| Literature DB >> 32036802 |
Xu-Sheng Zhang1, Alexandra Smith2, Bharat Patel3, Charlotte Anderson4, Laura Pomeroy2, Gillian Higgins5, Éamonn O'Moore6, Yimmy Chow2, Christina Atchison2.
Abstract
Chickenpox is caused by varicella-zoster-virus (VZV) and is highly contagious. Immigration detention settings are a high-risk environment for primary VZV transmission, with large, rapidly-changing populations in close quarters, and higher susceptibility among non-UK-born individuals. During outbreaks, operational challenges occur in detention settings because of high-turnover and the potential need to implement population movement restriction for prolonged periods. Between December 2017 and February 2018, four cases of chickenpox were notified amongst 799 detainees in an immigration removal centre (IRC). Microbiological investigations included case confirmation by vesicular fluid polymerase chain reaction, and VZV serology for susceptibility testing. Control measures involved movement restrictions, isolation of cases, quarantining and cohorting of non-immune contacts and extending VZV immunity testing to the wider detainee population to support outbreak management. Immunity was tested for 301/532 (57%) detainees, of whom 24 (8%) were non-immune. The level of non-immunity was lower than expected based on the existing literature on VZV seroprevalence in detained populations in England. Serology results identified non-immune contacts who could be cohorted and, due to the lack of isolation capacity, allowed the placement of cases with immune detainees. The widespread immunity testing of all detainees was proving challenging to sustain because it required significant resources and was having a severe impact on operational capacity and the ability to maintain core business activities at the IRC. Therefore, mathematical modelling was used to assess the impact of scaling back mass immunity testing. Modelling demonstrated that interrupting testing posed a risk of one additional case compared to continuing with testing. As such, the decision was made to stop testing, and the outbreak was successfully controlled without excessive strain on resources. Operational challenges generated learning for future outbreaks, with implications for a local and national policy on IRC staff occupational health requirements, and proposed reception screening of detainees for VZV immunity.Entities:
Keywords: Chickenpox; VZV serology; detention setting; disease management; immunity testing; mathematical modelling; outbreak
Year: 2020 PMID: 32036802 PMCID: PMC7026903 DOI: 10.1017/S095026882000014X
Source DB: PubMed Journal: Epidemiol Infect ISSN: 0950-2688 Impact factor: 2.451
Case definitions used for epidemiological investigations in the IRC chickenpox outbreak
| Confirmed | PCR positive VZV on vesicular swab testing with or without clinical diagnosis. |
| Probable | Clinical diagnosis (classical crops of vesicles on the face/scalp which spreads to trunk/limbs with or without fever, flu-like symptoms and general malaise) with no laboratory testing. |
| Possible | Clinically suspected (acute rash with non-classical appearance or distribution with/without fever, flu-like symptoms and general malaise) but other diagnoses being equally as likely |
Fig. 1.Timeline of cases of chickenpox among detainees and early public health actions, December 2017 – January 2018. (OCT: Outbreak Control Team. 2nd, 3rd, 7th refers to the 2nd, 3rd, 7th OCT meeting – For example, the decision to stop mass immunity testing was taken at the 7th Outbreak Control Team meeting)
Country of origin of detainees in Centre B tested for VZV immunity without known significant exposure to cases, January 2018
| Country of origin | Number tested | Non-immune | |
|---|---|---|---|
| % | |||
| Afghanistan | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Albania | 20 | 1 | 5 |
| Algeria | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Bangladesh | 21 | 1 | 5 |
| Brazil | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| China | 8 | 2 | 25 |
| Egypt | 4 | 1 | 25 |
| Eritrea | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Fiji | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Gambia | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ghana | 7 | 1 | 14 |
| Guatemala | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Guinea | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| India | 23 | 4 | 17 |
| Jordan | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Lithuania | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mauritius | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Morocco | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nigeria | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Pakistan | 24 | 1 | 4 |
| Poland | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Somalia | 3 | 1 | 33 |
| South Africa | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sri Lanka | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sudan | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tunisia | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Turkey | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Ukraine | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Uzbekistan | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Not Known | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 152 | 12 | 8 |
Summary of results of mathematical analyses
| Modelling condition | Date when outbreak would have ended (95% probability) | Date when outbreak would have ended (97.5% probability) | Number of additional potential cases within 4 weeks (2.5% probability) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Centre A | Centre B | Centre A | Centre B | Centre A | Centre B | |
| Condition 1 | 24 January 2018 | 24 January 2018 | 06 February 2018 | 3 | 18 | |
| Condition 2 | 24 January 2018 | 24 January 2018 | 26 January 2018 | 2 | 2 | |
| Condition 3 | 24 January 2018 | 24 January 2018 | 31 January 2018 | 3 | 3 | |
Date when outbreak would have ended was defined as onset of last case.
Note:
Three conditions are:
Condition 1: No testing and no quarantine for non-immune detainees.
Condition 2: From 19 January 2018 testing all detainees on Centre B and cohorting all those found to be non-immune for 21 days.
Condition 3: Testing 300 detainees in Centre B (out of 706) and cohorting all non-immune detainees (7% of 300) up to 29 January 2018.
Model assumptions for all conditions tested are that current control measures are in place and continuing: infection control, management of cases with identification of contacts and movement restrictions in the IRCs.
Modelling analysis performed 26 January 2018 using data available up to 24 January 2018.
Modelling results and projections applied into the future 4 week period after analysis.
Date when outbreak would have ended at centre A (97.5%) could be a long time in the future see Supplement 2 for details.