Ludwig Kappos1, Helmut Butzkueven2, Heinz Wiendl3, Timothy Spelman4, Fabio Pellegrini5, Yi Chen6, Qunming Dong6, Harold Koendgen5, Shibeshih Belachew6, Maria Trojano7. 1. Neurologic Clinic and Policlinic, Departments of Medicine, Clinical Research, Biomedicine and Biomedical Engineering, University Hospital of Basel, Basel, Switzerland. 2. Department of Medicine, Royal Melbourne Hospital, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia/Department of Neurology, Box Hill Hospital, Monash University, Box Hill, VIC, Australia. 3. Department of Neurology-Inflammatory Disorders of the Nervous System and Neurooncology, University of Münster, Münster, Germany. 4. Department of Medicine, Royal Melbourne Hospital, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia. 5. Biogen International GmbH, Zug, Switzerland. 6. Biogen, Cambridge, MA, USA. 7. Department of Basic Medical Sciences, Neuroscience and Sense Organs, University of Bari Aldo Moro, Bari, Italy.
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Confirmed Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) progression occurring after a fixed-study entry baseline is a common measure of disability increase in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) studies but may not detect all disability progression events, especially those unrelated to overt relapses. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate possible measures of disability progression unrelated to relapse using EDSS data over ≈5.5 years from the Tysabri® Observational Program (TOP). METHODS: TOP is an ongoing, prospective, open-label study in RRMS patients receiving intravenous 300 mg natalizumab every 4 weeks. Measures of increasing disability were assessed using as a reference either study baseline score or a "roving" system that resets the reference score after ⩾24- or ⩾48-week confirmation of a new score. RESULTS: This analysis included 5562 patients. Approximately 70% more EDSS progression events unrelated to relapse and 50% more EDSS worsening events overall were detected with a roving reference score (cumulative probability: 17.6% and 29.7%, respectively) than with a fixed reference baseline score (cumulative probability: 10.1% and 20.3%, respectively). CONCLUSION: In this long-term observational RRMS dataset, a roving EDSS reference value was more efficient than a study baseline EDSS reference in detecting progression/worsening events unrelated to relapses and thus the transition to secondary progressive disease.
BACKGROUND: Confirmed Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) progression occurring after a fixed-study entry baseline is a common measure of disability increase in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) studies but may not detect all disability progression events, especially those unrelated to overt relapses. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate possible measures of disability progression unrelated to relapse using EDSS data over ≈5.5 years from the Tysabri® Observational Program (TOP). METHODS: TOP is an ongoing, prospective, open-label study in RRMS patients receiving intravenous 300 mg natalizumab every 4 weeks. Measures of increasing disability were assessed using as a reference either study baseline score or a "roving" system that resets the reference score after ⩾24- or ⩾48-week confirmation of a new score. RESULTS: This analysis included 5562 patients. Approximately 70% more EDSS progression events unrelated to relapse and 50% more EDSS worsening events overall were detected with a roving reference score (cumulative probability: 17.6% and 29.7%, respectively) than with a fixed reference baseline score (cumulative probability: 10.1% and 20.3%, respectively). CONCLUSION: In this long-term observational RRMS dataset, a roving EDSS reference value was more efficient than a study baseline EDSS reference in detecting progression/worsening events unrelated to relapses and thus the transition to secondary progressive disease.
