Yunlang She1, Lilan Zhao1, Chenyang Dai1, Yijiu Ren1, Gening Jiang1, Huikang Xie2, Huiyuan Zhu3, Xiwen Sun3, Ping Yang4, Yongbing Chen5, Shunbin Shi6, Weirong Shi7, Bing Yu8, Dong Xie1, Chang Chen1. 1. Department of Thoracic Surgery, Shanghai Pulmonary Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, P. R. China. 2. Department of Pathology, Shanghai Pulmonary Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, P. R. China. 3. Department of Radiology, Shanghai Pulmonary Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, P. R. China. 4. Division of Epidemiology, Department of Health Sciences Research, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota. 5. Department of Thoracic Surgery, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Jiangsu, P. R. China. 6. Department of Thoracic Surgery, The Affiliated Wujiang Hospital of Nantong University, Jiangsu, P. R. China. 7. Department of Thoracic Surgery, Nantong Sixth People's Hospital, Jiangsu, P. R. China. 8. Department of Thoracic Surgery, Fenghua People's Hospital, Zhejiang, P. R. China.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a nomogram to estimate the pretest probability of malignancy in Chinese patients with solid solitary pulmonary nodule (SPN). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A primary cohort of 1798 patients with pathologically confirmed solid SPNs after surgery was retrospectively studied at five institutions from January 2014 to December 2015. A nomogram based on independent prediction factors of malignant solid SPN was developed. Predictive performance also was evaluated using the calibration curve and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: The mean age of the cohort was 58.9 ± 10.7 years. In univariate and multivariate analysis, age; history of cancer; the log base 10 transformations of serum carcinoembryonic antigen value; nodule diameter; the presence of spiculation, pleural indentation, and calcification remained the predictive factors of malignancy. A nomogram was developed, and the AUC value (0.85; 95%CI, 0.83-0.88) was significantly higher than other three models. The calibration cure showed optimal agreement between the malignant probability as predicted by nomogram and the actual probability. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated a nomogram that can estimate the pretest probability of malignant solid SPNs, which can assist clinical physicians to select and interpret the results of subsequent diagnostic tests.
OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a nomogram to estimate the pretest probability of malignancy in Chinese patients with solid solitary pulmonary nodule (SPN). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A primary cohort of 1798 patients with pathologically confirmed solid SPNs after surgery was retrospectively studied at five institutions from January 2014 to December 2015. A nomogram based on independent prediction factors of malignant solid SPN was developed. Predictive performance also was evaluated using the calibration curve and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: The mean age of the cohort was 58.9 ± 10.7 years. In univariate and multivariate analysis, age; history of cancer; the log base 10 transformations of serum carcinoembryonic antigen value; nodule diameter; the presence of spiculation, pleural indentation, and calcification remained the predictive factors of malignancy. A nomogram was developed, and the AUC value (0.85; 95%CI, 0.83-0.88) was significantly higher than other three models. The calibration cure showed optimal agreement between the malignant probability as predicted by nomogram and the actual probability. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated a nomogram that can estimate the pretest probability of malignant solid SPNs, which can assist clinical physicians to select and interpret the results of subsequent diagnostic tests.
Authors: Ke Sun; Shouyu Chen; Jiabi Zhao; Bin Wang; Yang Yang; Yin Wang; Chunyan Wu; Xiwen Sun Journal: Front Oncol Date: 2021-12-21 Impact factor: 6.244