacob Carstensen
Journal:  Ambio       Date:  2020-09-03       Impact factor: 5.129

Review 8.  Understanding the population consequences of disturbance.

Authors:  Enrico Pirotta; Cormac G Booth; Daniel P Costa; Erica Fleishman; Scott D Kraus; David Lusseau; David Moretti; Leslie F New; Robert S Schick; Lisa K Schwarz; Samantha E Simmons; Len Thomas; Peter L Tyack; Michael J Weise; Randall S Wells; John Harwood
Journal:  Ecol Evol       Date:  2018-09-12       Impact factor: 2.912

9.  The potential for citizen science to produce reliable and useful information in ecology.

Authors:  Eleanor D Brown; Byron K Williams
Journal:  Conserv Biol       Date:  2018-11-27       Impact factor: 6.560

10.  COVID-19 reopening strategies at the county level in the face of uncertainty: Multiple Models for Outbreak Decision Support.

Authors:  Katriona Shea; Rebecca K Borchering; William J M Probert; Emily Howerton; Tiffany L Bogich; Shouli Li; Willem G van Panhuis; Cecile Viboud; Ricardo Aguás; Artur Belov; Sanjana H Bhargava; Sean Cavany; Joshua C Chang; Cynthia Chen; Jinghui Chen; Shi Chen; YangQuan Chen; Lauren M Childs; Carson C Chow; Isabel Crooker; Sara Y Del Valle; Guido España; Geoffrey Fairchild; Richard C Gerkin; Timothy C Germann; Quanquan Gu; Xiangyang Guan; Lihong Guo; Gregory R Hart; Thomas J Hladish; Nathaniel Hupert; Daniel Janies; Cliff C Kerr; Daniel J Klein; Eili Klein; Gary Lin; Carrie Manore; Lauren Ancel Meyers; John Mittler; Kunpeng Mu; Rafael C Núñez; Rachel Oidtman; Remy Pasco; Ana Pastore Y Piontti; Rajib Paul; Carl A B Pearson; Dianela R Perdomo; T Alex Perkins; Kelly Pierce; Alexander N Pillai; Rosalyn Cherie Rael; Katherine Rosenfeld; Chrysm Watson Ross; Julie A Spencer; Arlin B Stoltzfus; Kok Ben Toh; Shashaank Vattikuti; Alessandro Vespignani; Lingxiao Wang; Lisa White; Pan Xu; Yupeng Yang; Osman N Yogurtcu; Weitong Zhang; Yanting Zhao; Difan Zou; Matthew Ferrari; David Pannell; Michael Tildesley; Jack Seifarth; Elyse Johnson; Matthew Biggerstaff; Michael Johansson; Rachel B Slayton; John Levander; Jeff Stazer; Jessica Salerno; Michael C Runge
Journal:  medRxiv       Date:  2020-11-05
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