Prevention of disability accumulation in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple
sclerosis (RRMS) is a common goal in clinical trials and clinical practice.[1] Disability worsening is typically measured by increases in Expanded
Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score confirmed at 12 or 24 weeks or time points
later in the trial, using the baseline EDSS score as reference. Confirmation of EDSS
increase at 12 or 24 weeks or a later time point reduces the likelihood of capturing
events that may subsequently revert,[2,3] and the European Medicines Agency[4] has recently recommended that disability worsening be confirmed by
measurements taken at least 24 weeks apart.Most RRMS studies enroll patients with clinical disease activity, and though the
enrollment criteria of these studies require that the last relapse not have occurred
within a certain timeframe before baseline (usually at least 30 days), a substantial
fraction of patients will experience EDSS score regression,[5] especially during the first year, which may be associated with prolonged
recovery from relapse. Such an initial decrease in EDSS score after treatment
initiation may reduce the detection rate of subsequent events of disability
worsening or progression, as patients first have to progress back to the baseline
level and then beyond it to register a worsening or progression event.The typical disease course of multiple sclerosis (MS) begins with clinically active
RRMS, characterized by the occurrence of relapses, acute or subacute episodes of new
or increasing neurologic dysfunction, followed by full or partial recovery in the
absence of fever or infection.[6] In most RRMS patients, the disease eventually advances to a secondary
progressive stage.[7] Secondary progressive MS (SPMS) is characterized by an initial
relapsing-remitting disease course followed by progression of variable rate with or
without occasional relapses, minor remissions, and plateaus.[8] The median time to secondary progression has been estimated as 15–19 years
from RRMS onset.[7,9]
Reaching SPMS appears to be the strongest determinant of poor long-term disease
prognosis and is more dependent on age than on disease duration.[10-14]Clear metrics for sensitive and reliable identification of the transition from RRMS
to SPMS have been lacking.[6] A comprehensive analysis using the large MSBase cohort to evaluate potential
definitions found the highest specificity in a definition requiring an EDSS score
increase of ⩾1.0 (or ⩾0.5 from a baseline score ⩾6.0), resulting in a minimum score
of 4.0 in the absence of relapses that was confirmed after ⩾3 months within the
leading functional system, along with a minimum pyramidal functional system score of 2.0.[15] Despite its high specificity, this definition would only capture progressive
disease in a rather advanced stage that may be less amenable to treatment.When referring to increases in disability, recent literature has suggested that the
term “worsening” be used in place of “progression” to describe increasing disability
in patients with relapsing forms of the disease, with the term “progression”
reserved for patients in the progressive phase of MS, defined by progressively
increasing disability unrelated to relapse activity.[6,15]In this study, we explore the use of a roving EDSS reference value to enhance
detection of EDSS worsening events. The use of a roving EDSS reference value should
also allow more sensitive measurement (in the total study population) of disability
progression within relapse-free epochs according to specific, time-based interval
definitions (e.g. 24 or 48 weeks apart). Using data from a period of approximately
5.5 years in the Tysabri® Observational Program (TOP)[16] study of natalizumab-treated RRMS patients, we evaluate metrics using fixed
and roving EDSS baseline criteria for identification of changes in disability.
Materials and methods
Study design
TOP (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00493298) is an ongoing, prospective, observational,
10-year open-label study of patients with RRMS in clinical practice settings in
Europe, Australia, Argentina, and Canada.[16] The study protocol was approved by each center’s independent ethics
committee. A complete list of investigators and the countries in which they
practice is included in the Supplementary Material. The study design was written
in accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki and Good Clinical Practice
guidelines, and all enrolled patients provided written informed consent.The TOP methodology and interim conventional disability progression outcomes have
been published.[16] Briefly, patients who have received ⩽3 infusions of natalizumab prior to
enrollment are eligible to enroll in TOP. Patients in TOP receive intravenous
infusions of 300 mg natalizumab every 4 weeks.
Assessments
EDSS scores were assessed at regular clinical visits approximately every 24
weeks. For the sake of clarity and consistency with the revised definitions of
the clinical course of MS in Lublin et al.,[6] throughout this article, we refer to a disability increase associated
with relapses as EDSS worsening, whereas EDSS
progression is reserved for a disability increase unrelated
to overt relapse activity. EDSS worsening and progression events were defined as
increases in EDSS score of ⩾1.5 points from an EDSS score of 0.0, ⩾1.0 point
from an EDSS score of 1.0–5.5, or ⩾0.5 point from an EDSS score ⩾6.0. EDSS
worsening and progression events were assessed using as a reference either the
conventional fixed study baseline EDSS score or a roving EDSS score in which the
increase or decrease had to be separated from the last EDSS assessment by at
least 24 or 48 weeks (Figure
1). All EDSS worsening and progression events were required to be
confirmed at 24 weeks.
Figure 1.
