A J Rosellini1, H Liu2, M V Petukhova3, N A Sampson3, S Aguilar-Gaxiola4, J Alonso5, G Borges6, R Bruffaerts7, E J Bromet8, G de Girolamo9, P de Jonge10, J Fayyad11, S Florescu12, O Gureje13, J M Haro14, H Hinkov15, E G Karam11, N Kawakami16, K C Koenen2, S Lee17, J P Lépine18, D Levinson19, F Navarro-Mateu20, B D Oladeji13, S O'Neill21, B-E Pennell22, M Piazza23, J Posada-Villa24, K M Scott25, D J Stein26, Y Torres27, M C Viana28, A M Zaslavsky3, R C Kessler3. 1. Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences,Boston University,Boston, MA,USA. 2. Department of Epidemiology,Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health,Boston, MA,USA. 3. Department of Health Care Policy,Harvard Medical School,Boston, MA,USA. 4. Center for Reducing Health Disparities, UC Davis Health System,Sacramento, CA,USA. 5. IMIM-Hospital del Mar Research Institute, Parc de Salut Mar, Pompeu Fabra University (UPF), and CIBER en Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP),Barcelona,Spain. 6. National Institute of Psychiatry Ramón de la Fuente,Mexico City,Mexico. 7. Universitair Psychiatrisch Centrum - Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (UPC-KUL),Campus Gasthuisberg, Leuven,Belgium. 8. Department of Psychiatry,Stony Brook University School of Medicine,Stony Brook, NY,USA. 9. IRCCS St John of God Clinical Research Centre/IRCCS Centro S. Giovanni di Dio Fatebenefratelli,Brescia,Italy. 10. Developmental Psychology,Department of Psychology,Rijksuniversiteit Groningen,Groningen,The Netherlands. 11. Institute for Development, Research, Advocacy & Applied Care (IDRAAC),Beirut,Lebanon. 12. National School of Public Health, Management and Development,Bucharest,Romania. 13. Department of Psychiatry,College of Medicine, University of Ibadan,Ibadan,Nigeria. 14. Parc Sanitari Sant Joan de Déu, CIBERSAM, Universitat de Barcelona,Barcelona,Spain. 15. National Center for Public Health and Analyses,Sofia,Bulgaria. 16. Department of Mental Health,School of Public Health, The University of Tokyo,Tokyo,Japan. 17. Department of Psychiatry,Chinese University of Hong Kong,Tai Po,Hong Kong. 18. Hôpital Lariboisière-Fernand Widal, Assistance Publique Hôpitaux de Paris, Universités Paris Descartes-Paris Diderot,INSERM UMR-S 1144, Paris,France. 19. Mental Health Services, Ministry of Health,Jerusalem,Israel. 20. UDIF-SM, Subdirección General de Planificación, Innovación y Cronicidad, Servicio Murciano de Salud, IMIB-Arrixaca, CIBERESP-Murcia,Murcia,Spain. 21. School of Psychology, Ulster University,Londonderry,UK. 22. Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan,Ann Arbor, MI,USA. 23. Universidad Cayetano Heredia, National Institute of Health,Lima,Peru. 24. Colegio Mayor de Cundinamarca University,Bogota,Colombia. 25. Department of Psychological Medicine,University of Otago,Dunedin, Otago,New Zealand. 26. Department of Psychiatry and Mental Health,University of Cape Town,Cape Town,Republic of South Africa. 27. Center for Excellence on Research in Mental Health, CES University,Medellín,Colombia. 28. Department of Social Medicine,Federal University of Espírito Santo,Vitoria,Brazil.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Research on post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) course finds a substantial proportion of cases remit within 6 months, a majority within 2 years, and a substantial minority persists for many years. Results are inconsistent about pre-trauma predictors. METHODS: The WHO World Mental Health surveys assessed lifetime DSM-IV PTSD presence-course after one randomly-selected trauma, allowing retrospective estimates of PTSD duration. Prior traumas, childhood adversities (CAs), and other lifetime DSM-IV mental disorders were examined as predictors using discrete-time person-month survival analysis among the 1575 respondents with lifetime PTSD. RESULTS: 20%, 27%, and 50% of cases recovered within 3, 6, and 24 months and 77% within 10 years (the longest duration allowing stable estimates). Time-related recall bias was found largely for recoveries after 24 months. Recovery was weakly related to most trauma types other than very low [odds-ratio (OR) 0.2-0.3] early-recovery (within 24 months) associated with purposefully injuring/torturing/killing and witnessing atrocities and very low later-recovery (25+ months) associated with being kidnapped. The significant ORs for prior traumas, CAs, and mental disorders were generally inconsistent between early- and later-recovery models. Cross-validated versions of final models nonetheless discriminated significantly between the 50% of respondents with highest and lowest predicted probabilities of both early-recovery (66-55% v. 43%) and later-recovery (75-68% v. 39%). CONCLUSIONS: We found PTSD recovery trajectories similar to those in previous studies. The weak associations of pre-trauma factors with recovery, also consistent with previous studies, presumably are due to stronger influences of post-trauma factors.
