Screening for breast cancer in Nijmegen. Report of 6 screening rounds, 1975-1986.

A population-based screening programme for breast cancer was initiated in Nijmegen in 1975 with mammography as the only screening procedure. Up to January 1987, 6 screening rounds were carried out with a 2-year screening interval. Rates of attendance, referral, biopsy and detection were calculated and numbers of interval cancers are presented in order to give a clear view of what repeated screening can accomplish in a population. At the first screening round the attendance rate was 87% for women under age 50 and 83% for women aged 50-64. For women aged 65 or over the initial attendance rate was 40%. Rates of attendance declined in subsequent years. Detection rates were highest for elderly women at their first examination: 9.5 per 1,000 screened women. Corresponding rates were 5.6 and 2.3 per 1,000 for women aged 50-64 and below 50 respectively. The positive predictive value for referral was, on average, 20% for women under age 50 and 50% for elderly women, although a sharp increase was seen in the last 2 screening examinations for all age-groups. Predictive values for biopsy were higher: 30% on average for women aged under 50 and 60%-70% for elderly women, again with a sharp increase in the last 2 screening rounds. Interval cancer rates, calculated as the number of cancers occurring within 2 years among negatively screened women at risk, showed no particular trend and varied between 0.9-1.3 per 1,000 woman-years after each screening round. Compared to screen-detected cancers, interval cancers occurred more frequently in younger women. In women under age 50, the ratio between screen-detected and interval cancer was about 1:1, while it was about 2:1 for elderly women.