Schematic of the roving Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) reference
system. Confirmed EDSS worsening (a) ⩾24 or (b) ⩾48 weeks apart using a
roving reference is illustrated. Also shown are hypothetical examples of
confirmed EDSS worsening (c) ⩾24 or (d) ⩾48 weeks apart that would be
captured using a roving EDSS reference and not accounted for using the
conventional study baseline as EDSS.
*Increase in EDSS score of ⩾1.5 points from a score of 0.0, ⩾1.0 point
from a score of 1.0–5.5, or ⩾0.5 points from a score ⩾6.0.
Schematic of the roving Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) reference
system. Confirmed EDSS worsening (a) ⩾24 or (b) ⩾48 weeks apart using a
roving reference is illustrated. Also shown are hypothetical examples of
confirmed EDSS worsening (c) ⩾24 or (d) ⩾48 weeks apart that would be
captured using a roving EDSS reference and not accounted for using the
conventional study baseline as EDSS.*Increase in EDSS score of ⩾1.5 points from a score of 0.0, ⩾1.0 point
from a score of 1.0–5.5, or ⩾0.5 points from a score ⩾6.0.Using the fixed space baseline EDSS score reference or the roving EDSS reference
value, we assessed both overall confirmed EDSS worsening and EDSS progression
unrelated to relapse. An observed EDSS progression event was considered
unrelated to any relapse if no concurrent relapse had been recorded from the 30
days prior to the reference EDSS assessment to either 30 days or 12 weeks after
the progressed EDSS assessment time point (Figure 2). Using a roving EDSS score
rather than the fixed study baseline EDSS score as reference reduced the
potential bias toward the selection of entirely relapse-free patients when
progression events unrelated to relapse were analyzed.
Figure 2.
Schematic of methodological assessment of Expanded Disability Status
Scale (EDSS) progression unrelated to relapses confirmed (a) ⩾24 or (b)
⩾48 weeks apart using a roving EDSS reference.
t: time following EDSS increase with no concurrent
relapse.
*Increase in EDSS score of ⩾1.5 points from a score of 0.0, ⩾1.0 point
from a score of 1.0–5.5, or ⩾0.5 points from a score ⩾6.0.
Schematic of methodological assessment of Expanded Disability Status
Scale (EDSS) progression unrelated to relapses confirmed (a) ⩾24 or (b)
⩾48 weeks apart using a roving EDSS reference.t: time following EDSS increase with no concurrent
relapse.*Increase in EDSS score of ⩾1.5 points from a score of 0.0, ⩾1.0 point
from a score of 1.0–5.5, or ⩾0.5 points from a score ⩾6.0.
Sensitivity analysis
A sensitivity analysis of the roving EDSS reference system was performed with
progression events unrelated to relapse (increases in EDSS score of ⩾1.5 points
from an EDSS score of 0.0, ⩾1.0 point from an EDSS score of 1.0–5.5, or ⩾0.5
point from an EDSS score ⩾6.0) excluded if recorded in reference to an EDSS
score that was both lower than study baseline EDSS score and not confirmed after
⩾12 weeks. (For example, if a recorded EDSS score was lower than the score at
study baseline, then, to qualify for use as a progression reference, this EDSS
score must also have been confirmed by a second EDSS score at least as low as
the first score ⩾12 weeks later.)
Statistical analysis
Baseline characteristics are presented using summary statistics as appropriate.
Cumulative probabilities of EDSS worsening and progression unrelated to relapse
were estimated using the Kaplan–Meier method. If the onset of EDSS worsening or
progression unrelated to relapse occurred ⩾12 weeks after the last dose of
natalizumab, this event was excluded and the patient was censored 12 weeks after
the last dose. However, confirmation of the worsening or progression event could
occur ⩾12 weeks after the last dose of natalizumab. The analysis allowed
multiple events of progression; when a patient had ⩾2 confirmed progression
events, the event with the earliest onset date was used. Patients who dropped
out of the study before week 288 and who had not had any progression events were
censored 12 weeks after the last dose or at week 288, whichever was earlier.Cumulative probabilities of EDSS worsening and progression unrelated to relapse
using a roving EDSS reference were also analyzed in subgroups based on age at
baseline (⩽37 years and >37 years), baseline EDSS score (⩽3.5 and >3.5),
the number of relapses prior to starting natalizumab (<2 and ⩾2), and MS
disease duration at baseline (⩽7 years and >7 years) in which patients were
stratified according to their distribution above or below the median value at
study baseline. Analyses were conducted using SAS/STAT software (version 9.3,
SAS Institute, Cary, NC, USA).