BACKGROUND: Research on post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) course finds a substantial proportion of cases remit within 6 months, a majority within 2 years, and a substantial minority persists for many years. Results are inconsistent about pre-trauma predictors. METHODS: The WHO World Mental Health surveys assessed lifetime DSM-IV PTSD presence-course after one randomly-selected trauma, allowing retrospective estimates of PTSD duration. Prior traumas, childhood adversities (CAs), and other lifetime DSM-IV mental disorders were examined as predictors using discrete-time person-month survival analysis among the 1575 respondents with lifetime PTSD. RESULTS: 20%, 27%, and 50% of cases recovered within 3, 6, and 24 months and 77% within 10 years (the longest duration allowing stable estimates). Time-related recall bias was found largely for recoveries after 24 months. Recovery was weakly related to most trauma types other than very low [odds-ratio (OR) 0.2-0.3] early-recovery (within 24 months) associated with purposefully injuring/torturing/killing and witnessing atrocities and very low later-recovery (25+ months) associated with being kidnapped. The significant ORs for prior traumas, CAs, and mental disorders were generally inconsistent between early- and later-recovery models. Cross-validated versions of final models nonetheless discriminated significantly between the 50% of respondents with highest and lowest predicted probabilities of both early-recovery (66-55% v. 43%) and later-recovery (75-68% v. 39%). CONCLUSIONS: We found PTSD recovery trajectories similar to those in previous studies. The weak associations of pre-trauma factors with recovery, also consistent with previous studies, presumably are due to stronger influences of post-trauma factors.
Authors: C Benjet; E Bromet; E G Karam; R C Kessler; K A McLaughlin; A M Ruscio; V Shahly; D J Stein; M Petukhova; E Hill; J Alonso; L Atwoli; B Bunting; R Bruffaerts; J M Caldas-de-Almeida; G de Girolamo; S Florescu; O Gureje; Y Huang; J P Lepine; N Kawakami; Viviane Kovess-Masfety; M E Medina-Mora; F Navarro-Mateu; M Piazza; J Posada-Villa; K M Scott; A Shalev; T Slade; M ten Have; Y Torres; M C Viana; Z Zarkov; K C Koenen Journal: Psychol Med Date: 2015-10-29 Impact factor: 7.723
Authors: Ronald C Kessler; Hagop S Akiskal; Jules Angst; Margaret Guyer; Robert M A Hirschfeld; Kathleen R Merikangas; Paul E Stang Journal: J Affect Disord Date: 2006-09-25 Impact factor: 4.839
Authors: Ronald C Kessler; Sherri Rose; Karestan C Koenen; Elie G Karam; Paul E Stang; Dan J Stein; Steven G Heeringa; Eric D Hill; Israel Liberzon; Katie A McLaughlin; Samuel A McLean; Beth E Pennell; Maria Petukhova; Anthony J Rosellini; Ayelet M Ruscio; Victoria Shahly; Arieh Y Shalev; Derrick Silove; Alan M Zaslavsky; Matthias C Angermeyer; Evelyn J Bromet; José Miguel Caldas de Almeida; Giovanni de Girolamo; Peter de Jonge; Koen Demyttenaere; Silvia E Florescu; Oye Gureje; Josep Maria Haro; Hristo Hinkov; Norito Kawakami; Viviane Kovess-Masfety; Sing Lee; Maria Elena Medina-Mora; Samuel D Murphy; Fernando Navarro-Mateu; Marina Piazza; Jose Posada-Villa; Kate Scott; Yolanda Torres; Maria Carmen Viana Journal: World Psychiatry Date: 2014-10 Impact factor: 49.548
Authors: Carol S North; Betty Pfefferbaum; Aya Kawasaki; Sungkyu Lee; Edward L Spitznagel Journal: Compr Psychiatry Date: 2010-06-26 Impact factor: 3.735
Authors: Josep Maria Haro; Saena Arbabzadeh-Bouchez; Traolach S Brugha; Giovanni de Girolamo; Margaret E Guyer; Robert Jin; Jean Pierre Lepine; Fausto Mazzi; Blanca Reneses; Gemma Vilagut; Nancy A Sampson; Ronald C Kessler Journal: Int J Methods Psychiatr Res Date: 2006 Impact factor: 4.035
Authors: Howard Liu; Maria V Petukhova; Nancy A Sampson; Sergio Aguilar-Gaxiola; Jordi Alonso; Laura Helena Andrade; Evelyn J Bromet; Giovanni de Girolamo; Josep Maria Haro; Hristo Hinkov; Norito Kawakami; Karestan C Koenen; Viviane Kovess-Masfety; Sing Lee; Maria Elena Medina-Mora; Fernando Navarro-Mateu; Siobhan O'Neill; Marina Piazza; José Posada-Villa; Kate M Scott; Victoria Shahly; Dan J Stein; Margreet Ten Have; Yolanda Torres; Oye Gureje; Alan M Zaslavsky; Ronald C Kessler Journal: JAMA Psychiatry Date: 2017-03-01 Impact factor: 21.596
Authors: R H Pietrzak; A Feder; R Singh; C B Schechter; E J Bromet; C L Katz; D B Reissman; F Ozbay; V Sharma; M Crane; D Harrison; R Herbert; S M Levin; B J Luft; J M Moline; J M Stellman; I G Udasin; P J Landrigan; S M Southwick Journal: Psychol Med Date: 2013-04-03 Impact factor: 7.723