| Literature DB >> 29162209 |
Francesco Vairo1,2,3, Virginia Di Bari1,3, Vincenzo Panella4, Giuseppe Quintavalle5, Saul Torchia5, Maria Cristina Serra5, Maria Teresa Sinopoli5, Maurizio Lopalco6,7, Giancarlo Ceccarelli6, Federica Ferraro2, Sabrina Valle2, Licia Bordi1, Maria Rosaria Capobianchi1, Vincenzo Puro1,2, Paola Scognamiglio1,2, Giuseppe Ippolito1.
Abstract
An outbreak of chickenpox occurred between December 2015 and May 2016 among asylum seekers in a reception centre in Latium, Italy. We describe the epidemiological and laboratory investigations, control measures and validity of reported history of chickenpox infection. Serological screening of all residents and incoming asylum seekers was performed, followed by vaccine offer to all susceptible individuals without contraindication. Forty-six cases were found and 41 were associated with the outbreak. No complications, hospitalisations or deaths occurred. Serological testing was performed in 1,278 individuals and 169 were found to be susceptible, with a seroprevalence of 86.8%. A questionnaire was administered to 336 individuals consecutively attending the CARA health post to collect their serological result. The sensitivity, specificity and the positive and negative predictive value (PPV and NPV) of the reported history of chickenpox were 45.0%, 76.1%, 88.3% and 25.6%, respectively. We observed an increasing trend for the PPV and decreasing trend for the NPV with increasing age. Our report confirms that, in the asylum seeker population, chickenpox history is not the optimal method to identify susceptible individuals. Our experience supports the need for additional prevention and control measures and highlights the importance of national and local surveillance systems for reception centres.Entities:
Keywords: Italy; chickenpox; migrant; outbreaks; surveillance; varicella
Mesh:
Substances:
Year: 2017 PMID: 29162209 PMCID: PMC5718397 DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2017.22.46.17-00020
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Euro Surveill ISSN: 1025-496X
FigureEpidemiological curve and outbreak control measures, Italy, December 2015−May 2016 (n = 46)
Socio-demographic characteristics of serologically screened individuals, by chickenpox immune status, Italy, December 2015−May 2016 (n = 1,278)
| Immune (n = 1,109) | Susceptible (n = 169) | Total population (n = 1,278) | p value | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| n | % | n | % | n | % | ||
| Sex | |||||||
| Male | 909 | 82.0 | 139 | 82.2 | 1,048 | 82.0 | 0.96 a |
| Female | 198 | 17.8 | 30 | 17.8 | 228 | 17.8 | |
| Missing | 2 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.2 | |
| Age (years) as mean (± SD) | 25 (± 7) | 24 (± 5) | 25 (± 7) | 0.02 b | |||
| Length of stay in the centre in days, median (IQR) | 5 (1 – 222) | 4 (1 – 222) | 5 (1 – 222) | 0.81 | |||
| Country of birth | |||||||
| Eritrea | 646 | 58.3 | 109 | 64.5 | 755 | 59.1 | 0.65 a |
| Nigeria | 71 | 6.4 | 14 | 8.3 | 85 | 6.7 | |
| The Gambia | 65 | 5.9 | 4 | 2.4 | 69 | 5.4 | |
| Mali | 59 | 5.3 | 9 | 5.3 | 68 | 5.3 | |
| Pakistan | 47 | 4.2 | 11 | 6.5 | 58 | 4.5 | |
| Senegal | 53 | 4.8 | 5 | 3.0 | 58 | 4.5 | |
| Guinea | 35 | 3.2 | 2 | 1.2 | 37 | 2.9 | |
| Bangladesh | 30 | 2.7 | 4 | 2.4 | 34 | 2.7 | |
| Ghana | 26 | 2.3 | 4 | 2.4 | 30 | 2.3 | |
| Syria | 23 | 2.1 | 1 | 0.6 | 24 | 1.9 | |
| Côte d’Ivoire | 12 | 1.1 | 2 | 1.2 | 14 | 1.1 | |
| Sudan | 9 | 0.8 | 2 | 1.2 | 11 | 0.9 | |
| Ethiopia | 10 | 0.9 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0.8 | |
| Togo | 6 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.5 | |
| Guinea-Bissau | 4 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.3 | |
| Burkina Faso | 2 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.2 | |
| Palestine c | 2 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.2 | |
| Benin | 1 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.1 | |
| Cameroon | 1 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.1 | |
| Congo | 1 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.1 | |
| India | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.6 | 1 | 0.1 | |
| Iraq | 1 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.1 | |
| Liberia | 1 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.1 | |
| Central African Republic | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.6 | 1 | 0.1 | |
| Sierra Leone | 1 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.1 | |
| Sri Lanka | 1 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.1 | |
| Missing | 2 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.2 | |
| Geographic region | |||||||
| East Africa | 656 | 59.2 | 109 | 64.5 | 756 | 59.9 | 0.06 a |
| West Africa | 336 | 30.3 | 40 | 23.7 | 376 | 29.4 | |
| South Asia | 78 | 7.0 | 16 | 9.5 | 94 | 7.4 | |
| West Asia | 26 | 2.3 | 3 | 1.8 | 27 | 2.1 | |
| Central Africa | 11 | 1.0 | 1 | 0.6 | 14 | 1.1 | |
| Missing | 2 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.2 | |
IQR: interquartile range; SD: standard deviation.
a Chi-squared test.
b t-test.
c This designation shall not be construed as recognition of a State of Palestine and is without prejudice to the individual positions of the Member States on this issue.