Results
As of 1 May 2014, a total of 5623 patients were enrolled in TOP. Of these patients,
5562 had baseline and follow-up EDSS scores and were included in the analysis (Table 1). At the time of
data extraction, patients had been on natalizumab treatment for a median (25th
percentile, 75th percentile) of 108.3 (57.4, 176.6) weeks.
Table 1.
Baseline characteristics.
Characteristics
TOP patients (n = 5562)
Age, years
Mean (SD)
37.1 (9.73)
Median (min, max)
37.0 (12, 70)
Gender, n (%)
Male
1556 (28.0)
Female
4006 (72.0)
MS duration, years (n = 5545)
Mean (SD)
8.61 (6.687)
Median (min, max)
7.15 (0.0, 43.9)
Baseline EDSS score (n = 5555)
Mean (SD)
3.45 (1.629)
Median (range)
3.5 (0.0, 9.5)
Prior DMTs, n (%)
0
538 (9.7)
1
2506 (45.1)
⩾2
2518 (45.3)
Prior relapses in last year (n =
5561)
Mean (SD)
2.0 (1.01)
Median (min, max)
2 (0, 10)
Natalizumab doses received before enrollment,
n (%)
0
2374 (42.7)
1
1278 (23.0)
2
1010 (18.2)
3
900 (16.2)
DMT: disease-modifying therapy; EDSS: Expanded Disability Status Scale;
MS: multiple sclerosis; SD: standard deviation.
Baseline characteristics.DMT: disease-modifying therapy; EDSS: Expanded Disability Status Scale;
MS: multiple sclerosis; SD: standard deviation.
Disability worsening and progression unrelated to relapse using study
baseline EDSS score as a fixed reference
When the baseline EDSS score was used as a fixed reference point, the cumulative
probabilities of 24-week-confirmed EDSS worsening ⩾24 and ⩾48 weeks apart (i.e.
with ⩾24 or ⩾48 weeks between the reference and the EDSS score increase) were
similar (20.3% and 19.5%, respectively; Figure 3(a) and (b); Table 2). Exclusion of
relapse-associated events reduced the number of confirmed progression events by
approximately 50%. Similar results were observed when the 30-day or 12-week
relapse cutoff was used to ensure that the captured progression events did not
reflect an emerging subsequent relapse.
Figure 3.
Cumulative probabilities (Kaplan–Meier analysis) of 24-week-confirmed
Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) overall worsening or progression
and of 24-week-confirmed EDSS progression unrelated to relapses
identified using a conventional study baseline reference for events
occurring (a) ⩾24 weeks apart or (b) ⩾48 weeks apart or using a roving
reference for events occurring between two EDSS assessments (c) ⩾24
weeks apart or (d) ⩾48 weeks apart.
*Defined as a relapse that was recorded from ⩽30 days prior to the
reference EDSS assessment to ⩽30 days post progression assessment.
†Defined as a relapse that was recorded from ⩽30 days prior to the
reference EDSS assessment to ⩽12 weeks post progression assessment.
Table 2.
Cumulative probabilities (Kaplan–Meier analysis) at 288 weeks of
24-week-confirmed EDSS worsening or progression unrelated to relapse
using a fixed study baseline or roving EDSS reference value
(n = 5562).
Cumulative probability, % (95%
CI)
Overall confirmed EDSS
worsening
Confirmed EDSS progression
unrelated to relapse[a]
⩽30 days
⩽12 weeks
Fixed study baseline EDSS reference
EDSS assessments ⩾24 weeks apart
20.3 (18.0–22.5)
10.2 (8.9–11.6)
10.1 (8.7–11.4)
EDSS assessments ⩾48 weeks apart
19.5 (17.3–21.7)
9.7 (8.3–11.0)
9.5 (8.1–10.8)
Roving EDSS reference value
EDSS assessments ⩾24 weeks apart
37.1 (33.5–40.5)
24.5 (21.6–27.3)
24.1 (21.2–26.9)
EDSS assessments ⩾48 weeks apart
34.9 (31.5–38.3)
21.8 (19.1–24.5)
21.4 (18.7–24.2)
Roving EDSS reference value (sensitivity
analysis)
EDSS assessments ⩾24 weeks apart
29.7 (26.4–32.9)
17.9 (15.4–20.3)
17.6 (15.1–20.0)
EDSS assessments ⩾48 weeks apart
28.9 (25.7–32.2)
17.1 (14.7–19.6)
16.8 (14.3–19.2)
EDSS: Expanded Disability Status Scale; CI: confidence interval.
With no concurrent relapse from 30 days prior to reference score
until indicated time after the increase in EDSS score.
Cumulative probabilities (Kaplan–Meier analysis) of 24-week-confirmed
Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) overall worsening or progression
and of 24-week-confirmed EDSS progression unrelated to relapses
identified using a conventional study baseline reference for events
occurring (a) ⩾24 weeks apart or (b) ⩾48 weeks apart or using a roving
reference for events occurring between two EDSS assessments (c) ⩾24
weeks apart or (d) ⩾48 weeks apart.*Defined as a relapse that was recorded from ⩽30 days prior to the
reference EDSS assessment to ⩽30 days post progression assessment.†Defined as a relapse that was recorded from ⩽30 days prior to the
reference EDSS assessment to ⩽12 weeks post progression assessment.Cumulative probabilities (Kaplan–Meier analysis) at 288 weeks of
24-week-confirmed EDSS worsening or progression unrelated to relapse
using a fixed study baseline or roving EDSS reference value
(n = 5562).EDSS: Expanded Disability Status Scale; CI: confidence interval.With no concurrent relapse from 30 days prior to reference score
until indicated time after the increase in EDSS score.
Disability worsening and progression unrelated to relapse using a roving EDSS
reference value
When a roving EDSS reference value was used, the cumulative probability at 288
weeks in TOP of 24-week-confirmed EDSS worsening between EDSS assessments ⩾24
weeks apart (37.1%; Figure
3(c)) was similar to that between assessments ⩾48 weeks apart (34.9%;
Figure 3(d); Table 2).Events of confirmed disability progression unrelated to relapse (Figure 3; Table 2) represented
61%–66% of overall confirmed disability worsening. Furthermore, 2.4 and 2.2
times more progression events unrelated to relapse measured ⩾24 weeks apart and
⩾48 weeks apart, respectively, were captured using the roving EDSS value rather
than the study baseline EDSS score as a reference (Table 2).A sensitivity analysis using a roving EDSS reference value that required
confirmation of the new reference if it was lower than the study baseline EDSS
score reduced the overall number of identified worsening events by 17%–20% and
reduced the number of progression events unrelated to relapse by 22%–27%.
However, the analysis using the roving EDSS reference still detected
approximately 50% more overall worsening events and approximately 70% more
progression events unrelated to relapse than analyses using the study baseline
EDSS score as a fixed EDSS reference (Figure 4; Table 2).
Figure 4.
Cumulative probabilities (Kaplan–Meier analysis) of 24-week-confirmed
Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) overall worsening or progression
and of 24-week-confirmed EDSS progression unrelated to relapses using
sensitivity analysis criteria (roving baseline confirmed at 12 weeks).
Kaplan–Meier plots show the cumulative probability of events occurring
between two EDSS assessments: (a) ⩾24 weeks apart or (b) ⩾48 weeks
apart.
*Defined as a relapse that was recorded from ⩽30 days prior to the
reference EDSS assessment to ⩽30 days post progression assessment.
†Defined as a relapse that was recorded from ⩽30 days prior to the
reference EDSS assessment to ⩽12 weeks post progression assessment.
Cumulative probabilities (Kaplan–Meier analysis) of 24-week-confirmed
Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) overall worsening or progression
and of 24-week-confirmed EDSS progression unrelated to relapses using
sensitivity analysis criteria (roving baseline confirmed at 12 weeks).