Characteristics of individuals included in the validity analysis, by chickenpox serological immune status and chickenpox history, Italy, December 2015−May 2016 (n = 336)
| Total | Serological test | pa | Questionnaire | pa | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Immune | Susceptible | Immune | Susceptible | ||||||||||||||
| n | % | n | % | n | % | n | % | ||||||||||
| Sex | |||||||||||||||||
| Male | 268 | 79.8 | 221 | 82.5 | 47 | 17.5 | 0.02 | 106 | 39.6 | 162 | 60.4 | 0.36 | |||||
| Female | 67 | 19.9 | 47 | 70.2 | 20 | 29.9 | 30 | 44.8 | 37 | 55.2 | |||||||
| Missing | 1 | 0.3 | 1 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 100 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| Age (years) as mean (± SD) | 24.5 | 6.1 | 25.5 (6.3) | 23.3(4.7) | 0.001 | 26.6(6.8) | 23.9(5.2) | < 0.001b | |||||||||
| Geographic region | |||||||||||||||||
| East Africa | 223 | 66.4 | 177 | 79.4 | 46 | 20.6 | 0.242 | 100 | 44.8 | 123 | 55.2 | 0.123 | |||||
| West Africa | 79 | 23.5 | 67 | 84.8 | 12 | 15.2 | 23 | 29.1 | 56 | 70.9 | |||||||
| South Asia | 18 | 5.4 | 11 | 61.1 | 7 | 38.9 | 7 | 38.9 | 11 | 61.1 | |||||||
| West Asia | 5 | 1.5 | 5 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 60.0 | 2 | 40.0 | |||||||
| Central Africa | 10 | 3.0 | 8 | 80.0 | 2 | 20.0 | 3 | 30.0 | 7 | 70.0 | |||||||
| Missing | 1 | 0.3 | 1 | 100 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 100 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| Area | |||||||||||||||||
| Urban | 155 | 46.1 | 132 | 85.2 | 23 | 14.8 | 0.02 | 82 | 52.9 | 73 | 47.1 | <0.001 | |||||
| Rural | 165 | 49.1 | 122 | 73.9 | 43 | 26.1 | 49 | 29.7 | 116 | 70.3 | |||||||
| Missing | 16 | 4.8 | 15 | 93.7 | 1 | 6.3 | 6 | 37.5 | 10 | 62.5 | |||||||
| Education | |||||||||||||||||
| No education | 28 | 8.3 | 27 | 96.4 | 1 | 3.6 | 0.07 | 9 | 32.1 | 19 | 67.9 | 0.607 | |||||
| Any | 300 | 89.3 | 236 | 78.7 | 64 | 21.3 | 125 | 41.7 | 175 | 58.3 | |||||||
| Missing | 8 | 2.4 | 6 | 75.0 | 2 | 25.0 | 3 | 37.5 | 5 | 62.5 | |||||||
SD: standard deviation.
a Chi-squared test.
b t-test.
Sensitivity, specificity, postitive and negative predictive value of history of chickenpox infection, by prevalence and age groups, Italy, December 2015−May 2016 (n = 336)
| Seroprevalence | Sensitivity | Specificity | PPV | NPV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total population | 80.1 | 45.0 (39–51) | 76.1 (65.9–86.3) | 88.3 (82.9–93.7) | 25.6 (19.6–31.7) |
| Age groups | |||||
| ≤ 20 years | 68.8 | 34.5 (22.0–47.1) | 84.0 (69.6–98.4) | 82.6 (67.1–98.1) | 36.8 (24.3–49.4) |
| 21–23 years | 79.8 | 32.8 (21.6–44.1) | 70.6 (48.9–92.2) | 81.5 (66.8–96.1) | 21.1 (10.5–31.6) |
| 24–27 years | 85.1 | 50.0 (38.6–61.4) | 84.6 (65.0–100) | 94.9 (87.9–100) | 22.9 (11.0–34.8) |
|
| 85.9 | 58.9 (47.6–70.2) | 58.3 (30.4–86.2) | 89.6 (80.9–98.2) | 18.9 (6.3–31.5) |
| Assuming prevalence = 86.8% | 86.8 | NA | NA | 92.5 (88.8–95.1) a | 17.4 (15–20) a |
NA: not applicable; NPV: negative predictive value; PPV: positive predictive value.
a Calculated using likelihood ratio test.