Kaplan–Meier plots show the cumulative probability of events occurring
between two EDSS assessments: (a) ⩾24 weeks apart or (b) ⩾48 weeks
apart.*Defined as a relapse that was recorded from ⩽30 days prior to the
reference EDSS assessment to ⩽30 days post progression assessment.†Defined as a relapse that was recorded from ⩽30 days prior to the
reference EDSS assessment to ⩽12 weeks post progression assessment.
Confirmed EDSS worsening and progression unrelated to relapse stratified by
baseline characteristics using a roving EDSS reference value
Patients in the TOP study population above the median age of 37 years at baseline
had more EDSS worsening and progression events unrelated to relapse than
patients ⩽37 years old at baseline (Table 3); analyses of both ⩾24 weeks
and ⩾48 weeks apart (using both the primary analysis and the more stringent
sensitivity analysis) showed approximately 1.6 to 2.0 times more progression
events unrelated to relapse in older than in younger patients (Table 3).
Table 3.
Cumulative probabilities (Kaplan–Meier analysis) at 288 weeks of
confirmed EDSS worsening or progression unrelated to relapse using a
roving EDSS reference value and stratified by the baseline
characteristics of age, EDSS score, number of relapses in the prior
year, and MS disease duration.
Cumulative probability, % (95%
CI)
Overall confirmed EDSS
worsening
Confirmed EDSS progression
unrelated to relapse[a]
With no concurrent relapse from 30 days prior to reference score
until indicated time after the EDSS score increase.
Cumulative probabilities (Kaplan–Meier analysis) at 288 weeks of
confirmed EDSS worsening or progression unrelated to relapse using a
roving EDSS reference value and stratified by the baseline
characteristics of age, EDSS score, number of relapses in the prior
year, and MS disease duration.EDSS: Expanded Disability Status Scale; MS: multiple sclerosis; CI:
confidence interval.With no concurrent relapse from 30 days prior to reference score
until indicated time after the EDSS score increase.Patients who initiated natalizumab after <2 relapses in the prior year had
slightly higher rates of EDSS worsening and progression unrelated to relapse
than patients with ⩾2 relapses (Table 3). EDSS progression events
unrelated to relapse occurred at a similar rate in patients with baseline EDSS
⩽3.5 (the median score) and with baseline EDSS >3.5 in both the primary and
sensitivity analyses (Table
3). EDSS worsening and progression unrelated to relapse events were
also similar in patients with different MS disease durations at baseline (⩽7
years or >7 years; Table
3).
Discussion
In this study, the use of a roving EDSS reference captured more than twice as many
EDSS worsening events as analyses using the study baseline EDSS score as a fixed
reference. Assessment of changes in EDSS score based on a roving EDSS reference
value rather than a conventional fixed study baseline EDSS reference may therefore
serve as a more sensitive measure to capture events of disability progression in
clinical trials and long-term observational MS studies. To address the potential
variability of the new reference EDSS score used for the roving reference analysis,
the more stringent sensitivity analysis criteria included only events using a roving
EDSS reference that itself had to be confirmed when lower than the study baseline
EDSS score. This sensitivity analysis still revealed approximately 50%–70% more
worsening and progression events than analyses using the study baseline EDSS score
as a fixed reference.Analyses using the roving reference seem especially sensitive to the detection of
events unrelated to relapses. According to the revised definitions of the clinical
course of MS by Lublin et al.,[6] confirmed disability progression unrelated to relapse (measured here using a
roving window of EDSS assessment over an approximate 1-year period) may represent a
reliable clinical diagnostic signature for SPMS. A defining feature of SPMS is
ongoing disability progression, and our analysis assesses only the first on-study
progression event. It is possible that “disability progression unrelated to relapse”
as identified here was in fact due to a subclinical relapse in some patients.
However, because the current definition of SPMS includes patients with or without
occasional relapses,[6] patients with progression occurring over ⩾24 weeks and even more so over ⩾48
weeks would meet the current SPMS criteria. In parallel to the conventional
definition of SPMS phenotype, such time-to-event analysis of confirmed disability
progression unrelated to relapse could lead to a more sensitive and specific
metric-based evaluation of SPMS onset and/or SPMS disease course.The greater sensitivity of this assessment could allow detection of treatment effects
in sample sizes that are smaller than those typically needed to assess disability
progression. In this work, the sensitivity to detect events of EDSS worsening and
progression unrelated to relapses refers to the greater ability of a roving EDSS
methodology to identify disability change. This should be distinguished from the
conventional definition of “sensitivity” used in the context of diagnostic tests,
which refers more specifically to the proportion of true positives identified.[17]Using a roving EDSS reference system to analyze specific baseline patient
characteristics suggests that being part of the older age group but not disease
duration or baseline EDSS score increased the risk of progression. This finding is
consistent with the stronger correlation of age as compared to EDSS score or disease
duration with risk of SPMS onset described in previous studies.[12-14] The similar number of events
detected when applying more stringent criteria for confirmation intervals and
absence of relapse should increase confidence in the specificity of this
measure.A limitation of this analysis is that, as with any assessment of disability
progression, data are missing due to missing patient visits.Caution is necessary if our proposed approach to the assessment of disability
progression events unrelated to relapses was to be applied in the setting of
comparative trials in patients with RRMS because of the bias related to the
influence of post-randomization factors. For instance, any post-baseline change in
relapse rate and/or improvement/decrease in EDSS due to differential treatment
effects would impact sensitivity to detect subsequent progression events. This
potential bias would need to be taken into account in the predefined statistical
analysis plan and more importantly in the interpretation of the results.
Implementation of adequate marginal structural models to account for
post-randomization time-varying factors and interval censoring around the occurrence
of relapses could help to reduce imbalance in the cumulative epoch time in which
patients are at risk of disability progression events unrelated to relapse. Such
prospectively implemented measures would reduce but not completely eliminate bias.
This taken into account, the use of a roving reference system to more accurately
capture confirmed disability worsening or progression unrelated to relapse could be
applied beyond the EDSS to other clinical disability outcome measures such as the
Timed 25-Foot Walk, the 9-Hole Peg Test, low contrast letter acuity, cognitive
function testing,[18-21] or multicomponent endpoints
using various combinations of the above.[22]
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Authors: Tomas Kalincik; Gary Cutter; Tim Spelman; Vilija Jokubaitis; Eva Havrdova; Dana Horakova; Maria Trojano; Guillermo Izquierdo; Marc Girard; Pierre Duquette; Alexandre Prat; Alessandra Lugaresi; Francois Grand'Maison; Pierre Grammond; Raymond Hupperts; Celia Oreja-Guevara; Cavit Boz; Eugenio Pucci; Roberto Bergamaschi; Jeannette Lechner-Scott; Raed Alroughani; Vincent Van Pesch; Gerardo Iuliano; Ricardo Fernandez-Bolaños; Cristina Ramo; Murat Terzi; Mark Slee; Daniele Spitaleri; Freek Verheul; Edgardo Cristiano; José Luis Sánchez-Menoyo; Marcela Fiol; Orla Gray; Jose Antonio Cabrera-Gomez; Michael Barnett; Helmut Butzkueven Journal: Brain Date: 2015-09-10 Impact factor: 13.501
Authors: Ariele L Greenfield; Ravi Dandekar; Akshaya Ramesh; Erica L Eggers; Hao Wu; Sarah Laurent; William Harkin; Natalie S Pierson; Martin S Weber; Roland G Henry; Antje Bischof; Bruce Ac Cree; Stephen L Hauser; Michael R Wilson; H-Christian von Büdingen Journal: JCI Insight Date: 2019-03-21
Authors: Ka-Hoo Lam; James Twose; Hannah McConchie; Giovanni Licitra; Kim Meijer; Lodewijk de Ruiter; Zoë van Lierop; Bastiaan Moraal; Frederik Barkhof; Bernard Uitdehaag; Vincent de Groot; Joep Killestein Journal: Eur J Neurol Date: 2021-11-14 Impact factor: 6.288
Authors: Ludwig Kappos; Jerry S Wolinsky; Gavin Giovannoni; Douglas L Arnold; Qing Wang; Corrado Bernasconi; Fabian Model; Harold Koendgen; Marianna Manfrini; Shibeshih Belachew; Stephen L Hauser Journal: JAMA Neurol Date: 2020-09-01 Impact factor: 18.302